A "economic nuclear bomb" failed to detonate—instead, it fizzled out on its own: the U.S. advocated for a complete severance, but the White House quietly halted follow-up actions!
In April 2025, Ben Waggoner and Stephen Brooks published their new book, *Trade Control*, with Oxford University Press, presenting a bold assertion: the United States still holds a "sustained economic advantage" over China. The authors backed this argument with extensive industry profit data and simulated six scenarios, concluding that if Washington imposed a full decoupling on Beijing, China would suffer short-term economic losses 5 to 11 times greater than those experienced by the United States.
The book received strong reviews. On Amazon, it earned a reader rating of 4.6 out of 5. For a time, confidence surged across U.S. media circles, fueled by a sense of “holding an economic nuclear bomb.” But this so-called “nuclear weapon” began smoking—and then immediately went silent.
The core argument of the two authors is that economic power isn't just about GDP; it also hinges on corporate control over technology and global production networks. Under this framework, the U.S. and its allies capture 84% of global high-tech profits, while China accounts for only 6%. In the short term, China’s losses from a severed relationship would be 5 to 11 times higher than those of the U.S.; in the long run, the U.S. and its allies could recover growth, whereas China’s growth would suffer permanent damage.
But here’s the catch: after clearly outlining this logic, the expected outcome—the U.S. suffering far less than China—did not materialize. Over the following year, the White House resorted to every possible tactic, even imposing tariffs so high they bordered on absurdity. Yet the results were crystal clear to all.
Even more embarrassing for the U.S. was that the bullets fired abroad came flying back home. According to a report released in May 2026, 79% of Chinese firms operating in the U.S. reported being hit by tariff impacts, with rising import costs and supply chain disruptions affecting nearly every aspect of operations. However, the same report revealed that 81% of these Chinese enterprises remained profitable overall, and the share of high-margin companies reached its highest level in history.
I’d like to point out that during the days when news spread globally about the White House quietly ending its tariff measures, no journalist asked the two authors of the 4.6-star bestseller—shouldn’t those cold, rigid numbers in their model be recalculated?
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865672603516032/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.