After nearly 3 weeks of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has also been affected, causing the oil and gas energy exports of Gulf countries to be blocked. However, it is interesting that Iran's oil continues to be exported vigorously to the outside world, with about a million barrels of crude oil flowing into the global market every day. According to external assessments, at the current oil price, Iran earns at least $140 million per day.

Iran is exporting oil boldly under the eyes of the US military

The US Navy is in the northern Arabian Sea. If they wanted to intercept Iranian oil tankers, it would be very easy. But strangely, Iran is exporting oil under the eyes of the Americans, and the US military remains indifferent? What is Trump's plan?

According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, the oil exported from the Persian Gulf to the global market has not reached zero. While Arab countries' oil cannot be exported, Iran's oil exports are unimpeded. On March 12, the global energy intelligence company Kpler released an assessment data: since the war began on February 28, Iran has exported approximately 12 million barrels of oil. Another commercial intelligence service for crude oil transportation estimated that Iran's oil exports could reach as high as 13.7 million barrels. If further calculated, this means that Iran's daily oil export volume is approximately 1 million barrels, while Iran's average daily oil exports last year were 1.69 million barrels.

It seems less than last year's export volume, but energy market analysts say: these are only the crude oil export data tracked on paper. Many oil tankers transporting Iranian crude oil have closed their ship's automatic identification systems for safety reasons. When added together, Iran's oil exports are consistent with pre-war levels, or even higher.

At the current surge in oil prices, the daily book export of oil allows Iran to earn more than $140 million, and this figure is roughly consistent with Iran's average daily oil revenue last year.

The US military has avoided attacking Iran's energy facilities in recent attacks

At the same time, satellite images show that at least 13 super tankers have loaded oil at Khark Island since the war began, each capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of oil.

Theoretically, since it's a war, the US should cut off Iran's crude oil exports, as this is a key way for Iran to obtain "war funds." However, strangely, the US has remained indifferent to Iran's oil exports and has not attacked the oil facilities on Khark Island. During the air strike on Khark Island on March 13, the US military specifically avoided oil facilities such as refineries, pipelines, and storage tanks. So why does Trump allow Iran to export oil under the eyes of the US military and gain money for the war?

Trump said on March 16: It is for the consideration of Iran's future reconstruction. But this statement can just be heard. The answer from Treasury Secretary Bassent may be more practical, saying that the reason the US tolerates Iran's continued oil exports is mainly to ensure sufficient global energy supply.

Evidently, the Trump administration was forced to "turn a blind eye" due to pressure from the energy market. Now that the oil from Arab countries cannot be exported, the global oil supply has already experienced a big gap. If Iran's oil exports are further blocked, the global oil gap will be even larger, and oil prices will rise further. A Washington think tank made an assessment: if Iran's oil exports are further blocked, the global oil price is expected to increase by another $10 per barrel.

Imagine, if the oil from Arab countries can be exported normally, the US military would have already started intercepting oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil in the Arabian Sea, and even directly bombed the oil facilities on Khark Island.

Khark Island is Iran's lifeline for energy, and Trump has been watching this island closely

However, Trump is highly unpredictable. If this conflict continues for a long time, Trump may lose patience and is not unlikely to order the blockade of Iran's oil exports. At that time, the US military may directly intercept Iranian oil tankers in the Indian Ocean, and even bomb the energy facilities on Khark Island.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7618483682357117481/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.