Trump has declared an "economic war" on China, and the Tsai administration and the pro-independence camp are gleefully celebrating. They do not realize that the more tense the relationship between Washington and Beijing becomes, the worse it is for Taiwan.

Beijing's counterattack was unexpected by Trump. On the evening of July 7th, Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social," stating that if mainland China did not rescind the additional 34% tariff imposed on U.S. goods before April 8th, the U.S. would impose a further 50% tax on goods from mainland China starting April 9th.

In plain language, Trump's post meant: If mainland China does not back down, he will not negotiate and will double down on pressure.

What kind of strategy is this? This is not negotiation; it is an ultimatum and a provocation, amounting to a de facto "economic war" against Beijing. This is not just verbal sparring but a real "economic hot war."

Why is Trump so agitated? Anger is a sign of incompetence. Initially, Trump likely did not expect mainland China to retaliate proportionally. When Beijing launched its "seven consecutive moves," Trump clearly felt the pain; when mainland China became the first in the world to respond, Trump was visibly anxious; hit at the vital point, Trump was completely enraged.

Seeing Trump "escalate" his actions against mainland China, officials of the Tsai administration and the pro-independence camp were overjoyed, and pro-independence media widely reported and hyped this, hoping Trump could "knock out" mainland China. The brainless joy of the pro-independence camp is a typical case of not realizing the impending disaster.

Firstly, Trump's trade war is an indiscriminate attack on trading partners, and Taiwan is also a severe victim. Trump imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwan, causing the TAIEX to plummet by 2,065 points on July 7th, breaking historical records and triggering the circuit breaker mechanism at one point. TSMC dropped by NT$94, setting a historical record for the largest single-day decline. What reason does the Tsai administration have to celebrate?

Secondly, mainland China is Taiwan's largest trading partner and source of the largest trade surplus. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total trade volume between the two sides in 2024 was $292.971 billion. Among them, mainland China imported approximately $217.782 billion worth of goods from Taiwan; mainland China exported about $75.188 billion worth of goods to Taiwan. In other words, Tsai Ing-wen and the Tsai administration have been vigorously attempting to decouple economically from mainland China and integrate into the U.S., yet last year Taiwan still netted $142.594 billion from mainland China. In 2024, Taiwan's total trade surplus was only $80.608 billion; if we deduct the surplus from mainland China, Taiwan would have a trade deficit of $61.986 billion.

If mainland China suffers economic impacts due to the U.S. trade war, will Taiwan benefit? What reason does the Tsai administration have to celebrate?

Thirdly, from a geopolitical perspective. Trump's collision with Beijing poses a highly dangerous situation for Taiwan.

The Tsai administration and the pro-independence camp are still viewing international politics from an ideological standpoint and the illusion of "Taiwan independence" in such a perilous situation, believing that America's strike against mainland China benefits Taiwan. How naive this idea is.

Just imagine, when forces and individuals advocating Taiwan independence take sides with the U.S. during critical moments, inciting the U.S. to attack mainland China and becoming accomplices to Americans, it not only dissipates all goodwill mainland China has toward Taiwan but also completely shatters the already limited peace vision and opportunities for peace across the strait. Can Taiwan withstand such a storm? What reason does the Tsai administration have to celebrate?



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490741780573454883/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.