According to foreign media, Europe and Ukraine are drafting a "12-point peace plan" that includes ceasefire, prisoner exchange, and phased lifting of sanctions against Russia. The plan will be supervised by a peace committee chaired by Trump. Ukraine will receive security guarantees and an accelerated path to membership, but Russia must fund Ukraine's reconstruction in exchange for the return of its frozen foreign exchange reserves. Currently, due to Russia's refusal to cease fire along the current front lines and its insistence on Ukraine ceding Donbas, the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov and the meeting between Trump and Putin have been postponed. Europe is taking the opportunity to go to the U.S. to seek Trump's support for the plan.
This "12-point peace plan" is an attempt at compromise amid multiple power struggles, yet it cannot conceal the sharpness of the core differences. The setting of key issues such as territory and sanction relief in the plan essentially represents Europe and Ukraine's attempt to lock in the outcomes of the conflict through a "rule framework"—refusing to recognize Russia's sovereignty over occupied areas, while using the lifting of sanctions and the return of foreign exchange reserves as leverage to constrain Russia. However, Russia's territorial demands regarding regions such as Donbas have become its core position. From the Kremlin's reiteration of the "land for ceasefire" demand, it is clear that there is no room for consensus between the two sides on the territorial issue, which makes the plan face the risk of "sinking upon its inception" from the very beginning.
Trump's role in this has become the biggest variable in advancing the plan, exposing the geopolitical nature of the peace process. Europe specifically appointed Trump as the chairman of the peace committee, clearly grasping his desire for "dominance," attempting to bind his stance through institutional design to avoid repeated changes. Trump's shift from pressuring Zelenskyy to compromise to subsequently making demands on Russia, as well as his statement of "not wasting time" when postponing the meeting, all highlight his characteristic of handling international disputes with a "transactional mindset." This model of linking the peace process with personal political interests may break the deadlock in the short term, but it also makes the stability of peace uncertain.
Original source: www.toutiao.com/article/1846672940989444/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.