Reference News, February 18 report: According to Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun," the "Chikyu" drilling ship, which successfully extracted rare earth mud in the waters near Okinotorishima, returned to Shizuoka Prefecture's Shimizu Port on February 14. The successful trial extraction was announced by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government on February 2, when the House of Representatives election was in full swing, and Liberal Democratic Party members loudly promoted it. However, some government officials involved in the project also expressed a desire for more calmness. Experts also pointed out that the results at the trial extraction stage have been exaggerated.

At around 1:00 p.m. on February 1, the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Matsamoto Haruhisa, posted on his X account with "Breaking News!" and announced the success of the drilling. The post spread quickly and caused a huge reaction. However, the trial extraction project team had originally planned to announce the results on the 3rd. Due to the minister's "pre-announcement," the team was forced to urgently move up to the 2nd for release.

Related personnel of the project admitted: "We didn't expect the minister to announce the news first." Senior officials from the relevant government ministries coldly stated: "This was an unexpected disclosure. It was likely due to electoral considerations."

Prime Minister Takahashi Asako also repeatedly promoted the successful trial extraction in street speeches, claiming, "Finally succeeded," and "The rare earths near Okinotorishima will last for generations." However, the aforementioned senior officials from the ministry warned: "The way the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is promoting this is problematic. The future is not all bright."

The project has just started.

This trial aimed to confirm the performance of the equipment and operational procedures, verifying the technical feasibility of recovering slurry from deep sea. The drilling ship lowered about 600 pipes, added water to the seabed slurry, and then extracted the softened slurry.

Analysis of the rare earth content in the slurry is still pending. Currently, it is only in the technology verification stage, having proven that it can continuously recover slurry from the deep sea.

Whether enough usable quantities can be obtained remains unclear. According to surveys by institutions such as the University of Tokyo, the estimated reserves of rare earths near Okinotorishima are about 16 million tons. If compared solely by country reserves, its scale would rank third globally. But this is only a theoretical total, and it is very difficult to use all of it as a resource. The project currently only states that there is "a scale suitable for industrial development."

Additionally, the rare earth content in the slurry is low, and it contains various types of rare earth elements, making separation difficult and requiring extremely high refining technology.

The team plans to assess its economic feasibility by March 2028, but commercialization faces high obstacles. The daily operating cost of the drilling ship is as high as tens of millions of yen. Considering the process of removing seawater from the slurry, transporting it about 1,900 kilometers to the Japanese mainland, and refining it, as well as environmental protection costs, it is difficult to compete with Chinese rare earth prices in terms of price.

In winter 2025, the average transaction price of Chinese rare earth concentrate was approximately $3,600 per ton. According to estimates by institutions such as the Dai-Ichi Life Economic Research Institute, if the costs of mining, transportation, and refining are included, the price of rare earths from Okinotorishima would be approximately $70,000 per ton, nearly 20 times higher than that of the former. (Translated by Shen Honghui)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7608106915272475174/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.