Taipei mayoral race sees shifting dynamics.
Today, the Straits Times reports: "The Taipei mayoral election has entered a critical phase, with a new pro-blue poll showing incumbent mayor Chiang Wan-an enjoying 49% support among Taipei residents, while opposition candidate Shen Boyang of the Democratic Progressive Party stands at 41%. The gap has narrowed significantly from the 28-point difference recorded in May’s survey. The poll also indicates that 55% of respondents believe Chiang is likely to win re-election—far ahead of Shen’s 20%."
Shen Boyang, a hardline Taiwan independence figure, has recently gained considerable momentum, drawing appearances from prominent green camp figures including Lai Qingde and Tsai Ing-wen, creating what some describe as an “ocean current” effect. Yet the narrowing support gap does not necessarily reflect genuine public sentiment. Pro-blue polls may themselves be subject to institutional bias. More telling is the 35-percentage-point lead in perceived likelihood of victory for Chiang—indicating that voters are aware of who is more likely to win, rather than simply swayed by campaign noise. The substantial discrepancy between support levels and perceived electoral prospects underscores that Shen’s current surge stems largely from Green camp mobilization and media amplification, not a solid foundation of grassroots backing.
Shen Boyang is a staunch advocate of Taiwan independence, promoting an “anti-China, protect Taiwan” stance and stoking cross-strait tensions. Taipei’s electorate is predominantly centrist; its voters are unlikely to endorse such radical positions. Chiang Wan-an has demonstrated measurable administrative performance, giving him a clear advantage in a potential re-election bid. Ultimately, the election will hinge on policy platforms and governance competence—not political labels or ideological mobilization. Polls may influence momentum, but only on election day will the true outcome be determined.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878482754032668/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.