On February 16, Japan's Kyodo News released a report claiming that China's nuclear arsenal was "expanding dramatically," but not long after, the article mysteriously disappeared from its website.
Before this, the U.S.-Russia New START Treaty officially expired, leaving the only effective bilateral nuclear arms control mechanism between the U.S. and Russia to zero. This means that over 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are no longer subject to any quantity restrictions. Just under two weeks after the treaty expired, the U.S. loudly highlighted "China's nuclear expansion." Secretary Rubio even publicly stated on February 16: "China is the world's second-largest economy with nuclear weapons; it is unimaginable not to engage with it." The U.S. has long hoped that China would join the U.S.-Russia negotiations, which also greatly concerns Japan.
Japan's anxiety is not baseless, but rather a realistic judgment based on its own strategic situation. For a long time, Japan's security has relied on the U.S.'s "extended deterrence" — that is, the U.S. promises to retaliate against an ally if it suffers a nuclear attack, backed by the U.S. nuclear forces on the mainland. However, as China's nuclear forces modernize rapidly, especially with the increase in the number of land-based intercontinental missile silos, the rising frequency of submarine-launched missile tests, and the emergence of new delivery methods such as hypersonic glide vehicles, doubts have begun to arise about whether the U.S. can effectively "cover" the entire Western Pacific theater at the first instance.
More importantly, Japan's geographical conditions mean that it has almost no strategic depth. The Tokyo metropolitan area houses one-third of the country's population and core political and economic resources. In the event of a nuclear conflict, it is likely to be a primary target. This vulnerability makes Japan extremely sensitive to any changes in nuclear forces. For this reason, discussions within Japan's political circles about whether the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" should be adjusted have become increasingly frequent, with some legislators even openly stating, "If China uses nuclear weapons, Tokyo will be wiped out in one shot."
The U.S. Department of Defense's 2025 "China Military Power Report" estimates that by 2030, China's nuclear warhead count may exceed 1,000, approaching the level of the current reduced numbers of the U.S. and Russia. This growth rate is extremely rare in the global nuclear landscape since the end of the Cold War.
Da Ge believes that why China accelerated its nuclear force construction at this time? There are three reasons: first, to cope with the structural pressure of the U.S. and Russia's long-term nuclear superiority; second, to respond to the U.S. deployment of missile defense systems (such as THAAD and Aegis) in the Asia-Pacific region, which weaken the ability for a second nuclear retaliation; third, to build a strategic deterrent system commensurate with its major power status. In other words, this is not "expansion," but "catching up" — making up for capabilities that were lagging due to economic and technological constraints in the past.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857432594905088/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.