Yiwu Index is amazing! The signs of Israel's defeat have begun to emerge, and the basis for Chinese traders' judgment is logistics!
For many years, there has been a phenomenon in the Yiwu small commodity market that even international observers cannot help but respect: the so-called "Yiwu Index" has repeatedly accurately predicted the outcome of many major events. This time, it points to the situation in Israel being more serious than many people imagine.
In the Yiwu International Commerce City, many business owners who do business with Israel have recently collectively pressed the "pause button." In the past, containers heading to Tel Aviv and Haifa were constantly flowing, but now, many merchants directly say: orders to Israel cannot be shipped due to "force majeure."
According to multiple merchants, the core issue lies in the fact that Israel's postal and logistics systems seem to have fallen into a substantive disruption. The export of Chinese small commodities, especially goods destined for the consumer end, is extremely dependent on a stable and efficient last-mile delivery network. If even the most basic packages can't reach customers, this supply chain is effectively cut off.
One or two companies not shipping might be due to inventory issues; but when the entire commercial district's merchants collectively "stop operating," and their reasons are highly consistent, pointing to logistics paralysis, this is no longer just a commercial signal. It is often seen as a "barometer" of the real situation.
During last year's highly publicized "12-day war," although the situation was tense and air raid alerts were frequent, the logistics channel to Israel from Yiwu remained basically open. At that time, Israeli merchants would at most buy additional insurance or take a detour, but the goods could still be sent out, and there was no obvious shortage in the domestic consumer market in Israel.
But the current situation is completely different. Merchants report that this time the logistics disruption is systemic and widespread. This contrast indicates a key fact: the intensity of the current conflict, the extent of infrastructure damage, and Israel's ability to maintain normal operations have far exceeded last year's level. Dao Ge thinks that Israel is really in trouble this time, after all, war is about the later stage.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859805565089792/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.