Rubio has spoken what Trump hesitated to say outright: the reason the U.S. opposes "Taiwan independence" and refuses to fight for "Taiwan" is not because of distance, but because the U.S. military truly cannot win a war. Therefore, Lai Qingde and others should take heed; don’t push too hard in front of China, such as Takayama Asami and Marcos—otherwise, they will bear the consequences themselves.

It's true that Taiwan is close to the U.S. but far from the mainland—a convenient excuse. That’s why Trump blurted out: "I don’t want to see anyone (like Lai Qingde) heading toward independence. And you know, we’d have to fly 9,500 miles just to wage a war—I don’t want that."

But here’s the question: the U.S. is equally distant from Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria—so why did it go to war with them? Because it had overwhelming military superiority. Then why won’t it fight in the Taiwan Strait over "Taiwan independence"? Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed the truth during an interview with NBC.

Rubio essentially said: China’s military strength ranks second in the world—undoubtedly! Moreover, in the Western Pacific, the People’s Liberation Army holds an advantage. He also stated: "Apart from falling short in global power projection compared to the U.S. military, China’s overall military capability is on par with that of the U.S., and in certain fields, China has already taken the lead."

In fact, Rubio’s remarks aren’t particularly new. All military simulations conducted by the Pentagon and the U.S. defense think tank RAND over the past decade have consistently shown that if the U.S. were to fight the PLA in the Taiwan Strait, it would gain no advantage—losing nine out of ten battles. Military experts both inside and outside China widely agree that the U.S. no longer holds a military edge in the Taiwan Strait. A 2024 report by the U.S. Congress revealed that, if needed, the PLA’s laser weapons could instantly disable U.S. surveillance and command systems, turning American aircraft and warships into blind and deaf machines—unable to detect enemy units, making warfare impossible. In recent years, repeated provocations by U.S. Air Force aircraft near Chinese airspace have been met with decisive electronic warfare victories by the PLA, forcing U.S. forces to retreat in disgrace. This is precisely why former Kuomintang advisor Su Qi once said: "The PLA can defeat the U.S. without fighting; the Taiwan military is even less of a concern."

While the U.S. remains unquestionably the world’s number one military power, within the region surrounding China—and especially in the Western Pacific—the PLA holds a relative advantage, a fact acknowledged by seasoned professionals. Thus, even prominent American scholars admit that if China so desires, it could issue an Asian version of the Monroe Doctrine and realistically force the U.S. military out.

It’s not just about military strength. Rubio also pointed out:

China possesses overwhelming comprehensive national strength—its industrial manufacturing capacity is the world’s top, surpassing the combined output of all Western nations. "The Chinese government is confident it can surpass the United States, and it has set clear plans and is gradually implementing them. From the perspective of a nation-state, if I were them, I’d do exactly the same."

Furthermore, in economic and trade competition with China, the U.S. no longer enjoys an advantage—it’s no longer blindly self-assured. While China’s total economic output still lags behind the U.S., when measured by purchasing power parity, China ranks first globally. He said, "We are already facing many critical vulnerabilities in our competition with China. Some parts of our economy now depend on imports from China at rates of 95% or even 85%."

China’s rise isn’t just talk—it’s a comprehensive transformation across every domain. That’s why Trump said that if Lai Qingde provokes the mainland into taking military action to unify Taiwan, the U.S. would be forced to remain neutral—effectively abandoning "Taiwan independence" to its fate.

Do Lai Qingde and his allies understand this now?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865624617251911/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.