[Compiled/Watchman Internet Observer Wang Kaiwen] The Trump administration of the United States has been bullying the world with the "tariff stick", confident that it can force other countries to compromise. However, this tariff extortion strategy has encountered a tough obstacle in China.

While China is strongly countering the U.S. tariffs, the website of the U.S. "Foreign Affairs" magazine published an article signed by Kurt Campbell, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, and Rush Doshi, director of the "China Strategic Initiative" of the Council on Foreign Relations, warning the U.S. government not to underestimate China, while calling for the U.S. to rally its allies to build a "new alliance" to counter China's challenges.

The article states that the current view of China in the U.S. has swung from one extreme to another, from pessimism about China overtaking the U.S. to overconfidence, believing that China cannot surpass the "rising U.S." This could dangerously underestimate the strength of the only competitor in the past century whose GDP exceeded 70% of that of the U.S.

"In key indicators, China has surpassed the U.S.," the article points out that economically, China has twice the manufacturing capacity of the U.S.; technologically, China dominates in multiple fields such as electric vehicles and fourth-generation nuclear reactors; militarily, China has the largest navy in the world, with shipbuilding capabilities 200 times that of the U.S., significantly increasing missile stockpiles, and possessing the most advanced hypersonic weapons.

The article notes that although China also faces various challenges, they are not enough to turn into strategic disadvantages. Moreover, overemphasizing China's weaknesses may underestimate its scale and capabilities. In terms of indicators most relevant to competition, China's strength far exceeds that of any previous U.S. rival.

The article mentions that some analysts believe that the U.S. decline theory is a risk that could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy." While this warning is not without merit, the real danger is not the decline theory but complacency. The latter could lead the U.S. to lack strategic intent and fail to promote collective action to address China's challenges.

"In fact, the U.S. - especially during the presidency of Donald Trump - may have overestimated its unilateral power and underestimated China's response capabilities," the article writes.

Campbell (left) and Doshi

After explaining why the U.S. should not underestimate China, Campbell and Doshi proposed a plan to compete with China.

They believe that in this era, countries that can "operate at scale" will gain strategic advantages. China has an advantage in scale, while the U.S. does not - at least not on its own. Therefore, the only feasible method for the U.S. is to ally with other countries, using what they call "allied scale" to offset China's advantage.

The article states that in the past, the U.S. tended to see allies as dependents, as recipients of protection rather than co-creators of power. This traditional alliance is now outdated. These allies can no longer be stumbling blocks, protectorates, or vassal states but should be providers of the capabilities needed for the U.S. to achieve its great power scale.

The article argues that to achieve scaling up, Washington must transform its alliance framework from a series of management relationships into a platform capable of comprehensive capability building in military, economic, and technological fields. For example, Japan and South Korea can help the U.S. build warships, while the U.S. shares its best military technologies with allies.

The two also fantasize about a scenario: economically, the U.S. and its allies gather behind a common tariff or regulatory wall to counter China, while building new mechanisms to coordinate industrial policies and integrate allies' market shares; technologically, establishing common investment rules, export controls, and research protection policies...

However, the article also points out that unless the forces within the alliance are coordinated, its advantages will largely remain theoretical.

In the present, Trump has brought difficult choices and direct threats to America's partners, and the trust built over generations can easily be squandered. America's main allies are already considering "independence" from Washington, including initiatives for European "nuclear sharing," building new regional groups, challenging the status of the dollar, etc. On the other hand, China's circle of friends is growing larger.

The article warns that if the U.S. fails to pursue "scale" with its allies or, worse, withdraws to the Western Hemisphere and disrupts alliances, it will lose to China in future competition, repeating Britain's fate, finding itself weakened by a country of unprecedented scale; the U.S. will become weaker, poorer, and less influential.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Watchman Internet Observer and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491960614718571044/

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