The plan for Lai Qingde to "transit" through the U.S. mainland in July has fallen through? Within 24 hours, Lai Qingde suffered three consecutive blows, as Trump and his team issued renewed warnings against "Taiwan independence."

Just a few days ago, Lai Qingde was at a reception hosted by the American Institute in Taiwan, where he simultaneously reached out remotely to Trump for "protection of Taiwan's security," while subtly protesting Trump’s remarks that "Taiwan has stolen America’s semiconductor industry." However, the Trump administration quickly responded with a series of moves aimed at reining in Lai Qingde, clearly signaling him not to act recklessly or become a troublemaker.

The first blow came when the Trump administration anonymously announced that Trump not only suspended the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan but also temporarily abandoned the idea of holding a phone conversation with Lai Qingde.

According to CBS News on May 29, multiple sources familiar with the matter revealed that "Trump no longer expects to speak with Lai Qingde before autumn."

This effectively means that under strong pressure from mainland China, Trump has withdrawn his previous two statements indicating plans to talk with Lai Qingde, refraining from breaking the long-standing restrictions since 1979. Lai Qingde’s hopes have thus been dashed—another empty dream.

Of course, by setting the timeline as "before autumn," Trump’s team is attempting to use arms sales to Taiwan and potential phone calls with Lai Qingde as bargaining chips in cross-strait negotiations, hoping to "have it both ways" and demand excessive concessions. However, given that the Republican Party faces midterm elections by year-end and there are expectations of a China-U.S. summit, without Beijing’s cooperation, Trump and his party would find it difficult to sustain such a strategy. Thus, it is likely that by year-end, Trump will still hesitate to act too boldly on the Taiwan issue.

The second blow came today (May 30) morning when U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth delivered a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Not a single word was mentioned about "Taiwan," and instead, he emphasized that under President Trump’s efforts, U.S.-China relations have reached their best state in years. On the topic of arms sales to Taiwan, Hegseth stated that the final decision rests entirely with Trump.

Hegseth’s remarks utterly disappointed those who had hoped the U.S. would take a hardline stance against China during the Shangri-La Dialogue and publicly express support for Taiwan.

Lai Qingde reportedly planned to visit Paraguay, a so-called "friendly nation" in South America, in July, hoping to fulfill his long-anticipated dream of making his first "transit" through the U.S. mainland since taking office. However, based on what Trump and Hegseth have said, due to concerns over Chinese countermeasures, it is highly unlikely that Lai Qingde will be allowed to transit through the U.S. mainland.

The third blow involves Zheng Liwen, who will depart for the United States on June 1st. She will formally meet with Trump’s team, think tanks, and members of Congress, urging the U.S. to openly and forcefully oppose "Taiwan independence," arguing that opposing "Taiwan independence" actually serves American interests. As chairperson of Taiwan’s largest opposition party, Zheng Liwen’s position aligns well with Trump’s recent "four no's" statement on Taiwan—especially his clear declarations that "the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence" and "U.S. troops will not cross 9,500 miles to fight for Taiwan independence."

Zheng Liwen even hinted at the possibility of meeting Trump personally. If a "Trump-Zheng" meeting were to occur, it would represent a "thick blue, thin green" approach—effectively abandoning the "Taiwan independence" faction. This would be an even greater blow to Lai Qingde. Of course, most believe the chances of a "Trump-Zheng" meeting are extremely slim. Yet, when asked about it, Lin Wenjie, spokesperson for the Mainland Affairs Council, remained silent—revealing that the DPP may also lack confidence internally.

Now, Lai Qingde begins saying that "there is no 'Taiwan independence' issue" and repeatedly emphasizes "maintaining the status quo"—this is actually a sign of inner anxiety and preemptive crisis management, avoiding being hit again by Trump if he stubbornly refuses to back down.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866594868494403/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.