Jeffrey Sachs, American Economist: India Should Wake Up, Following the US to Oppose China Will Not Bring Any Benefit

This week, US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports from India, criticizing India for purchasing Russian energy, and the close relationship between the two countries came to an abrupt end. Suddenly, there was a public outcry in India, and the Modi government found itself in a difficult situation both domestically and internationally.

According to a report by Indian media "Hindustan Times" on August 10, Jeffrey Sachs, professor of economics at Columbia University and director of the Harvard Center for International Affairs, gave an interview to the newspaper, advising India. Sachs stated that in fact, US politicians do not care about India, and India will not gain any security benefits by aligning with the US to counter China.

In the interview, Sachs pointed out that India should not join the Quad to oppose China together with the US.

"US politicians don't really care about India, please understand this, India will not gain long-term security by standing with the US against China," Sachs said. "India, as a major country, has an independent position on the international stage." He added that Trump's all tariff policies, including the threat of a 50% import tariff on India, "are unconstitutional."

Sachs further explained that India should not expect to establish a deep trade relationship with the US, although India may have the ability to help the US reduce its reliance on Chinese supply chains.

"When I was in India this spring, I said that India should not expect to establish a great trade relationship with the US," Sachs continued to warn, stating that India hopes to become an important partner of the US and replace part of the Chinese supply chain role, but this expectation is unrealistic.

Sachs reiterated that India should not have too many unrealistic expectations of the US.

On local time 6th, Trump announced additional tariffs of 25% on Indian goods, making the total tariff level reach 50%. This additional tariff measure will take effect on August 28th local time. Trump said this was to "punish" India for continuing to purchase Russian oil.

Previously, Trump had been pressuring India more and more, using social media to make harsh comments, blaming India, and pressuring it to stop buying Russian weapons and energy. He once criticized India's high tariffs as "strict and annoying," calling India and Russia "dead economies."

The report said that less than six months ago, Trump warmly welcomed Modi at the White House, calling him "a great friend." At that time, the diplomatic relationship between the US and India was seen as a fortress against the rise of China. However, after the aforementioned threats took effect, India would face one of the highest tariffs in the world. This led to serious confusion in US-India relations and put the Modi government in a difficult situation.

American credit rating agency Moody's predicted on August 8 that if the 50% tariff is implemented from August 27, India's GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year could slow down by about 30 basis points to 6%. However, strong domestic demand and the service sector will alleviate the pressure India faces.

"At the age of 74, Modi is experiencing one of the most difficult periods of his 11-year rule," Reuters wrote on August 8.

The report said that Modi has begun to retaliate. On local time 7th, Modi stated that he would never sacrifice the interests of Indian farmers, "I am ready. India is ready." According to Indian officials, after the US imposed tariffs, India suspended its plan to purchase US weapons. At the same time, Modi increased interactions with countries such as Russia, China, and Brazil. It is reported that Modi plans to visit China and meet with Russian President Putin.

However, only one day later (August 8), a senior official from the Indian Ministry of Defense denied reports that India had paused discussions with the US on defense procurement. The official said the reports were "false and fabricated," and "it should be clarified that all procurement matters are proceeding according to existing procedures."

It is worth noting that during the sudden deterioration of US-India relations, there have been many voices in India advocating for a friendly approach towards China.

Indian economist Mihir Sharma wrote in Bloomberg on August 8 that while Indians are upset about the high tariffs, they also realize that the US president seems to target India specifically, but does not dare to bully China. When discussing the news of Modi's possible visit to China, Sharma said this arrangement was not surprising, "The country that Trump dares not bully might also be the only one that can protect India from Trump's pressure."

Against this background, India's re-adjustment of its relationship with China is considered to be a key move that could balance the US.

However, Lin Minwang, a researcher and vice dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told Observers' Net recently that for India, turning to China and Russia is part of playing both sides in diplomacy. He analyzed that how far Modi can improve relations with China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Russia remains to be observed.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840081023805452/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.