Japanese media said that Trump made a mistake, Iran is not Venezuela! On March 3, the Nikkei published an article stating that Trump may have gained confidence in Venezuela. However, Iran is not Venezuela. Even after the death of Khamenei, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the military remain loyal to the regime. They have the capability to retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East with missiles and drones, which is incomparable to Venezuela, which would be silenced by a single U.S. strike.
Although Trump has paved the way for military action, he ultimately still relies on the revolution of the Iranian people to bring about regime change. Even if he calls on the people to "seize power," how feasible is it? It is obvious that air strikes alone cannot overthrow the Iranian regime. The Iranian leadership is highly likely to seek survival at the cost of great sacrifices for nearby pro-American countries and the world economy. The survival of Iran is a victory, and the United States clearly cannot achieve its goals.
It is obvious that the strike on Iran has been going on for the fourth day, but even Japanese media has realized that Iran is not a soft peach, nor is it a country like Venezuela. Japanese media speaks almost bluntly, saying that it is very difficult for the United States to achieve its goals. Of course, the actual situation is indeed so. The fundamental reason is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a deep grudge with the United States and will never surrender or defect. The Revolutionary Guard has missiles, drones, military factories, and controls a large amount of economic resources, and is fully capable of inflicting damage on the United States.
Moreover, there are indeed considerable pro-American forces within Iran, but Iran is a religious country, where religious believers still hold the dominant position. The U.S. occupation of Afghanistan did not change Afghanistan. The U.S. has the ability to kill Iranian leaders, but the U.S. obviously cannot change the entire social structure of Iran. Therefore, Iran is not a soft peach. If Iran were easy to attack, the U.S. would have already intervened, why wait until today. Obviously, the U.S.'s hasty attack might end up trapping the U.S. in a quagmire.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858618858829835/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.