At the beginning of this year, the Russian military announced that it had once again used the "Oreshnik" medium-range missile to strike Ukrainian targets. It is claimed that the missile can release 36 kinetic warheads traveling at 10 Mach, capable of penetrating several meters or even tens of meters of soil.

However, Russian media cited data from China's past "God's Whip" test and analyzed it, concluding that the so-called "earth-piercing" power of the "Oreshnik" missile was greatly exaggerated.

In January of this year, the Russian military deployed the "Oreshnik" (Oreshnik) medium-range ballistic missile for the second time in combat since November 2024, striking military facilities in the Lviv region of Ukraine. According to reports, the missile carried inert kinetic warheads without any explosive charge. The Ukrainian side also stated that "the Oreshnik missile launched by Russia did not carry a warhead" (in fact, it was an inert warhead without any explosive).

Regarding this incident, the Russian website TOPWAR recently wrote an article pointing out that a series of reports on the "Oreshnik" missile have created many myths. According to the official statement after the first combat use of the "Oreshnik" missile in November 2024, the missile has a range of 5,500 kilometers, used a non-nuclear warhead for the first time in combat, and its terminal speed could reach 2-3 kilometers per second (estimated to be 6-10 Mach).

According to battlefield observations by the Ukrainian State Intelligence Service and analysis of on-site videos, the first combat use of the "Oreshnik" missile released six sub-warheads at the target area, each releasing six inert, non-explosive bullets. In the first combat use in November 2024, the Russian state media claimed that the "Oreshnik" missile destroyed an underground production facility at the Southern Machine Building Plant in Dnipro, Ukraine, which was reportedly located 8-10 meters underground.

As a result, many media outlets speculated that the 36 inert bullets of the "Oreshnik" missile could penetrate several meters to tens of meters of soil or even reinforced concrete simply through the immense kinetic energy provided by their hypersonic speed, without any explosive warhead. Therefore, the "Oreshnik" missile has been widely promoted as a technological marvel capable of easily destroying underground command posts, missile silos, and various underground strategic facilities.

This January, the "Oreshnik" missile was used in combat again, drawing widespread attention and triggering another round of myth-making hype. However, the article on the Russian website TOPWAR openly questioned these claims, especially the core claim about "penetrating several meters to tens of meters of soil," citing the Chinese "God's Whip" experiment conducted years ago.

Russian media pointed out that the key factor in the overhyping of the "Oreshnik" missile is the high-speed inert warhead, which reaches 10 Mach. Many people use tank shells as examples, arguing that if such inert warheads are made of tungsten alloy into long, slender rods, they can achieve terrifying "earth-piercing" power. What the United States previously promoted as the "God's Whip" refers to something similar.

The so-called "God's Whip" is a concept of a space weapon proposed by the United States, which involves dropping a tungsten alloy rod from hundreds of kilometers in space onto the Earth's surface, achieving a terminal speed of more than ten Mach due to gravity acceleration. This high kinetic energy can provide significant penetration power against the ground. According to American propaganda, the power of this "God's Whip" weapon is comparable to that of a nuclear bomb, capable of easily penetrating deep underground facilities, even destroying cities.

However, Russian media pointed out that Chinese scientists conducted a verification of the "God's Whip" many years ago with an objective attitude, and published the experimental results publicly. In the experiment, a tungsten alloy rod weighing 140 kilograms, with a diameter of 11 centimeters and a length of 84 centimeters, fell from a high altitude at a terminal speed of 4,650 meters per second, exceeding 13 Mach. These indicators all conform to the theoretical settings of the "God's Whip."

Chinese publication chart referenced by Russian media

However, the imagined "nuclear effect" did not occur; the tungsten alloy rod only formed a crater three meters deep and 4.6 meters in radius. This effect could be achieved even by a regular large bomb, and at a much lower cost. It can be seen that the Chinese scientists' experiments completely refuted the "space weapon myth" speculated by Americans.

Russian media pointed out that the poor performance of the "God's Whip" is partly due to the impact angle and soft soil weakening the impact kinetic energy, and partly due to fluid dynamics. When a hypersonic projectile comes into contact with the ground, its surface becomes like a liquid, gradually wearing down during penetration, losing length, mass, and speed, thus losing a significant amount of kinetic energy.

In short, the speed of a penetrating projectile is not always better when higher. A tungsten alloy armor-piercing projectile that can penetrate 700 mm of armor at 1,650 meters per second may see a decrease in penetration effectiveness if its speed increases to 2,500-3,000 meters per second.

Russian media pointed out that according to the calculations of Chinese scientists, the tungsten alloy rod in the experiment achieved optimal penetration at speeds below three times the speed of sound. If the weight, material, and length change, the optimal speed may vary, but "not blindly pursuing excessive speed" is a basic principle.

Looking back at the "Oreshnik" missile, the 36 hypersonic bullet heads released by the missile, each estimated to weigh about 40 kilograms, with a speed of 10 Mach, have far less kinetic energy than the tungsten alloy rod used in the Chinese experiment (140 kilograms, 13 Mach). Yet, the "Oreshnik" earth-piercing power has been exaggerated by many media to be "tens of meters." However, if the "Oreshnik" uses inert tungsten alloy bullets without any explosive charge, the actual maximum power should be no more than a 3-meter-deep crater, as shown in the Chinese experiment.

Additionally, some media have praised the hypersonic capabilities of the "Oreshnik" missile, counting the 5,000-6,000 degree temperature generated by atmospheric friction as an added value to the "great penetration power." However, the above analysis also explains that the 6,000-degree high temperature would accelerate the liquefaction of the projectile surface, thus increasing the "abrasion" during penetration into the ground. High temperature is not an added value for earth-piercing power, but rather a serious drawback.

Russian media also believe that to counteract part of the negative effects of high speed and "abrasion" (only partially), one crude method might be to use a heavier tungsten alloy rod, for example, weighing more than one ton and with a length of several meters. Such a strange shape and weight of the projectile is impossible to fit into any ballistic missile, let alone the "Oreshnik" medium-range missile, which carries numerous small sub-warheads (with a total length of only 11 meters). (Author: Tao Mujian)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618429462232810022/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.