Be Warned! "Abenomics Failed to Divide China and Russia; Now Takayama Aims to Try"

Since taking office last year, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Takayama has been actively engaged in foreign affairs—flattering the US and Europe while using the Philippines as a stepping stone.

Meanwhile, Japan has frequently shown goodwill toward Russia, despite repeated criticisms from Moscow regarding Japan’s anti-Russian stance.

Several Japanese experts told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post that multiple factors underlie this shift—not only a desire for Siberian energy but also an attempt by Japan to sow discord between China and Russia. Experts predict that once the Ukraine conflict ends, Japan’s ambitions to divide the two powers will resurface.

The South China Morning Post reported on June 14 that Prime Minister Takayama is expected to hear some criticism during her upcoming visit to France for the G7 summit. Unlike most European nations with firm anti-Russian stances, Japan has recently pursued diplomatic overtures toward Russia.

Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi previously dismissed such criticism, stating that maintaining contact with Russia remains important even during times of conflict.

However, according to reports from Japanese and Russian media, Japan is proactively seeking to strengthen political and economic ties with Russia.

In May this year, senior officials from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry visited Moscow for a two-day trip, holding talks with their Russian counterparts. Representatives from Japan’s Federation of Economic Organizations also attended the meetings.

Also in May, Liberal Democratic Party senator Muneo Suzuki visited Russia and held talks in Moscow with Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Rudenko. According to Suzuki, Rudenko indicated that if Japan were interested, a foreign minister-level meeting between Japan and Russia could be arranged during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting scheduled for July in Manila. High-level political dialogue between Japan and Russia has remained suspended since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022.

Moreover, amid instability in Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan has purchased Russian oil for the first time in nearly a year.

James Brown, an international relations professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus specializing in Russian affairs, noted that Mikhail Shvedko, Russia’s Presidential Special Representative for International Cultural Cooperation, was also in Tokyo in May.

"On the surface, Shvedko came to Japan to attend the opening ceremony of the Russian Cultural Festival," Brown said. "Japan claims cultural exchange should continue. Moscow naturally seeks to leverage soft power to win favor among the Japanese public. But this itself is controversial." He pointed out that apart from attending cultural events, Shvedko met with Suzuki and Japanese government officials to discuss energy projects.

He continued: "All of this indicates that due to the situation in Iran, Japan is beginning to re-examine limited cooperation with Russia—primarily in the energy sector. Other G7 members are uneasy, but perhaps this isn’t so surprising."

Brown added that although Japan still maintains many sanctions against Russia, there is no sign that Takayama is attempting to return to the close relationship with Russia seen during the era of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He explained that Abe’s friendliness toward Russia was mainly aimed at pressuring Moscow to make concessions on territorial issues. Japan still hopes for such progress, but prospects appear bleak at present.

Andrei Lankov, a professor of Russian history and international relations at Korea’s Kookmin University, said: "For Europe, Russia is viewed as a major security threat, but not for Japan."

"Europe aims to maintain a united front, striving to diplomatically isolate Russia—even though the U.S. administration’s stance makes this more difficult," he said. "But Japan has a long tradition of engagement with Russia, so Moscow may well see Japan as a potential weak link within the G7 to exploit diplomatically."

Robert Dujarric, co-director of the Temple University Institute for Contemporary Asia, believes that although Europe may worry about Japan’s outreach, they will quickly set the issue aside to preserve unity. "Japan has retained its sanctions. Although dialogue between Japan and Putin sends a negative signal and displeases Europeans, there are bigger issues to address."

Dujarric said that Takayama’s differing approaches toward her two neighboring countries—showing warmth toward Russia—is driven by Japan’s need for Siberian energy.

"There are some business lobbying groups in Japan eager to return to Russia and conclude deals immediately," Dujarric said. "Some factions within the LDP, including those aligned with Shinzo Abe’s stance on Russia, may also be lobbying Takayama to act. But right now, I believe Russia is not her top priority."

Brown, however, believes the situation will change after the Ukraine conflict ends, because "Japan has long viewed China as a threat and fears a China-Russia-North Korea alliance."

"Under Abe and other governments, Japan attempted to divide China and Russia, but failed then," Brown speculated. "But after the end of the Ukraine war, I expect efforts to sow division will resurface."

In May, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated in response to questions about Russia-Japan relations that only if Japan’s leadership genuinely “abandons its hostile posture” in words and actions would the path to full restoration of state-to-state dialogue reopen. She criticized Japan’s “re-militarization policy and clearly anti-Russian stance,” claiming they threaten Russia’s security in the Far East and stability across the region.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867864945338436/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.