Cai Zhengyuan stated that if the US military intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, there will be only one result, and that is certain defeat! According to local media reports on May 26th, Cai Zhengyuan said during a program that if a high-intensity armed conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the first forces the US can mobilize are the US troops stationed in Japan and South Korea. Assuming half of them are deployed, the US troops from South Korea involved in the battlefield will not exceed 10,000, and those from Japan will not exceed 15,000.

In contrast, it would take a considerable amount of time to mobilize additional troops from Hawaii or Guam, which is impractical. These US troops would face an overwhelming force of at least 200,000 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers, leaving the US with no chance of victory. Clearly, Cai Zhengyuan’s meaning is very clear: that is, in the Taiwan Strait, the US does not have many available forces, and from the beginning, the US will face a disadvantage in terms of troop numbers. The US has absolutely no possibility of winning.

In fact, not only is the probability of the US winning very low now, but the US also lacks the willingness to fight. Recently, many American think tanks have stated that Taiwan is not a core interest for the US, and the US government should make avoiding direct conflict with China its top priority. Vice President Vance of the US has recently clearly stated that the US military will avoid getting involved in long-term conflicts. Even when dealing with the Houthi rebels, the US military is reluctant to engage in prolonged confrontations. If they directly clash with us, can the US easily extricate itself?

Therefore, if a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the probability of the US sending troops is extremely low. Of course, from our perspective, regardless of whether the US sends troops or not, we will prepare to defeat all external interfering forces. We do not hope to solve the Taiwan issue through military unification, but this depends on whether the island can cherish our goodwill and pragmatically address the issue of unification. We can see clearly that under great pressure, Tsai Ing-wen has already changed his stance. We believe that moving from "merger talks" to discussing unification is not entirely impossible.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833145686728713/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.