(NVIDIA founder and CEO Huang Renxun and Sequoia Capital partner Konstantine Buhler in a conversation at Citadel Securities 2025)

"Actions that harm China often also harm the United States, and sometimes even more severely."

Text | Researcher Wu Junyu of Caijing

Editor | Xie Lirong

Recently, NVIDIA founder and CEO Huang Renxun attended an event organized by Citadel Securities in New York.

Citadel Securities released a video of Huang Renxun's discussion with Sequoia Capital partner Konstantine Buhler on October 16, titled "Citadel Securities 2025 Global Market Outlook: Artificial Intelligence and the Next Growth Frontier."

In this discussion, Huang Renxun mentioned that artificial intelligence is giving rise to two markets: "agentic AI" and "physical AI." These two industries represent a market worth about one million billion US dollars.

"Agentic AI" digital labor will supplement and enhance the enterprise market. For example, 100% of NVIDIA's software engineers and chip designers use Cursor (a code generation tool) to assist their work; physical AI enhances labor. For example, robot taxis are essentially digital drivers. He believes that people will have AI that can be embedded into any moving object.

Huang Renxun also mentioned the Chinese market in this conversation. He said that due to U.S. export controls, NVIDIA has completely exited the Chinese market. The Chinese market share dropped from 95% to 0%. "The policies we (the U.S.) implement have caused the U.S. to lose one of the largest markets in the world."

Huang Renxun emphasized that the U.S. certainly wants to win the AI race, and (the U.S.) decision-makers all want to do the right thing and hope the U.S. wins. However, actions that harm China often also harm the U.S., and sometimes even more seriously.

"Policies that harm China often also harm the U.S."

In this conversation, Konstantine Buhler asked Huang Renxun, China is a country that is often mentioned. What should the U.S. do correctly regarding exporting AI computing power to China?

Huang Renxun replied that AI is a new technology, and before taking action, it must carefully consider how to ultimately regulate it. The U.S. certainly wants to win the AI race, and (the U.S.) decision-makers all want to do the right thing and hope the U.S. wins. "However, it is important to remember that actions that harm China often also harm the U.S., and sometimes even more seriously. So, before rushing to implement policies that harm others, perhaps we should step back and reflect on which policies are beneficial for the U.S."

His view is that we must return to the "first principles." In the field of AI, for any computing or software industry, developers are crucial. To create future platforms, we need to win over developers. NVIDIA is a proud American company, and of course, we hope to create American technologies that the world relies on. However, China has about 50% of the global AI researchers, has excellent schools, and shows great interest and enthusiasm for AI. From the first principles, it is a mistake not to allow these researchers to build AI on American technologies.

Huang Renxun believes that the core issue is how to balance "maintaining technological leadership" and "ensuring the world builds on American technologies." A nuanced strategy is needed rather than a black-and-white approach. A strategy that evolves over time and is detailed is necessary. We must maintain technological leadership while continuing to win over researchers around the world, which may be the correct balance.

He mentioned that currently, NVIDIA has completely exited the Chinese market. The Chinese business share has dropped from 95% to 0%. "It is unimaginable that any policymaker would think this is a good idea, that the policies we (the U.S.) implement have caused the U.S. to lose one of the largest markets in the world, dropping to 0%."

Huang Renxun also mentioned that in all of NVIDIA's current shareholder forecasts, it is assumed that Chinese business is zero. Any new progress in China is an additional gain. "We hope to continue explaining, providing information, and hoping for policy changes to the U.S. government."

H20 Troubles Continue

On April 9 this year, during the Sino-U.S. tariff war, the U.S. government had notified NVIDIA that it must obtain an export license to export H20 chips to China (including Hong Kong and Macau). This meant that the export of H20 chips to China was restricted (see report "U.S. Government Restricts NVIDIA's Sales of H20 Chips to China").

On July 15 this year, NVIDIA's official website once announced that NVIDIA was submitting an application to the U.S. government to resume sales of H20 chips to China. The U.S. government had assured NVIDIA that it would issue licenses. NVIDIA hoped to start shipping as soon as possible (see report "NVIDIA Announces Resumption of Sales of H20 Chips to China").

In July, when Huang Renxun visited China, he told Caijing during a media interview that NVIDIA is a huge global company, and the technology it creates is desired by every country. This creates opportunities for NVIDIA to engage with governments of various countries. Governments want to learn more about NVIDIA, its technology, and how it can help their people. This opens a door for communication between NVIDIA and them. "The more I introduce our company and technology to them, the more they can develop policies and regulations that benefit their country." (See report "Huang Renxun Responds to Controversy, NVIDIA Finds a Delicate Balance in the Sino-U.S. Game").

However, subsequent H20 export licenses have continued to face problems. There is currently no compliant way for H20 chips to enter the Chinese market.

Caijing learned from multiple supply chain sources that, conservatively calculated, the shipment of NVIDIA's H20 series chips in the Chinese market in 2024 was approximately 600,000 to 800,000 units. A major domestic AI chip's shipment was approximately 300,000 to 400,000 units. That means NVIDIA's market share in the Chinese market in 2024 far exceeded 60%.

According to Omdia's end-of-2024 market research report, the largest buyers of NVIDIA's Hopper (including H100, H200, and the specially provided H20 for the Chinese market) series chips were Microsoft (485,000 units), ByteDance (230,000 units), Tencent (230,000 units), Meta (224,000 units), Amazon (196,000 units), xAI (196,000 units), and Google (169,000 units).

NVIDIA's 2025 fiscal year (approximately 2024, as NVIDIA's fiscal year runs from January 1st to January 1st of the following year) report showed that its revenue in mainland China (which includes Hong Kong in NVIDIA's financial reports) was $17.1 billion, an increase of 66% year-on-year. Mainland China accounted for 13.1% of NVIDIA's total revenue. Due to U.S. export controls, NVIDIA's revenue share in mainland China has declined for three consecutive years.

During the interview in July this year, someone asked Huang Renxun whether NVIDIA would continue to invest in China or maintain the status quo amidst the ongoing trade conflicts between the U.S. and China.

Huang Renxun's response was that if you want to maintain the status quo, you must increase your investment. The market is developing so quickly, and the competition is so fierce that none of the competitors are maintaining the status quo—they are all increasing their investments. Therefore, NVIDIA must constantly improve every day. China is the second-largest technology market and is developing rapidly. Therefore, it is a very important market, full of vitality.

Currently, NVIDIA continues to make significant investments in China. Caijing learned that there is still a large engineering team in China. This team helps Chinese tech companies adapt domestic models such as Tongyi and DeepSeek to compliance H20 chips, allowing these large models to fully utilize their potential performance on NVIDIA's chips.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562081590487024162/

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