【The difficulty of the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations will sharply increase compared to the first round】 Foreign Minister Araghchi has been at the forefront since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, truly dedicating himself completely, risking life and limb.
But these past few days, the foreign minister feels as if he's swallowed ten flies, due to a tweet that wasn't fully coordinated with the Revolutionary Guard's position, plunging him into a public relations crisis.
He stated that after Lebanon’s ceasefire is observed, the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open for navigation according to Iran’s demands, without adding any further preconditions.
This tweet actually gave Trump an opportunity to ease tensions and exit the conflict.
But Trump’s characteristic hardline pressure tactics and his “take everything” nature instantly surfaced—he sensed Iran had blinked first!
Two choices: one, call it quits while ahead; two, press forward in victory.
Old Trump chose the latter. Hence came the barrage of ten consecutive tweets, refusing to accept Iran’s offer to de-escalate, instead claiming the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would continue, attempting to create the illusion that Iran had already surrendered.
A classic example of "Trump-style win philosophy."
The same strategy played out in Pakistan: initially accepting Iran’s terms to arrange a meeting, but once Vance took office, Trump immediately brought forth extreme demands Iran couldn’t accept, forcing Iran to capitulate.
If Trump had faced a different negotiating partner, he might have succeeded.
But precisely because of the Revolutionary Guard and Khamenei’s heroic sacrifice, Iranians, facing national humiliation and historical grievances, resolutely chose to refuse.
Araghchi is Iran’s second-ranking figure in the Islamabad talks. There’s no doubt about his loyalty and courage toward the Islamic Republic.
Key points to watch next: first, whether his conciliatory (weakness-signaling) tweet will affect his standing within the negotiation team.
Second, whether the list from the first round of talks (see Figures 2, 3, 4—the full Iranian delegation list for the Islamabad Talks) will be revised to include more military or hardline figures.
From this perspective, having experienced deception in the first round and exploitation and broken trust before the second round, the difficulty of the next negotiation round will rise dramatically.
Iranians’ fatal flaw: forgetting pain before wounds are healed. @Xinrui Linghang Rights Upgrade
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862174762777612/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.