SIPRI: China Currently Possesses Approximately 620 Nuclear Warheads

The renowned international think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual assessment report on June 8, 2026, outlining the global military landscape, progress in arms reduction, and international security developments. The core finding of the SIPRI Yearbook 2026 is that countries are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power—contrary to decades of efforts to reduce their numbers and roles—while the risks of miscalculation and escalation are rising.

——Expansion and Modernization of Global Nuclear Arsenals

In 2025, nine nuclear-armed states—namely the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel—continued advancing their nuclear modernization and enhancement programs, with most nations deploying new nuclear or nuclear-capable systems during the year.

As of January 2026, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads was estimated at 12,187, of which approximately 9,745 were in potential military use. Of these, about 4,012 warheads were deployed on missiles or bombers, while the remainder were stored in central depots. Around 2,100 to 2,200 deployed warheads were in a ballistic missile "high alert" status (capable of immediate launch), almost entirely belonging to Russia or the United States, followed by France and the UK; however, China and India may also occasionally mount a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime deployment.

United States: A comprehensive nuclear modernization program is underway, but faced ongoing planning and funding challenges in 2025, potentially leading to further delays and significant cost overruns. Additionally, plans to introduce new non-strategic nuclear weapons (tactical nuclear weapons) for U.S. forces would place greater budgetary and logistical pressure on the modernization effort. The Trump administration’s proposed “Gold Dome” missile defense system—estimated to cost $1.2 trillion—would further intensify this trend.

Russia: The country’s nuclear modernization program also encountered difficulties. In 2025, Russia’s next-generation RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) failed again during test launches; Western sanctions and resource diversion due to the war in Ukraine appear to have hindered project progress. Another troubled project—the new nuclear-powered ground-launched cruise missile known as “Kinzhal” or “Avangard”—is reported to have successfully completed flight tests after multiple failures, with a range exceeding 14,000 kilometers. Russia has also begun constructing dual-use forward bases for the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus; the Oreshnik missile previously used conventional warheads to strike targets in Ukraine, most recently in May 2026. Although the U.S. predicted in 2020 that Russia’s non-strategic nuclear warhead stockpile would grow significantly, this scenario has not yet materialized.

Both Russia and the U.S. may see increases in deployed warheads over the coming years. Russia’s growth stems primarily from the modernization of its remaining strategic forces, enabling each missile to carry more warheads; the U.S., meanwhile, could expand its arsenal by loading more warheads onto existing launchers, reactivating dormant silos, and introducing new non-strategic nuclear weapons. Advocates of U.S. nuclear policy are pushing these measures in response to China’s new nuclear deployments. Moreover, with the bilateral New START Treaty set to expire in February this year, the future trajectory of U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear forces remains increasingly uncertain.

China: SIPRI estimates that China currently possesses approximately 620 nuclear warheads. China’s nuclear arsenal expansion is the fastest among all nations, and several new nuclear systems were showcased during the 2025 military parade. As of January 2026, China had filled hundreds of missiles in three large missile silo fields in the north, while accelerating construction of around 30 additional silos across three locations in eastern mountainous regions. Depending on force structure, China could possess a number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) comparable to either Russia or the U.S. by around 2030. Even if China surpasses 1,000 warheads by 2030, it would still amount to only about one-quarter of the current nuclear stockpiles held by either Russia or the U.S.

United Kingdom: The UK’s total number of nuclear warheads was believed unchanged in 2025, but following the 2021 “Comprehensive Assessment” announcement raising the upper limit on warhead numbers, its operational warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future. The 2025 “Strategic Defence Review” reaffirmed the UK’s 2012 policy shift—no longer disclosing the size of its nuclear arsenal—thereby reducing transparency. In the same year, the UK announced plans to purchase 12 F-35A aircraft from the U.S., capable of carrying American-made nuclear bombs, to join NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement, reversing the Royal Air Force’s nuclear disarmament decision made in the 1990s.

France: Continued upgrading its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine fleet in 2025, introducing the enhanced M51.3 submarine-launched ballistic missile and advancing development of a third-generation nuclear-powered submarine. The government also announced plans to build a new nuclear air base in eastern France, deploying two squadrons of Rafale fighter jets equipped with next-generation hypersonic nuclear air-launched cruise missiles. In March 2026, President Macron ordered an increase in France’s nuclear warhead inventory, and the government declared it would no longer publicly disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal.

India and Pakistan: India’s nuclear arsenal was believed to have been slightly expanded again in 2025, continuing development of new nuclear delivery systems, with increasing focus shifting toward long-range weapons capable of reaching all of mainland China, while still addressing traditional tensions with Pakistan. Pakistan continued developing new delivery systems and accumulating fissile materials in 2025, suggesting its nuclear arsenal may expand significantly over the next decade. During a brief military clash between India and Pakistan in May 2025, India targeted what it claimed was a Pakistani air defense installation with potential nuclear-related functions, though both sides took measures to prevent escalation.

North Korea: Continues pursuing a “geometric-scale” expansion of its nuclear arsenal. SIPRI estimates that North Korea may have assembled around 60 warheads, possesses sufficient fissile material to produce at least another 30, and is accelerating the production of fissile materials. In 2025, several new missile systems were unveiled and tested, including the “new-generation” solid-fuel Pukguksong-20 ICBM and missile systems designed for medium-range, high-maneuverability evasion.

Israel: Does not officially acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons but is believed to be advancing the modernization of its nuclear arsenal. In 2025, Israel accelerated construction at a new site near the Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona, possibly related to nuclear capabilities.

Disclaimer: The data above is sourced from SIPRI website reports.

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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867399055858697/

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