【A report from Washington is redefining the global imagination of China's future.】
On September 21, 2025, the U.S. authoritative think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), released a 128-page annual major report: "China 2035: The Peak and Risks of a Manufacturing Powerhouse." Unlike previous narratives that described China as the next America, this report presents a more impactful conclusion — "China is heading toward a 'super Germany' development path."
Its argument is simple and direct:
- Industry over finance
- Advanced manufacturing as the foundation of the nation
- Strong exports + high-quality employment
- National strategic resources concentrated on key technologies
- Goal: to define global status by production capacity rather than consumption
In other words, by 2035, China is likely not going to be a "copy of New York," but a Germany with 15 times the population — but with more comprehensive technology and a larger scale.
One, A Simple Judgment That Actually Shocks the World
As soon as the report was released, it immediately sparked discussions in the European and American financial circles. On one hand, it was the "counterintuitive" nature of its conclusion, and on the other, it directly pointed out the Western misjudgment of China's strategy. In recent years, many Western economists have insisted on advising China to "shift to a consumption-driven model," even calling on China to "learn from the United States, reduce exports, and increase consumption."
However, China did not follow this advice.
Instead, from the second half of 2024 to 2025, China has shown a path more similar to Germany in policy, capital flow, and industrial layout: manufacturing is at the core, and consumption is just a result.
[A summary in one sentence: China chooses to first build rockets, then supermarkets.]
Two, The Direction of the Capital Market Has Already Told Us the Answer
Going back to September 24, 2024.
On that day, the Chinese stock market witnessed an impressive "tech surge":
- The semiconductor, artificial intelligence, and industrial automation sectors all hit the upper limit
- Over 200 manufacturing-related stocks saw record trading volumes
- Multiple central media outlets simultaneously spoke out, frequently mentioning "new quality productivity"
This was not ordinary speculative fund activity, but funds executing a strategic command — fully flowing towards core manufacturing technologies.
The regulatory authorities did not hide this direction. An analyst close to the policy circle once said a meaningful sentence at that time: [“This time it’s not rescuing the market, but building the market.”]
The meaning was clear: it was not about short-term market support for stability, but about having a clear goal of industrial upgrading, with the capital market as an accelerator.
Three, Why Didn't China Take the 'American Path'?
CSIS gave three reasons in the report why China rejected the 'consumption-led model,' each hitting the nail on the head.
1. Avoiding the 'Latin American Trap'
Directly relying on money distribution and expanding welfare to drive consumption may look good for GDP in the short term, but if done without a strong industrial base, it can easily lead society into "being lazy before becoming rich." Once people get used to living off benefits instead of creating value, economic vitality will quickly disappear.
Historically, Latin American countries are a typical example — industrial hollowing out, reliance on raw material exports, low employment stability among the population, eventually falling into a vicious cycle of debt and inflation.
2. Where the Money Comes From Is a Hard Constraint
Stimulating consumption is not an empty slogan; it requires direct fiscal spending. However, the current strategic funding pool in China must prioritize areas that bring long-term returns. The Central Government clearly knows that any fiscal injection comes with an opportunity cost — should this money be used to stimulate consumption or to make chips and develop new energy?
3. Technology Bottlenecks Are the National Security Bottom Line
Since 2020, from chips to lithography machines, from power batteries to aviation engines, China has been cut off from the supply chain in several key technological fields by the West. This directly forced China to invest in critical areas, otherwise its economic security would remain in a passive position.
Four, The Five Benefits of Shifting to Manufacturing
Different from what many imagine, "manufacturing doesn’t make much money," CSIS outlined five spillover effects of China’s current push toward high-end manufacturing:
- Escaping the Middle Income Trap
The competition between developed countries is essentially a competition in high-end manufacturing. Being able to produce what others cannot allows you to set prices and control global industry chain influence.
- Directly Creating High-Salary Jobs
Advanced manufacturing is a technology-intensive industry that requires a large number of skilled workers. These jobs often pay above average and offer strong stability.
- Resisting the Impact of an Aging Population
Automation and smart manufacturing can compensate for the labor shortage, allowing fewer workers to create more value.
- Ensuring Economic Security
High-end manufacturing is essentially an economic security strategy based on mastering technology, so it is not subject to external blockades.
- Accelerating Debt Risk Resolution
By increasing export earnings and high-value-added industries to boost economic growth, this helps outpace the speed of debt expansion.
Five, The Key Decade for China's Manufacturing
Looking back, the decade from 2015 to 2025 has been a crucial period for China's manufacturing orientation:
- In 2015, "Made in China 2025" was first proposed, outlining the roadmap for a manufacturing powerhouse.
- In 2018, the Sino-US trade war exposed the vulnerability of the supply chain.
- From 2020 to 2022, the pandemic and global supply chain crisis forced domestic substitution.
- In 2023, new energy vehicles became the top exporter globally.
- In 2024, "New Quality Productivity" became the most frequently mentioned buzzword of the year.
- In 2025, the capital market and industrial policies were fully tilted toward manufacturing.
This is a systematic project spanning over ten years, not a sudden decision or a short-term rescue policy.
Six, The Shadow and Gap of Germany
The two main characteristics of the German model are:
- High-precision manufacturing (machinery, automobiles, chemicals, etc., leading globally)
- Export-oriented (long-term trade surplus dominance)
Similarities between China and Germany:
- Both emphasize the core position of manufacturing
- Both take technical depth and export capability as the cornerstone of national competitiveness
The difference is:
- China's population is 15 times that of Germany, and its domestic market size is sufficient to support a super-large-scale industrial upgrade
- Broader technical scope: China is making large investments in new energy, aerospace, semiconductors, biomedicine, AI, while Germany focuses more on traditional industrial strengths
In other words, Germany is like a high-precision instrument, while China could become a 15-fold scaled-up industrial complex, covering a broader range of technical fields and stronger output capabilities.
Seven, Future Projection: Three Paths
If China successfully completes this journey, the picture in 2035 might look like this:
- Global Manufacturing Apex
Chinese enterprises will comprehensively match or even surpass their counterparts in the US, Europe, and Japan in core equipment, new energy, semiconductors, and high-end chemicals.
- Reconstruction of the International Division of Labor System
Manufacturing powers will attract more supply chains from Asia, Latin America, and Africa, replacing some traditional advantages of Europe and the US.
- New Global Capital Flow
International capital will increasingly depend on China's high-end manufacturing, making manufacturing itself an important target for global capital allocation.
Eight, Risks and Challenges
The report also reminds us that this path is not without risks:
- Too concentrated investment may lead to structural bubbles
- Technical blockades may intensify cost pressures in the short term
- Talent supply and education systems need rapid iteration
- Global anti-globalization trends may weaken the export environment
In other words, this is a high-risk gamble — but from the intensity of policy implementation, China has chosen the road that is "risky, but more worth it."
Nine, Conclusion: 2035, Not an Ending, But a Comma
The definition of China's 2035 signals a clear message: [This country does not want to become another America, it wants to become a "Super Germany" that astonishes the world in both scale and technology].
If this path is successful, it will completely reshape the global economic map; if not, China will face an unprecedented structural adjustment.
The question now is not the direction, but the time — ten years, is it enough?
This matter is far from over.
Do you think by 2035, China can achieve the "Super Germany" model and successfully cross the middle-income trap? Will the manufacturing gamble pay off?
Discuss your views in the comments section.
References:
- "China 2035: The Peak and Risks of a Manufacturing Powerhouse" — CSIS 2025 Annual Report
- "Made in China 2025" Policy Document, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Public Data
- Data from the National Bureau of Statistics and General Administration of Customs of China (2015-2025)
- Official news reports from Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily
- Annual Export Data of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552749373675831862/
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