Local time on June 4th, the Central Election Management Committee of South Korea held a plenary meeting and passed a resolution on the election results. According to the final vote count of the presidential election, Jae-myung Lee of the Democratic Party was confirmed as the 21st President of South Korea.
According to multiple reports by South Korean media, on the day of the vote, Jae-myung Lee expressed his emphasis on the ROK-U.S. alliance, treating China along with other foreign countries, stating that maintaining good economic and trade relations would suffice. Although this might be due to the limitations of election language, it still seemed somewhat cold. By using broad generalizations, he avoided sensitive issues such as Sino-Korean relations. How will Sino-Korean relations develop? Can Jae-myung Lee restart inter-Korean exchanges? How can the social contradictions in South Korea be resolved? In this regard, Guancha Network had a dialogue with Zhang Dongming, an expert on Northeast Asian issues and Dean of the Northeast Asia Research Institute of Liaoning University.
On local time June 4th, Jae-myung Lee was sworn in as President at the National Assembly of South Korea. Yonhap News.
The foreign policy of South Korea is expected to adjust.
On May 26th, Jae-myung Lee posted his foreign and security policy commitments on his social media, stating that he will base it on a solid ROK-U.S. alliance, prioritize national interests, promote pragmatic diplomacy, repair the damaged trust foundation of the ROK-U.S. alliance caused by the Yoon government, and develop it into a comprehensive strategic alliance relationship for the future.
In his presidential inauguration speech on June 4th, he proposed "handling neighboring relations such as ROK-China and ROK-Japan from a practical perspective." Prioritizing national interests and promoting pragmatic diplomacy means that while relying on the U.S. to maintain national security, he also hopes to receive care from the U.S. regarding tariff issues. However, "national interest" and "pragmatism" also mean that South Korea will pursue relatively independent diplomacy, with its core naturally being for its own benefit.
"After Jae-myung Lee's election, South Korea's foreign policy is expected to adjust, and will not fully tilt toward the U.S. and Japan like the Yoon government did. This adjustment indicates that this administration places more importance on Sino-Korean relations than previous ones, at least taking a more balanced stance compared to Yoon's administration. This is also the inevitable choice of Jae-myung Lee under the current international situation," said Zhang Dongming.
Unlike the previous Yoon government and the People Power Party, the Democratic Party, to which Jae-myung Lee belongs, advocates maintaining a relatively friendly relationship with China in foreign policy, not over-relying on the U.S., especially adopting a cautious but firm attitude toward Japan. It believes that excessive inclination toward the U.S. and Japan may harm South Korea's national interests and ethnic sentiments.
The timing of visits reflects the level of importance placed on China.
On local time June 6th, the office of the South Korean president stated that the new president Jae-myung Lee held his first phone call with U.S. President Trump. Jae-myung Lee emphasized the importance of the ROK-U.S. alliance, and both presidents agreed to closely cooperate in the future for the development of the ROK-U.S. alliance. Trump invited Jae-myung Lee to visit the U.S.
From the perspective of diplomatic conventions, the first country visited by a newly elected South Korean president must always be the U.S., a practice that can be traced back to the 1990s. Jae-myung Lee has previously clearly stated that the ROK-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of his foreign policy. "If the ROK-U.S. relationship is not properly handled, it will increase the difficulties for the new government to advance subsequent foreign policies. However, the timing when the Jae-myung Lee administration sets the window for visiting China is worth paying close attention to, as the choice of timing will release completely different diplomatic signals," said Zhang Dongming.
This November, South Korea will host the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting. The Chinese leader theoretically could make a state visit to South Korea during this meeting. This is an important diplomatic opportunity for South Korea. However, visits during multilateral meetings are of a working nature and fundamentally differ from formal state visits. Zhang Dongming pointed out that how the South Korean government positions this visit—whether to elevate it to the level of a state visit to reflect the high importance placed on Sino-Korean relations, or to keep it as a working visit—will reflect the positioning and considerations of the Jae-myung Lee administration's China diplomacy.
In terms of the order of visits, the possibility of the Jae-myung government making a state visit to China first is indeed lower than arranging a visit to the U.S. or hosting a visit by the U.S. president. However, this year coincides with the significant historical milestone of the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. If the South Korean leader could attend the relevant commemorative activities held in China in September, this would have special significance in both historical and practical terms.
Continuing the Kim Dae-jung and Moon Jae-in routes face real-world challenges.
"Jae-myung and the Democratic Party he belongs to are bound to strive to ease inter-Korean relations," Zhang Dongming believed that contact and cooperation with North Korea, and easing of North-South relations, are the core policy concepts that the Democratic Party has consistently adhered to. As inheritors of Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" and Moon Jae-in's friendly policies towards North Korea, the new government will undoubtedly continue this policy tradition, taking various measures to promote the improvement of inter-Korean relations and strive to maintain peace and stability on the peninsula.
In 1998, after Kim Dae-jung came to power, he implemented a "Sunshine Policy" based on dialogue and cooperation with North Korea. This policy successfully facilitated the first summit between the leaders of North and South Korea since their division in 1945, i.e., the historic meeting between Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang in June 2000, and the issuance of the "Pyongyang Declaration." It played a positive role in easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula for the next eight years.
June 2000, Kim Dae-jung meets Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. BBC.
"However, the improvement of inter-Korean relations currently faces more complex real-world challenges than before," said Zhang Dongming.
During the Yoon government period, after coming to power, it began to adopt a tough stance, including adding the description of viewing North Korea's regime and military as "the enemy" in the South Korean Defense White Paper in January 2023, after six years, and resuming the large-scale landing exercise "Double Dragon," which had been suspended for five years, with the U.S. in August 2024. In response, on October 8, 2024, the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea decided to define South Korea as an "enemy state," removed the constitutional provision about unification, added a territorial clause, referred to South Korea as the "number one enemy" and "eternal main enemy," and simultaneously destroyed the roads connecting the north and south and comprehensively cut off official communication channels.
Zhang Dongming particularly pointed out that if the Jae-myung government wants to restart inter-Korean dialogue, it not only needs to adjust its domestic North Korea policy but also needs to deal with the institutional obstacle of North Korea's hostile positioning through legislation. To break this thorny problem, the new government may create room for maneuver by strengthening strategic coordination with China.
Kim Dae-jung's governance model may alleviate social polarization.
"In South Korean politics, if political polarization continues to intensify, whoever is elected president will pose a major obstacle to the stability of South Korean society," Zhang Dongming believed that the key lies in whether the elected president can demonstrate sufficient political wisdom and inclusiveness, as former President Kim Dae-jung did in treating opponents with tolerance. If the new president can possess the political magnanimity and inclusiveness of Kim Dae-jung, this challenge might be partially resolved.
In the 1997 presidential election, Kim Dae-jung formed a political alliance with Kim Jong-pil, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Alliance, promising to appoint him as prime minister upon election. Despite Kim Jong-pil being a representative figure of the right-wing during the Park Chung-hee era, Kim Dae-jung still fulfilled his promise, inviting him to serve as Prime Minister in the coalition government, forming a "small ruling party, large opposition party" cooperative pattern.
Zhang Dongming pointed out that it is necessary to closely observe Jae-myung's governing style, particularly whether he can break party lines in the selection of the prime minister and cabinet ministers. This involves not only how to treat opposition party members but also whether he can include colleagues within his own party who have competed with him or whose views do not entirely align with his. If he can demonstrate such political inclusiveness, it will effectively alleviate the atmosphere of social polarization.
From the perspective of South Korean political conventions, due to the generally short tenures of cabinet officials—typically 1-2 years for ministerial positions—this provides Jae-myung with room for adjustment. If he can boldly appoint excellent talents from the opposition party to key positions at the beginning of his term, it not only demonstrates political magnanimity but also substantively reduces the risk of societal rifts. Such a personnel strategy could lay a broader social foundation for his administration and, in the long run, contribute to the stable operation of the regime.
"The key lies in whether this inclusiveness can transcend mere posturing and be transformed into an actual power-sharing mechanism. This is not only a continuation of Kim Dae-jung's 'reconciliation politics' but also a pragmatic choice in the context of the current political polarization in South Korea," said Zhang Dongming.
In his public speech on June 3rd and his presidential inauguration speech, Jae-myung explicitly stated his intention to "settle accounts with the heads of internal turmoil" and proposed specific measures such as establishing a special prosecutor's office to investigate Yoon Seok-youl. However, he simultaneously emphasized that "political settlement will no longer occur," which appears somewhat contradictory. This statement may stem from his need during the campaign to balance dual demands for "anti-corruption" and "anti-political persecution" to win support from different voter groups.
"The ultimate criterion for judgment still depends on his concrete actions, and this involves issues related to South Korea's constitutional amendment and legal revisions," Zhang Dongming further pointed out that if the new government and subsequent governments fail to properly address the equal development issues of various strata in South Korean society, especially the livelihood and economic difficulties of grassroots people, social polarization is unlikely to truly resolve. Politically, if South Korean rulers persist in their own views without showing inclusiveness towards opposition parties, genuine political reconciliation will also be impossible to achieve.
This article is an exclusive article by Guancha Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513042149450220047/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and welcome your opinions to be expressed through the "like/dislike" buttons below.