Supported by Russia, North Korea has achieved modernization in absolute disadvantage fields one after another.
North Korea on the 17th revealed images of a test firing exercise of a new medium-range air-to-air missile launched from a fighter jet. South Korean military only started a project this year to replace previous US and European-made air-to-air missiles with domestically produced ones, while North Korea has already successfully developed it and conducted a successful exercise.
The KCNA reported on the 15th that Chairman Kim Jong-un personally guided an anti-air defense (air defense) combat and air strike drill of the North Korean Air Force. The drill involved launching new air-to-air missiles and glide bombs from MiG-29 fighters to shoot down cruise missiles and drone targets. During this drill, North Korea first publicly displayed the scenario of shooting with a suspected new medium-range air-to-air missile developed after receiving technology from Russia.
Recently, North Korea has been accelerating the development of conventional combat capabilities that were once considered South Korean military's absolute advantage. North Korea also unveiled an unmanned attack aircraft resembling the American "Reaper" drone on the same day.
Experts believe that with the synergistic effect of North Korea's unique imitation technology and the transfer of Russian technology during the close relationship between North Korea and Russia, North Korea's conventional combat capabilities are rapidly improving. There is concern that with nuclear and missile capabilities already in their favor, as North Korea modernizes its conventional combat forces, the balance of defense power may further tilt toward North Korea.
A North Korea equipped with nuclear weapons has also armed itself with tank and missile new technologies... The possibility of localized war provocations is increasing.
The aerial exercise footage released by North Korea on the 17th showed MiG-29 fighters launching new air-to-air missiles and glide bombs to shoot down cruise missiles and drone targets. North Korea first publicly displayed the new medium-range air-to-air missile at the 2021 Defense Development Exhibition "Self-Defense-2021". After its development, actual shooting training was conducted.
It is evaluated that the shape of North Korea's new air-to-air missile resembles the Chinese-made "PL-12" or the American-made "AMRAAM", especially more similar to the Chinese-made PL-12, which implies that North Korea may have received technical transfers from Russia. Lee Seong-hwan, a member of the National Power Party, said: "In this live-fire exercise, North Korea only demonstrated short-range air-to-air capability, but at least acquired comprehensive technology for high-difficulty medium-range air-to-air missile systems. Considering the recent military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, it might be that Russia transferred the technology."
The airborne targets shot down by the air-to-air missiles were believed to be anti-ship missiles called the "North Korean version of Neptune" and ray-shaped drones. It is speculated that this was done to demonstrate North Korea's air-to-air combat capability against South Korean military cruise missiles and ray-shaped drones.
North Korea has recently achieved rapid improvement in its conventional combat capabilities by utilizing the honeymoon period with Russia. On the 30th of last month, North Korea publicly displayed images of test firings of supersonic cruise missiles, strategic cruise missiles, and anti-aircraft (anti-air) missiles aboard the Aegis-class destroyer "Choe Hyon". Among them, the supersonic cruise missile resembled the Russian high-speed cruise missile "Zircon" launched from a ship. Additionally, the four-panel phased array radar installed on the mast of the Choe Hyon was similar to the radar on the Russian Red Belt spider-class ships in terms of deployment status and installation angle. The phased array radar installed on the Aegis destroyer can monitor in all directions. The composite air defense weapons system of the Choe Hyon also resembled the Russian-made "Pantsir".
The airborne early warning aircraft disclosed in March may have been installed with a radar on a Russian-made transport aircraft "Il" (IL)-76. The South Korean military imports and uses airborne early warning aircraft, known as "airborne command posts," indicating that North Korea is beginning to possess combat capabilities similar to those of South Korea without airborne reconnaissance assets. A military official stated: "Not only did North Korea receive technology for strategic weapon reconnaissance satellites and launchers from Russian physical objects, but they also received drones, electronic warfare equipment, and anti-aircraft missiles from Russia."
The military is concerned that North Korea's recent efforts to enhance drone combat capabilities, combined with the modern warfare experience learned from the Ukraine war, could pose significant threats. North Korea is using drones resembling the American unmanned attack aircraft "Reaper" and the American unmanned reconnaissance aircraft "Global Hawk." On the 17th, North Korea first showcased formation flights of unmanned attack aircraft, and in March, it publicly displayed an improved unmanned reconnaissance aircraft "New Star 4" equipped with an optical camera. The North Korean troops sent to Ukraine have already mastered the methods of using drones in modern warfare, and these drones will become the main pillar of North Korea's conventional combat capabilities when emergencies occur on the Korean Peninsula.
It is analyzed that especially mimicking the appearance of American-made drones is to make it difficult to identify friend or foe with the drones deployed in the Korean Peninsula in emergency situations. An intelligence authority official said: "Kim Jong-un instructed 'to digest the experience of the Ukraine war with our own way,' and to reflect this, North Korea is actively developing reconnaissance self-destruct drones, airborne early warning aircraft, and expanding anti-aircraft combat capabilities."
North Korea unveiled a new tank called "Tamjag" in November last year. It is speculated that this tank adopts active protection systems, long-range fire control systems, and anti-drone defense systems, but the main K-2 tanks of South Korean forces do not have these systems. The active protection system is a system that senses and intercepts threats such as missiles and rockets before they reach the armor of the tank. A military official stated: "The K-2 tank is currently developing an active protection system."
The conventional combat capabilities of North Korea, which were previously evaluated as weaker than South Korea's in all land, sea, and air domains, are being enhanced overall. Yoon Hak-sik (translated name), the secretary general of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said: "In the past, North Korea focused on developing weapon systems centered around asymmetric capabilities - nuclear weapons. Since it was not an opponent in conventional combat capabilities, it was evaluated as seeking regime security through asymmetric capabilities. However, North Korea has now publicly changed its stance, stating that it is not behind South Korea in conventional combat capabilities, and sometimes even surpasses South Korea." There is an analysis that due to the enhancement of North Korea's conventional weapons, the likelihood of localized provocations has increased. Because the nuclear weapons and missiles that currently give North Korea an advantage belong to strategic weapons and cannot be easily used, localized provocations can be carried out with conventional weapons without leading to full-scale war.
However, opinions differ on how long it will take for Kim Jong-un's push for conventional weapons modernization. A former senior military officer said: "South Korean military does not need to nationalize all its weapons; it often imports from friendly countries like the United States, so it can be assumed that it still has an advantage in conventional weapons. But if North Korea rapidly modernizes its conventional combat capabilities according to Kim Jong-un's instructions, it can be assumed that within two to three years, there will be threats in several areas." Conversely, Cha Doo-hyun, vice president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said: "Even if the Russia-North Korea relationship continues for some time, we estimate that it will take 5 to 10 years for North Korea to achieve parity with South Korea's conventional combat capabilities."
There is also an analysis that considering North Korea's economic strength, the strategy of modernizing conventional weapons could negatively impact North Korea's overall economy. Professor Park Won-kun of Ewha Womans University said: "North Korea develops nuclear weapons and missiles as asymmetric weapons to abandon the development of conventional armies and redirect funds towards economic development. If North Korea adds the expansion of conventional combat capabilities to its nuclear weapons and missiles, the country's overall economy will not be able to bear it."
Strategic Weapons and Conventional Weapons
Strategic arms refer to weapons that can "decisively destroy the enemy's ability to wage war" beforehand. They typically include nuclear warheads and their delivery tools such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear bombers, and strategic nuclear submarines.
Conventional weapons refer to weapons other than weapons of mass destruction such as tanks, armored vehicles, field guns, fighter jets, warships, missiles, artillery shells, and firearms.
Source: Chosun Ilbo
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