After so long, it seems that Iran has not yet collapsed as expected by Trump, and this war is increasingly turning into a war of attrition. The Financial Times believes that when this war will end may no longer be solely up to Trump. Iran is trying to take control of the ceasefire and ensure that future attacks will not come again.

The timing of the end of this war is no longer solely in Trump's hands

A Western official told the Financial Times: So far, everyone has focused on Trump's indecisiveness, but they have overlooked the most important thing, which is that for a country as large as Iran with its own independent ruling system, survival and resistance are the very meaning of existence. Iran sees the current conflict as a war for survival, specifically, they not only want to survive but also make their opponents feel the high cost of this war, so that they will not want to attack again in the future.

All signs now clearly show that Iran is preparing for a prolonged war of attrition, constantly increasing the costs imposed on its opponent, dragging Trump to the point of no patience, making him more hesitant about attacking Iran in the future.

A person close to the Iranian leadership said: Tehran has already prepared for the war to last one year, and is intentionally ensuring that the entire Middle East will face destruction along with Iran's destruction.

Additionally, regardless of whether it is in public or through private messages, Iran has clearly stated that it will only agree to end the war if the US and Israel are explicitly included in the ceasefire agreement, assuring that they will not launch attacks again.

Iran's resilience in resistance is indeed unexpected; they are fighting a war of attrition

An Iranian source further pointed out: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is currently leading the resistance. This elite force of about 180,000 personnel is driven by ideology and essentially faces death without hesitation. Facing the world's strongest military forces, the US, and the strongest air force in the Middle East, Israel, the Revolutionary Guard is using a decentralized and militia-based strategy. They have mastered the logic of asymmetric warfare, so the US and Israel cannot simply destroy this force through airstrikes. In addition, Iran continues to secretly produce missiles and drones in hidden locations, ensuring its resistance capability, ultimately turning this war into an endless war of attrition.

The Revolutionary Guard also believes that the US and Israel aim for regime change. They assess that even if a ceasefire is temporarily reached, the outcome will be the same as last year, and the US and Israel can always return at any time. Therefore, it is better to make the other side suffer greater consequences.

This means that even if Trump declares victory and stops the airstrikes against Iran, Iran may not stop, continuing to attack Gulf countries and threatening the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. From the global energy market's performance over the past half month and Trump's urgent calls to allies to provide protection, it is clear that Iran has highly determined that the Strait of Hormuz is its ultimate card.

Rob Malley, a Middle East affairs official in the Biden administration, also analyzed: For Iran, the current goal is twofold. One is to end the war because intense conflict has severely damaged Iran's infrastructure and military capabilities, threatening the Islamic regime's ability to maintain internal stability. However, compared to ending the war, a more critical goal is to make the US pay a significant cost for this war, so that before launching another war, they must think carefully. Only then can Iran's security be thoroughly ensured.

Iran now realizes that the Strait of Hormuz is its biggest card

Malley also pointed out: Looking at the current development, Iran's strongest weapon is effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Although it had previously made such threats, it was not until it took action that Iran realized it had this capability, and this move has proven extremely effective. There is a risk of "using the Strait of Hormuz to command the world" in the future.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7619175384264802816/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.