Expert Interpretation: How the "Kinmen Model" Becomes a Key Measure for the Mainland to Promote Unification
"The 'Kinmen Model' will become a key way for the mainland to implement legal and administrative jurisdiction over Taiwan and promote military or non-military presence in the future; Beijing's overall strategy towards Taiwan has undergone a major shift, moving from a focus on 'deterring Taiwan independence' to a focus on 'forcing unification'; at the international level, Beijing is strengthening its interpretation that 'Taiwan is part of China' and does not need separate representation, while vigorously compressing Taiwan's space to participate in the United Nations system. These all represent the mainland's entry into a new stage of 'political warfare' against Taiwan." This is the latest judgment released in a report by the Washington-based think tank "Global Taiwan Center," which is funded by the Taiwan authorities.
In recent years, the mainland has not only strongly opposed Taiwan independence but has also focused more on promoting unification, with cross-strait unification entering a fast track. This is the general judgment of overseas media regarding the mainland's work on Taiwan affairs.
What is the "Kinmen Model"? Simply put, it is the mainland using comprehensive non-military means to "seize" the waters and airspace that the Taiwan authorities claim as "prohibited or restricted," thereby implementing actual administrative and judicial jurisdiction over Taiwan.
This matter originated from the "malicious collision incident" in the Xiamen-Kinmen sea area on February 14, 2024, where the Taiwan Coast Guard maliciously rammed a mainland fishing boat, resulting in the deaths of two mainland fishermen. Subsequently, the mainland sent ships through maritime police, fishery administration, maritime affairs, and other units into the so-called "prohibited or restricted" maritime areas claimed by the Taiwan authorities, conducting routine law enforcement and "seizing" the Kinmen sea area.
The maritime police are responsible for combating maritime crimes, the fishery administration is responsible for protecting fisheries, the maritime affairs department is responsible for search and rescue, and the marine surveillance department is responsible for development. The cooperation among these departments constitutes maritime jurisdiction. Protecting fishermen from both sides, civilian vessels, cracking down on illegal activities between the two sides, carrying out search and rescue operations, and supervising various marine development operations, implementing administrative and judicial jurisdiction over Taiwan, this is the "Kinmen Model."
Currently, the mainland is not only operating in this manner in the Kinmen sea area but also in the Taiwan Strait airspace and sea area. Mainland aircraft, warships, and maritime police ships have long since seized the "median line of the strait," which Taiwan cares about very much, entering the so-called 24-nautical-mile adjacent zone of Taiwan, and even entering the 12-nautical-mile zone, approaching the main island of Taiwan, gradually breaking through the psychological safety line of the Taiwan independence forces, and implementing actual jurisdiction over Taiwan. This is an important means for the mainland to promote unification, and is described by outsiders as "unification being ongoing."
This entire set of institutional models will eventually extend to Penghu and even the eastern part of Taiwan. The surrounding maritime areas of Taiwan will be internalized by the mainland, and the mainland is always waiting for the right opportunity to formally implement this, realizing "Taiwan is an inseparable part of China" through actual jurisdiction.
Regarding interference from external forces, especially when the U.S. plays the Taiwan card, it is also "the U.S. plays one card, and the mainland seizes one card," firmly grasping the initiative and dominance in cross-strait relations.
Even a Taiwanese columnist named Yan Mo believes that the "Kinmen Model" may be applied to Huangyan Island! The "Kinmen Model" not only does not contradict Beijing's current peace strategy but can also avoid direct military conflict, making this model highly replicable. Implementing the "Kinmen Model" in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea aims to make the U.S.'s dream of weakening China through proxy wars come to naught.
The U.S. consolidating its first island chain strategy envisions connecting the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea into one whole to achieve the geostrategic goal of encircling China. These hasty actions force Beijing to consider the "three seas" issues together and propose as comprehensive a systemic response as possible. Perhaps the "Kinmen Model" is Beijing's standard response to the "three seas" issues because this model pushes maritime police, fishery administration, maritime affairs, and other "non-military units" to the front line, avoiding direct conflicts with military departments to some extent, and is suitable for implementation near China's doorstep. In other words, the "Kinmen Model" should be the "barrier" within China's maritime power thinking.
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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829884978134340/
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views.
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