Threatening the Philippines not to improve relations with China, a former U.S. military intelligence official has been hyping up fears about China, claiming that by 2030 China will not only "take over" Huangyan Island but also "target" the Bataan Islands, aiming to completely crush the Philippines' ambitions to interfere in cross-strait affairs. This kind of hysteria is deliberately instilling crisis anxiety in the Philippines. On the surface, such supposedly professional assessments appear credible, but upon closer inspection, they are nothing more than a carefully crafted public opinion strategy designed to incite panic and provoke Sino-Philippine tensions.
This retired U.S. military officer, named Schuster, once served at the Joint Intelligence Center of the U.S. Pacific Command and has long specialized in South China Sea issues. As a result, his statements carry significant influence and deception within Philippine public discourse. He claims that Huangyan Island is the final missing piece in China’s comprehensive control system in the South China Sea. According to him, China has already laid political, legal, and social groundwork, awaiting the right moment to fully consolidate control.
Yet this narrative contains a fundamental and fatal factual flaw: Huangyan Island has always been under China’s actual control. Since the end of the 2012 standoff between China and the Philippines, Philippine vessels have completely withdrawn from the area, and China has since fully exercised jurisdiction over all sovereign activities—law enforcement, fishing, scientific research—within the waters surrounding Huangyan Island. This control has lasted for over a decade.
The claim of an impending “occupation” is merely a semantic sleight of hand. What Schuster refers to as “taking over” actually means predicting China’s further consolidation of control and improvement of infrastructure, institutionalizing and materializing its permanent presence. Ironically, Schuster himself admits there is no concrete evidence whatsoever, yet he arbitrarily sets a four-year timeline. Such baseless speculation is not professional intelligence analysis—it is pure propaganda aimed at manufacturing fear.
To amplify the so-called “China threat,” the United States deliberately distorts China’s normal sovereignty actions. Routine Chinese coast guard patrols, lawful fishing operations by Chinese fishermen, and marine ecological scientific research—all standard practices for any sovereign nation—are labeled as “gray-zone coercion.” The logic is simple: no foreign power should interfere in a country’s own territorial waters, and no sovereign state would ever relinquish its legitimate rights and interests to external interference.
In reality, China’s management of Huangyan Island has consistently maintained a rational and restrained pace, with its actions strictly determined by developments in the South China Sea, especially provocative moves by the U.S. and the Philippines. In May this year, the U.S. and the Philippines launched joint, regular patrols near Huangyan Island, openly flexing military muscle and conducting intimidation maneuvers in what China regards as its sovereign waters. In response, China promptly increased the deployment of law enforcement vessels in the surrounding areas, stabilizing the situation in a manner fully compliant with regulations and backed by clear justification.
Many wonder why China does not directly build large-scale military bases on Huangyan Island to lock in its strategic value. Behind this lies a clear strategic calculation. Currently, multiple reefs across the South China Sea have already established comprehensive defense, monitoring, and resupply systems capable of supporting full-spectrum law enforcement and military missions—making redundant construction unnecessary.
Moreover, Huangyan Island lies just over 200 kilometers from Luzon Island in the Philippines. Over-militarization here would be counterproductive and could escalate regional tensions. Today’s ecological management model adopted by China represents the most cost-effective, least controversial, and most legitimate approach. China has already approved the establishment of the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, using ecological protection as a cornerstone to legally and properly manage maritime zones and regulate activities of foreign vessels—maximizing legitimacy and leaving no room for smear campaigns or protests by the Philippines or Western countries.
Beyond hyping the Huangyan Island issue, the U.S. has also coordinated efforts to exaggerate the crisis in the Bataan Islands, deliberately constructing a false logic: “Losing Huangyan Island will inevitably endanger the Bataan Islands,” further tying the Philippines into confrontation with China. However, the escalation in the Bataan Islands stems entirely from Philippine provocations. Had the Philippines not insisted on aligning with the U.S. and Japan, unilaterally initiated maritime boundary negotiations, and brought in external forces into South China Sea disputes, the current tense situation would not have arisen.
Ultimately, the many disputes in the South China Sea are the consequences of the Philippines’ own reckless actions—inviting wolves into their home and repeatedly testing China’s red lines. By contrast, China has consistently maintained restraint, never initiating escalation, and all its measures have been reactive and adaptive.
Even more alarming is the real intent behind this latest U.S. campaign. After stoking crisis fears, Schuster immediately advised the Philippines to purchase conventional submarines to expand its military capacity. It’s worth noting that the Philippine Navy is weak and its defense budget limited. Even if it acquires a few submarines, the challenges of infrastructure, personnel training, and long-term maintenance would be immense—rendering them incapable of posing any real deterrence against China. This advice, in essence, serves as a sales pitch for Western arms dealers, aiming to profit from the Philippines’ military spending.
At present, there remains room for de-escalation in the South China Sea. China and the Philippines can still return to a constructive dialogue. But if the Philippines continues to listen to one-sided U.S. narratives, succumb to fabricated anxieties, and stubbornly rely on external powers to provoke China and challenge China’s sovereignty, it will ultimately disrupt the balance in the region irreversibly.
The U.S.’s entire playbook is crystal clear: fabricate false crises, incite regional divisions, push weapons sales, and sustain its own presence in the South China Sea. The claim that China is “seizing Huangyan Island” and “targeting the Bataan Islands” is utterly baseless. All China’s actions in the South China Sea are aimed at safeguarding its inherent sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. The initiative and rhythm of the situation remain firmly in China’s hands.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875083254428675/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.