Reference News Network, December 26 report: According to the Taiwan Mei Hua News on December 25, American scholar Luke Thompson recently wrote an article revealing that the Taiwan issue is gradually being incorporated into the political statements of great power rivalry. The recent remarks and policies of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takeda and the United States deviating from "strategic ambiguity" are pushing Taiwan to a more dangerous edge. He believes that Taiwan should not become the thorn used by the United States to provoke China, as this approach not only fails to contain conflicts but may also make regional tensions worse. He advocates that the United States should return to the "strategic ambiguity" that has been effective for the past 40 years to maintain peace.
Political research analyst Thompson, in an article titled "Taiwan Should Not Be the Thorn We Use to Provoke China," published on the website of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the United States, pointed out that Japanese prime ministers have long followed the "strategic ambiguity" policy on the Taiwan issue. However, the remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takeda in November about "Taiwan's affairs" broke previous conventions, triggering diplomatic disputes between China and Japan. He believes that these escalating tensions have not made Taiwan safer, but have indeed worsened bilateral relations.
Thompson further pointed out that over the past few decades, China's statements on the Taiwan issue have remained remarkably consistent: China upholds peaceful reunification, but reserves the right to use military force against so-called "Taiwan independence" secession or "external forces interference." Therefore, if the United States overemphasizes military support or makes "guarantee-type commitments," it could force Beijing to respond.
Thompson wrote that unfortunately, recent U.S. actions have instead reinforced the impression of involvement, such as positioning Taiwan as a strategic location in the national security strategy, implying willingness to defend Taiwan; and advocating military expansion and mobilizing allies to strengthen deployment in East Asia. These signals add "substantial threats," which may be seen by Beijing as crossing the red line.
Thompson suggested that the United States should continue to maintain "strategic ambiguity," and must clearly tell the Taiwan authorities that the United States will not support "Taiwan independence."
He admitted that "feeling safe" is different from "real safety." Hollow and intense political statements may have the opposite effect, making Taiwan less safe rather than more secure.
Thompson also warned that if the United States continues to move toward an overtly confrontational approach, it could push the situation toward the very direction it hopes to avoid. In contrast, maintaining "strategic ambiguity" has effectively maintained peace for 40 years, reflecting a pragmatic diplomacy that values mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence. He called on all parties to avoid exaggerated commitments and political showmanship, and return to a stable policy track that can be sustained in the long term.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7588019380005421604/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.