China's "AAM-15" missile has gained prominence in recent India-Pakistan conflicts (Press Agency)

During World War I (1914-1919) and World War II (1939-1945) [which witnessed the birth of modern air forces], air power was widely used in warfare, and the world witnessed numerous air battles that left a deep mark on military history. These air battles include the Battle of Britain between Nazi Germany and the United Kingdom in 1940, and the air battles between the United States and Japan on the Pacific front - at that time, aircraft carriers were filled with fighter planes that had run out of fuel and kept returning to refuel.

In the early stages of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941, the Soviet Union lost over 2,000 aircraft, most of which were shot down on the ground.

In these and similar battles, the traditional air combat model - based on two or more aircraft engaging within visual range - emerged and developed. Pilots performed rapid maneuvers, trying to shoot down enemy aircraft using machine guns or short-range missiles.

However, in the past three decades, especially since the Second Gulf War, the "close-range air combat" model has gradually begun to decline. Air combat between powerful countries has declined, replaced by aerial bombing against weaker countries and armed groups, and unconventional wars have also risen.

However, the wheel of history is turning again, and state conflicts are once again in focus, whether it's between the United States and China, Russia and Europe, or the tensions between India and Pakistan on the Indian subcontinent. This signals that direct air combat will return to the mainstream.

However, future air combat will not be a replica of the previous "close-range air combat". With the integration of artificial intelligence technology and military aviation, the proliferation of drones, the development of long-range air-to-air missiles, and the advancement of communication networks and radar systems, the air combat model is likely to undergo a fundamental change, and the rise of "beyond visual range combat" is the most prominent aspect of this evolution.

The future air combat will not be a replica of the previous "close-range air combat" (Getty Images)

Beyond Visual Range Combat

Beyond Visual Range Combat (BVR), a military term referring to air combat conducted outside the visual range of enemy aircraft (usually over 30 kilometers). This means that combatants cannot see each other. This mode of combat has been made possible by the rapid development of long-range air-to-air missiles, which allow fighter jets to target enemies beyond traditional ranges.

The concept of BVR can be traced back to the Cold War era, but due to the high cost of long-range combat technology, it was widely questioned at that time. Today, however, it has become the most important revolution in the field of air combat.

To understand why this missile is revolutionary, let's imagine a simple scenario: two fifth-generation fighter jets flying in the air. They are almost identical in all aspects: both have supersonic speeds, are almost undetectable by conventional radar, and both have advanced detection systems that can detect each other. They also have the ability to maneuver to evade missiles and engage in close-range dogfights. The only difference between them is that one carries a long-range air-to-air missile while the other relies on shorter-range conventional missiles.

Both planes can detect each other on their radar screens, but the plane equipped with the long-range missile can immediately strike the opponent, while the opponent's plane cannot. The pilot then decides to launch the missile, which flies at an incredible speed (several times the speed of sound) and covers dozens of kilometers in seconds. The other plane quickly realizes it has been targeted, but it hasn't yet entered the range to react. What it can do is try to maneuver and defend. However, smart missiles are also designed to avoid interference and countermeasures.

What happens? Before the second plane can get close enough to deploy its weapons, the fragments of the BVR missile explode nearby, destroying or disabling it. In other conditions being equal, the side with the longer range will win.

Take a recent real example: during the standoff between India and Pakistan in May this year, Islamabad used China's long-range air-to-air missile, the AAM-15, to counter Indian fighters. Pakistan claims to have successfully shot down five of them, while India claims to have shot down at least one.

This model explains why major powers are competing to acquire this technology. The core idea of BVR combat is to hit the enemy as far away as possible before they can hit you. This creates two competitive areas between nations: one is developing missiles capable of hitting targets from greater distances; the other is developing stealth and maneuverability technologies to enable aircraft to get as close as possible to the enemy before becoming a target for enemy missiles.

Long-Range Missiles

The history of aircraft launching missiles is as old as military aviation itself. Air-to-air missiles have been in use since at least World War I.

However, in the past few decades, countries have been striving to improve the range and targeting capabilities of these missiles. This development has brought new realities and technical challenges to the air superiority domain – from rocket engines, all the way to radar and communication networks.

The success of long-range missiles requires two key factors: a powerful engine that can carry the missile over long distances and guide it; and an electronic guidance system based on an advanced communication network. Regarding the engine, missiles can be equipped with two types of engines. The first is a rocket propellant engine, which relies on solid or liquid fuel. This engine contains both fuel and oxidizer (a chemical that provides the oxygen needed for fuel combustion) without requiring air, making it more suitable for flight in outer space. This type of engine usually has a relatively short range due to the space occupied by the oxidizer tank, but it may have a significant advantage in speed.

The second is a jet engine. This engine requires air to provide the oxygen needed for fuel combustion, making it more suitable for missiles that fly within the Earth's atmosphere. The advantage of jet missiles is that they can fly for a long time because their engines rely on oxygen from the external air. Therefore, they can carry more fuel. This makes jet engines more suitable for increasing the missile's range, although they are slower than conventional fuel missiles.

Sometimes, missiles are designed to be multi-stage, meaning they contain multiple engines. These engines are assembled into separate components, separated by barriers. When the missile is launched, these engines operate sequentially. When the first engine runs out of fuel, it separates from the missile, and the second engine begins to provide additional thrust to increase the missile's range.

Because of the extremely long range of long-range missiles, they require advanced guidance systems based on an advanced communication network, which can provide real-time information about the enemy's position.

Sometimes, missiles are guided by aircraft radar, determining the target's position before launch; sometimes, missiles are guided by independent radar and sensor systems built into the missile itself, allowing them to fly without external guidance. This is often referred to as the "fire-and-forget" capability, where the aircraft's mission is limited to launching the missile, after which the missile takes over its own guidance and course adjustments. After launch, the missile can track the target using thermal imaging within a certain range, without the need for traditional radar.

Other factors that affect missile effectiveness, in addition to basic characteristics such as range, engine type, and guidance systems, include lightweight design (to facilitate loading onto fighter jets), streamlined design, and cost (determining whether the missile can be mass-produced and continuously replaced in battlefield losses).

American AIM-120 air-to-air missile (Reuters)

Intense Global Competition

Given the potential role these missiles could play in aerial superiority, major countries such as the United States, Russia, China, and several European countries are racing to produce, develop, and improve long-range air-to-air missiles, especially in the context of significant advancements in missile technology in recent decades.

The United States is currently leading the pack, possessing the most renowned long-range air-to-air missile - the "AIM-120 AMRAAM" is considered a prototype that a country would emulate when manufacturing such missiles. It was introduced in 1992 and has since undergone continuous upgrades, with its range increased to 160 kilometers, weighing 150 kilograms, and measuring approximately 3.66 meters in length.

Although the American missile is highly efficient, these figures theoretically make it unable to rival China's latest similar missile, the AAM-15 - whose maximum range is estimated to be 200-300 kilometers.

Therefore, the United States is pursuing two separate projects to develop two types of airborne missiles: the "AIM-260 JATM" for the Air Force and the "AIM-174B" for the Navy - the latter being an improved air-launched version of the conventional "SM-6" naval missile.

This year, the first version of the missile was publicly displayed at the "Friendship Day" event held at the U.S. Marine Corps base in Iwakuni, Japan. Given China's growing strength and the U.S. expectation that its adversaries' anti-missile systems will have a range exceeding 1,600 kilometers by 2050, Washington hopes that this naval version of the missile will play a significant role in the Pacific theater.

Europe seems to be catching up with its "Meteor" missile - a missile developed through collaboration among multiple European countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Sweden. It uses a jet engine, with a range of about 200 kilometers. It also features radar that can determine the target's position and distance, with a flight speed approaching four times the speed of sound (about 5,000 kilometers per hour). The missile has been tested on some of Europe's most famous fighter jets, such as the Saab JAS 39 Gripen, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the French Rafale, and the American F-35. Europe is developing a plan to modernize this missile to address contemporary challenges.

Outside the West

Outside the Western world, Russia and China are also engaged in fierce competition in this field. Particularly, Russia, which has certain ambitions - U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Russia is equipping its fighters with nuclear warhead missiles. For Russians who place great importance on unconventional weapons, this is not surprising.

This missile is likely a version of the "R-37M" long-range air-to-air missile - one of the main long-range missiles in Russia's arsenal, with a range of up to 300 kilometers and a speed of about 6 Mach (six times the speed of sound, over 7,300 kilometers per hour). It has an independent radar that can target any aircraft, including fighters, bombers, and command and control aircraft.

Another Russian missile is the "K-172 Novator," originally designed to attack support aircraft, such as reconnaissance control aircraft, refueling aircraft, and electronic warfare aircraft, to prevent the enemy from gaining intelligence and other forms of battlefield support. This missile is equipped with radar independent of the aircraft, with a range of 300 kilometers. Russia has successfully equipped this missile on its aging MiG M-31 fighter jets, reviving the latter.

China, however, is a true pioneer in this trend. For a long time, Western analysts believed that Chinese missiles were inferior imitations of Western counterparts. However, according to specialized military news platforms, it has recently become widely believed that Chinese missiles may have surpassed their Western counterparts.

In the recent India-Pakistan conflict, China's "AAM-15" missile stood out. It is a solid-fuel missile equipped with an independent radar, operated by an active electronically scanned array (AESA) consisting of dozens of small sensors. These radars emit and receive beams, thereby detecting the enemy and firing the missile at 4 Mach (four times the speed of sound) towards the enemy.

This missile is equipped with a two-stage engine, also known as a dual-pulse engine. The export version has a range of 145-150 kilometers. The Pakistan Air Force is likely to possess this model. The Pakistan Air Force purchased this missile to equip the Chinese J-10C fighter jets and successfully shot down Indian fighter jets in the recent conflict.

This missile is the latest version of China's air-to-air missiles. China has developed an stealth version of this missile, the "AAM-15E." Notably, the development of China's air-to-air missiles began in the 1980s. Early Chinese missiles were copies of Soviet missiles with short ranges. Later, China made significant progress in the development of air-to-air missiles and eventually developed the "AAM-15."

Chinese "AAM-15E" missile (Press Agency)

New Challenges in Air Combat

Long-range missiles pose unprecedented major challenges to combat aircraft, and pilots need to use various techniques to avoid being hit by long-range missiles. Usually, the main challenge is identifying friend or foe, and so far, modern radar still cannot accurately do this.

As flight distances increase and stealth technology develops, pilots find it increasingly difficult to determine whether an approaching target is an enemy or a friendly one, or whether an attack is needed. Due to concerns that communication systems may be intercepted and expose the aircraft to enemy surveillance, pilots on the battlefield are prohibited from direct contact, making this issue even more complex.

These complexities may increase the decision-making time for pilots. Pilots may suddenly become targets of enemy fire without any warning. At this point, pilots can only rely on existing protection systems on the aircraft, such as laser weapons and electromagnetic weapons, as well as air-dropped decoys (such as shrapnel or smoke bombs), to lure heat-seeking missiles to follow the decoy instead of the aircraft.

In addition to operational challenges, the widespread use of BVR combat may prompt reconsideration of design approaches aimed at improving aircraft maneuverability and changing direction in direct air combat.

Instead, unconventional aerial tactics such as ambushes will take precedence - aircraft lurking at high altitudes and seizing opportunities to suddenly attack the enemy. Therefore, fighter jets will take on the role of commanders, dispatching drones and missiles as pawns or infantry in the initial battle, and intervening when the battle intensifies.

A larger impact is that this new form of air combat will force many countries to redefine their important airspace, as they may be vulnerable to threats from aircraft outside their airspace. As usual, it now forces them to develop long-range air defense systems capable of intercepting aircraft flying over their borders to ensure their neighboring airspace is also free from threats.

This broad definition of aerial security can easily lead to misunderstandings and conflicts between countries, which will be one of the few consequences of BVR combat (the largest and most far-reaching revolution in the field of military aviation in decades).

Sources: Al Jazeera + Electronic Website

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535540839586628146/

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