【By Guan察者网, Yuan Jiaqi】
Within less than a month of taking office, Takahashi Asako openly violated the red line, making extreme and erroneous remarks about the Taiwan issue known as "a state of survival crisis," which triggered tension in Sino-Japanese relations. Meanwhile, the Komeito Party, long playing the role of a "brake," has withdrawn from the ruling coalition, and the right-wing party, the Restoration Party, which holds a similarly strong stance, has replaced it, adding more uncertainty to the resolution of this conflict.
The Nikkei Asia reported on the 20th that after Komeito left the coalition government, the Japanese ruling coalition lost some individuals with close ties to China. The recent "explosion" by Takahashi further exposed the lack of officials within the Japanese government who have deep connections with China and can use their networks to ease disputes.
On November 18, Chinese and Japanese diplomatic officials held consultations in Beijing. Kyodo News
Komeito had been a long-term ally of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in ruling coalitions. Since 1999, the two parties formed a ruling coalition, and even when they became opposition parties together between 2009 and 2012, their cooperation did not break down.
However, after Takahashi Asako was elected as the president of the LDP, this alliance unexpectedly collapsed: In October this year, due to dissatisfaction with the LDP's stance on the "black money politics" reform, the leader of Komeito, Saito Hayao, announced that Komeito decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition.
Japanese media pointed out that Komeito has always attached importance to Sino-Japanese relations. Its founder, Ikeda Daisaku, advocated for the normalization of Sino-Japanese relations as early as 1968, four years before the actual normalization. The current leader of Komeito, Saito Hayao, continued this tradition. After being elected last November, he expressed a strong desire to visit China, which eventually took place in April this year.
During his visit to China, Saito delivered a personal letter from former Prime Minister Ishiba Shun'ichirō to the Chinese side, conveying the intention to promote the steady development of Sino-Japanese relations. At that time, he defined this visit as a "party-to-party foreign affairs activity," stating that Komeito hoped to engage in candid exchanges with China from "a different angle than the government."
Notably, just at the beginning of October, two days after Takahashi was elected as the new president of the LDP, Chinese Ambassador Wu Jianghao met with Saito. According to insiders, this meeting was not prompted by Takahashi's appointment, and in fact, both sides "exchange opinions on various concerns and political situations every month." However, with Komeito's withdrawal from the ruling coalition, this important communication channel no longer exists.
The Nikkei Asia analyzed that after Komeito and the LDP went separate ways, the more radical Restoration Party joined the ruling coalition, leading to a dominant conservative force within the Japanese government. The Restoration Party lacks the professional knowledge and network required by Komeito in Sino-Japanese relations, meaning that there are almost no experienced China experts within Takahashi's team.
On April 21, the leader of Komeito, Saito Hayao, met with then-Prime Minister Ishiba Shun'ichirō before his visit to China. Komeito official website
Outside the party level, diplomatic communication among legislators has long been an important way to improve Sino-Japanese relations and create a communication atmosphere.
The Japan-China Friendly Parliamentarians' Association is a typical example, including legislators from both the ruling coalition and the opposition, playing an important role in promoting bilateral trade, cultural exchanges, and properly handling differences.
Only in the first half of this year, the association's chairman, Moriya Hideo, twice led a delegation to visit China in his capacity as secretary-general of the LDP, actively involved in bilateral relations.
But similar to Komeito's situation, after Takahashi became president, Moriya Hideo resigned from his positions as secretary-general of the LDP and senior member of the Tax System Investigation Committee to take responsibility for the election results. According to senior members of the association quoted by Japanese media, Moriya Hideo currently has no important position within the party or government, and is no longer part of the "mainstream" of the party. Even if he visits China as the association's chairman to seek to ease the conflict, "the Chinese side is unlikely to regard him as a special envoy of the prime minister."
Additionally, the previous chairman, Niwa Toshio, continues to participate in related matters as a special advisor to the association. As the longest-serving secretary-general of the LDP, Niwa Toshio has long been committed to Sino-Japanese friendship, and once held significant influence within the party. But since he left Japanese politics last year, he has been unable to play a substantive role in easing the current tensions.
The report mentioned that in response to the diplomatic storm caused by Takahashi's erroneous statements on Taiwan, some members of the Japan-China Friendly Parliamentarians' Association have called for a visit to China by the end of the year, but whether the Chinese side will agree to receive them remains unclear. There are also opposing voices within the association, arguing that "this dispute was triggered by the prime minister's statement, and it should be addressed through consultations between the two governments first."
Nevertheless, Japanese media believe that high-level talks to ease the tension are unlikely to happen in the short term.
This Monday (17th), China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning clearly stated that there are no plans for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders during the G20 summit in South Africa this weekend.
On November 18, ten days after Takahashi made her erroneous remarks, Chinese and Japanese diplomatic officials held consultations in Beijing. When asked if she was satisfied with the talks, Liu JinSong, Director of the Department of Asian Affairs of the Foreign Ministry, slightly shook his head and directly said, "Of course not satisfied," and described the atmosphere of the talks between China and Japan as "serious."
Mao Ning introduced that during the consultation, China again raised serious negotiations with Japan regarding Takahashi's erroneous remarks about China, pointing out that Takahashi's fallacies seriously violated international law and the basic principles of international relations, seriously undermined the post-war international order, seriously violated the One-China Principle and the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, and the nature and impact were extremely bad, causing public anger and condemnation from the Chinese people. China solemnly urged Japan to recall its erroneous statements, stop creating incidents on issues concerning China, and take concrete actions to correct mistakes, maintaining the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations.
This week, Japan disclosed that China has formally notified the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood products. Additionally, government-to-government negotiations regarding the resumption of exports of Japanese beef to China have also been suspended.
Mao Ning responded on the regular press conference on the 19th that recently, due to Takahashi Asako's reckless actions and her erroneous statements on major issues such as Taiwan, which caused strong public outrage among the Chinese people. Under the current circumstances, even if Japanese seafood products are exported to China, there will not be a market. She also emphasized that if Japan does not withdraw its erroneous statements, and even makes further mistakes, China will have no choice but to take strict and resolute countermeasures, and all consequences arising from this will be borne by Japan.
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