As the final quarter of 2025 approaches, the "Fujian" aircraft carrier is getting closer to its delivery.

Following the convention of the "Shandong" carrier's delivery in 2019, it will first conduct final training exercises in the South China Sea, similar to the U.S. Navy's "Fleet Problem" exercises. After completing the exercises, it will arrive at a military port on Hainan Island, where it will be fully prepared and polished. Especially, it needs to be officially painted with the hull number and deck numbering, painting the large "18" on the "Fujian" carrier's hull, and then waiting for a specific moment to deliver it to the People's Liberation Army Navy.

According to the previous convention of the Chinese Navy receiving large combat ships, a large-scale commissioning ceremony for the new combat ship will be held around the anniversary of Mao Zedong's birth on December 26th. It is expected that the "Fujian" aircraft carrier will be formally commissioned at this time, receive the flag, start the nautical log, and join the combat sequence of the People's Liberation Army Navy.

The "Fujian" aircraft carrier is about to be commissioned, and our long-cherished dream of having an aircraft carrier with electromagnetic catapults has finally been realized. Then, what expectations can China's aircraft carrier force and our aircraft carrier endeavors bring us in the future? We think there are several key points still worth paying attention to.

Upgrades to the Liaoning and Shandong carriers

The first is the upgrade of the carrier-based aircraft squadrons of the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers.

Currently, as the two ski-jump takeoff aircraft carriers of the Chinese Navy, the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers have completed their first upgrade. From the mid-fourth-generation fighter jet J-15, they have been uniformly upgraded to the fourth-and-a-half-generation fighter jet J-15T, and are accompanied by the J-15D electronic jamming aircraft.

This makes our carrier-based aircraft capabilities basically reach or exceed the level of the "Rafale-M" and F/A-18E/F Block2, and the overall combat capability of the carrier-based aircraft regiment has more than doubled. In conjunction with land-based early warning and surveillance forces, they are capable of confronting Western major adversaries' carrier-based aircraft in the medium and near-sea areas.

The "Lightning Carrier" Concept of the F-35B

However, when the adversary's "Nimitz"-class carriers begin to be equipped with F-35C carrier-based aircraft, and the "Wasp"-class and "America"-class amphibious assault ships also begin to be gradually equipped with F-35B carrier-based aircraft, upgrading to "Lightning Carriers," and spreading the concept of "Lightning Carriers" to Indo-Pacific countries, Japan and South Korea have also deployed F-35B on their amphibious assault ships, and the British Royal Navy has made the F-35B its main carrier-based aircraft type.

We still use the J-15T as the main carrier-based aircraft for our two ski-jump takeoff carriers, which is obviously difficult to meet the balanced confrontation needs. Therefore, not only has the "Fujian" aircraft carrier already completed the carrier landing of the J-35 carrier-based aircraft, but it is also imperative to equip the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers with the J-35 carrier-based aircraft.

Considering that the J-35 carrier-based aircraft has better adaptability compared to the J-15T carrier-based aircraft, it is expected that after equipping with the fifth-generation J-35 carrier-based aircraft, the composition of our carrier-based aircraft regiment will be further optimized, and the scale will also be further expanded. More importantly, it will be able to confront and even suppress the adversary's carrier-based aircraft group - considering that the adversary's entire carrier-based aircraft group may not be fully equipped with F-35C by the end of 2026.

Therefore, the J-35 carrier-based aircraft boarding the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers, and our carrier-based aircraft forces beginning to move from the "fourth-and-a-half generation" to the "fifth-generation," is the next point worth expecting in the construction of our aircraft carrier forces.

Upgrades to the Fujian Carrier

If the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers begin to be equipped with the J-35 carrier-based aircraft, what about the "Fujian" carrier itself?

The "Fujian" carrier's carrier-based aircraft force has already been highly integrated. Just the J-15T, J-35, KJ-600, and inevitably the accompanying J-15TD electronic warfare aircraft, as well as some auxiliary support aircraft such as the Zhi-20H and Zhi-20F, the comprehensive combat capability of our carrier-based aircraft force is already quite close to the combat capability of the U.S. Navy's 2025 version, which is equipped with two squadrons of F-35C carrier-based aircraft.

However, for the "Fujian" carrier, this should be just the beginning, not the end - the "Fujian" carrier has a huge flight deck area, strong flight operation capability, and the electromagnetic catapult system is superior to the steam catapult system in performance, with more linear thrust changes and maximum catapult capability, which provides excellent inherent conditions for the operation of various types of drones on board.

The J-50 is Expected to Become the Next Generation Carrier-Based Aircraft

Evidently, with the emergence of the next generation of combat platforms, people have no more disputes about how air battles will be fought in the future - manned fighter jets will mainly take on the roles of situation awareness, information dissemination, and computing core functions, serving as the forward situational awareness touchpoints.

As for high-risk tasks and the deployment of aerial weapons, all these will be handled by loyal wingman (CCA) aircraft, and these CCA aircraft models can be highly specialized and rapidly iterated. The future carrier-based aircraft force will definitely include manned fighter jets, but a large number of tasks will be carried out by CCA aircraft models, which will inevitably become the focus of the next phase of upgrades for the "Fujian" carrier's carrier-based aircraft force.

The large number of CCA aircraft models appearing in this year's "September 3rd" military parade are likely to be part of the carrier-based aircraft force on the "Fujian" carrier. More likely, the "Fujian" carrier and the "Sichuan" carrier will work together - the "Fujian" carrier will carry manned aircraft, while the "Sichuan" carrier will carry drones, creating a scenario of manned-unmanned collaborative operations.

After the "Fujian" carrier forms combat capability with its current three to four types of fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft, it is expected that CCA aircraft models will become the focus of the next stage of upgrades for the "Fujian" carrier's carrier-based aircraft force, not only enhancing the "Fujian" carrier's combat capability, but also paving the way for the future compilation and operational use of the carrier-based aircraft force of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carriers.

Therefore, the upgrade of the "Fujian" carrier's carrier-based aircraft force, especially the use of various types of drones on board and improvements in air-sea combat tactics, will become another point worth looking forward to in the construction of China's aircraft carrier forces.

Future Aircraft Carrier Construction

Based on the current equipment progress, it is expected that the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" carriers will be equipped with the J-35, and the "Fujian" carrier will form combat capability while carrying loyal wingman (CCA) aircraft models, or working together with the "Sichuan" carrier to carry CCA aircraft models, all of which will be completed before 2030.

At that time, the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier force will adjust to the optimal state, and its comprehensive combat capability will not be lower than, and may even partially exceed, the two "Nimitz"-class carriers of the adversary, sufficient to undertake important missions in the anti-access/area denial tasks in the Western Pacific. However, at that time, the construction of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier force was just the prelude to the explosion.

After all, we all know that the overall design of the "Fujian" carrier is actually determined in the 2010s, with a tonnage of over 80,000 tons, and the ship's tonnage and flight deck design are not as good as the "Nimitz"-class carrier, and like the U.S. Navy's "Forrestal"-class carrier, there is a problem of the flame deflector intruding into the landing deck during takeoff, making it difficult to perform takeoff and landing simultaneously.

Therefore, as soon as the "Fujian" carrier was launched, we have mentioned that the subsequent aircraft carrier construction of the Chinese Navy must solve two problems - the first is to optimize the ship body and flight deck layout of the "Fujian" carrier, and the second is to achieve a technological leap in the aircraft carrier propulsion system.

From the perspective of the former, it probably means that the Chinese Navy will build a larger conventional-powered aircraft carrier with steam turbine power groups, and its tonnage may exceed the "Kitty Hawk" class, considered the pinnacle of conventional-powered aircraft carriers, becoming the largest conventional-powered aircraft carrier in history.

At the same time, the flight deck layout and aviation operation facilities of the aircraft carrier will be optimized. For example, the first priority is to resolve the problem of interference between the takeoff and landing decks on the "Fujian" carrier. Additionally, the current "Fujian" carrier's middle-positioned island, dual elevator design, and Soviet-style aviation support systems are expected to be replaced by the advanced middle and rear-positioned island, triple elevator design, and integrated aviation support systems of the "Ford" carrier, or possibly upgrading the three catapults to four catapults.

In summary, after optimization, the flight deck will become the standard layout for the Chinese Navy's future aircraft carriers, solving the issues of building super aircraft carriers, standard flight deck layouts, and standard aviation operation modes, thus becoming one of the target carriers of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carriers.

Comparison of the Fujian Carrier and the 004 Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Concept Image

From the latter perspective, it goes without saying that it means our own nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Actually, the "Fujian" carrier hasn't even started to be commissioned yet, and related media reports and discussions have already begun, which is quite normal - from a purely technical perspective, now that we have such a large engineering talent dividend, the nuclear power propulsion system, known as the pearl of ship propulsion systems, has no reason not to try.

From a tactical perspective, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers have some technical advantages over conventional-powered aircraft carriers, such as smaller islands and better acceleration. From a strategic perspective, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are a must-have for major powers, especially considering that China's future strategic focus will be to go outward, reaching the Middle East and Africa regions, so nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are certainly a consideration.

It is worth noting that the sortie rate and availability of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are relatively low compared to conventional-powered aircraft carriers. Considering that the Chinese Navy will have relatively heavy fleet battle requirements until at least 2040, it is estimated that the construction of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier force will follow a two-legged approach.

Building both conventional-powered "target carriers" and nuclear-powered "target carriers" at the same time, and there may even be a configuration ratio of one to one or six to four, which is more scientific compared to the U.S. Navy's ALL IN (all-in) strategy of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

In summary, the "Fujian" carrier achieving the launch of three types of carrier-based aircraft is just the beginning, and 2025 is just an unremarkable year in the history of the Chinese aircraft carrier force's construction - because in the next 5 to 7 years, the construction of our aircraft carrier force is destined to be colorful, with new highlights each year. We will continue to keep an eye on it.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553979740210643482/

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