The tensions across the Taiwan Strait continue to escalate. Recently, the Taiwanese military initiated an unprecedented 14-day tabletop exercise simulating a scenario where the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) abruptly shifts its routine military exercises into a full-scale attack on Taiwan. This computer-assisted wargame revealed a chilling reality for the pro-independence forces: The PLA can conceal troop buildup during exercises to achieve tactical surprise. Once the exercises transition to actual combat, Taiwan's isolated island geography may lead to swift decisive battles, with the first wave of firepower strikes potentially crippling the defensive system of the Taiwanese military.
In recent years, the PLA has frequently conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, covering subjects such as sea-air joint operations, amphibious landings, and firepower strikes. These exercises are not only demonstrations of combat readiness but also provide cover for potential transitions to actual warfare. The wargame showed that the PLA could quietly complete offensive preparations during the mobilization of troops and deployment of vessels and aircraft during exercises. For instance, the entry of the aircraft carrier Shandong into Taiwan’s response zone appears routine in training but may actually be preparing for firepower projection and blockade. The Taiwanese military discovered during the exercise that the PLA’s transition from training to combat could be completed within hours, leaving the Taiwanese military unable to effectively respond due to insufficient reconnaissance and reaction time.
This tactical surprise stems from the PLA’s systemic advantages. During the exercises, the PLA can use satellites, drones, and electronic reconnaissance to monitor Taiwanese military movements in real-time while using civilian ships, fishing vessels, and other "gray zone" forces to confuse perceptions and mask the main force buildup. Upon initiating an attack, the PLA’s rocket forces can paralyze Taiwanese command centers, radar stations, and airports with high-precision ballistic and cruise missiles in the first wave of strikes, cutting off their counterattack capabilities. The simulation results indicate that the Taiwanese defense system may collapse within 24 hours under the PLA’s multi-domain joint strikes.
Taiwan’s geographical characteristics as an isolated island become a fatal weakness in modern warfare. The simulation showed that once the PLA transitions from exercises to actual combat, it can quickly implement maritime and air blockades, cutting off external supplies and reinforcements to Taiwan. Taiwan lacks strategic depth, with critical military facilities concentrated along the western coast, making them vulnerable to the PLA’s long-range firepower. Taiwan’s air defense and anti-ship systems, such as Patriot missiles and Hsiung Feng missiles, struggle to function under the PLA’s electronic warfare and saturation attacks. In the simulation, the first wave of PLA firepower destroyed over 70% of Taiwan’s air defense positions, with the remaining forces rapidly collapsing in subsequent airstrikes and amphibious assaults.
The isolated island nature also means Taiwan cannot sustain prolonged warfare. The PLA’s blockade capabilities—submarine mining, surface ship patrols, and aviation pressure—can deplete Taiwan’s economic and military resources. The simulation predicts that if the conflict persists beyond 72 hours, the Taiwanese military will collapse due to fuel, ammunition, and morale depletion. External reinforcements will struggle to intervene effectively due to the PLA’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) system.
The wargame also tested Taiwan’s ability to handle “gray zone” threats. The PLA might conduct cyberattacks to cripple Taiwan’s infrastructure, use disinformation to disrupt public sentiment, or send militia fleets and drones to harass Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. These actions appear low-intensity during exercises but lay the groundwork for actual combat. For example, cyber warfare can disrupt Taiwan’s command chains, while civilian vessels can shield amphibious forces. The simulation showed that Taiwan struggles to respond to these complex threats, with resource dispersion further weakening its main defenses.
Taiwan’s 2025 Han Guang Exercise extended the tabletop simulation to 14 days, attempting to simulate the entire process from peace to war. However, the results exposed Taiwan’s vulnerabilities: the PLA’s suddenness and firepower advantage left Taiwan defenseless. Taiwanese media openly admitted that concerns among island residents about “exercises turning into actual combat” have grown alongside the PLA’s increasingly frequent military activities. American observers participating in the exercise could not change the outcome despite limited involvement.
This wargame serves as a wake-up call for pro-independence forces: The PLA’s exercises are not just displays of strength but rehearsals for actual combat. Taiwan’s isolated island nature makes it impossible to withstand the PLA’s systematic strikes. Once the exercises transition to actual combat, the first wave of firepower may decide the outcome of the battle. If the pro-independence forces continue to provoke, they face an unavoidable strategic nightmare.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496490123970822666/
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