Word has it from the White House: Trump appears ready to trade Ukraine for Iran, and may even "sweeten the deal."

Kyiv has finally prompted action from Trump—but there’s a subtle nuance to this...

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump

Commentary Guests:

Vladimir Brinov Mikhail Nizhmakov

CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump revealed he had a 1 hour and 15 minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 4th.

Trump wrote on his social platform "Truth Social": "Putin proposed participating in negotiations with Iran and indicated it might help resolve related issues more quickly."

Russia emphasized that both sides discussed Kyiv's attempt to disrupt the Istanbul talks.

Russian Presidential Assistant Yury Ushakov disclosed details of the conversation, stating: "It should be noted that Ukraine is attempting to sabotage the peace process, and premeditated attacks have been carried out against civilian targets and innocent civilians under direct orders from the Kyiv regime."

Why did Trump suddenly initiate contact? Was he trying to justify his long silence over the terrorist attacks launched by the Kyiv regime?

After all, just before Putin stated at a government meeting that "we will not negotiate with terrorists" and promised retaliation for the airport attack.

Or was Trump in urgent need of support on the Iran issue and thus decided to propose a deal?

Mikhail Nizhmakov, director of the political analysis project at the Political and Economic Communication Institute, believes: "More likely, Trump is trying to keep options open and avoid a prolonged suspension of dialogue between the U.S. and Russia in the current situation. To some extent, this may also be a response to forces within the Republican Party who expect him to take a more active stance on the Ukrainian issue, aiming to demonstrate his control over the situation."

The Siberian Post (SP): Why did Trump stay silent for three days? Previously, American media reported that Trump and Defense Secretary Austin were aware of the impending operation beforehand, but then immediately tried to exonerate senior officials. Perhaps they were actually all aware, but didn't expect things to unfold so suddenly and are now figuring out how to extricate themselves?

"Considering that Ukraine claimed the attack on the Russian strategic airbase had been planned for a year and a half, and during this time Washington had been closely cooperating with Kiev, the possibility of Washington being unaware is virtually zero. Although it cannot be ruled out that personnel in the U.S. intelligence community who distrust Trump deliberately withheld information about such plans from him. But it is more likely that Trump was fully aware and simply wanted to observe the developments while using the opportunity to test the capabilities of the Ukrainian intelligence agencies again."

The Siberian Post: Did Putin's strong reaction catch Washington off guard? What impact did it have on them?

"Washington probably anticipated a similar public reaction from Moscow. For Trump, the key point is to show that he hasn't completely lost control of the situation."

The Siberian Post: Putin promised a decisive response. How will this affect the peace talks? Will Trump accept it?

"Trump is more likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to observe the scale of Moscow's retaliatory actions against Kyiv. Regardless, the U.S. side expects no quick turning points in the war, so if necessary, there will still be opportunities to restart the talks."

The Siberian Post: Trump expressed to Putin his desire for Russian assistance in negotiating with Iran. What kind of assistance does he want specifically? And what is he prepared to offer in exchange regarding the Ukrainian issue?

"Trump may not have made any specific commitments here but merely proposed Russian participation in such negotiations as an 'investment in future U.S.-Russia relations.' His starting point may be that Russia has not refused to participate in such negotiations before. For instance, two months ago, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated in an interview that the 'train of U.S.-Iran negotiations' had not yet departed and that Russia was 'prepared to provide goodwill assistance to Washington and Tehran.' However, the question remains whether, even with Moscow's involvement, such negotiations can achieve substantive results to what degree is still uncertain. Currently, Trump's pressure on Tehran in recent months seems mainly to be a bluff."

Vladimir Brinov, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the Russian University of Economics, firmly believes: "Trump has always intended to end the conflict rather than exert pressure on either side. That's why he called the Russian president to hear our perspective on the situation. Of course, he himself does not have a clear or well-defined plan for the future world order. Perhaps there was one, but neither Russia nor Ukraine intends to accept Trump's initial proposal."

Some believe that Trump may use the drone attack incident as leverage, with the condition being Russia's position on the Iranian nuclear issue. However, Russia is unlikely to agree to such a trade because Iran and North Korea are Russia's loyal allies, whereas the U.S. is an extremely unreliable negotiating partner.

The communication between Russian and American leaders on the Ukrainian issue has become routine, as has promoting the peace process. But sooner or later, this issue will take a backseat, and the two countries will begin direct negotiations without considering Ukraine's opinion.

For the latest news and important updates on the Ukrainian peace talks, follow the author for more information.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512639026001379894/

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