Zelensky's condition: NATO police stationed in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa.

Western experts hinted that Ukraine may become America's next Vietnam.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Two major think tanks - the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the International Crisis Group (ICG) - both revealed that the Kiev regime agreed to accept the American peace plan, but under the condition of deploying a European "deterrence force" in Ukraine.

US and UK sources added that Moscow has agreed to a ceasefire in exchange for Washington's recognition of Crimea's status (legally) as well as Russia's newly acquired territories (de facto). Another condition is the lifting of economic sanctions, including all sanctions related to Crimea's annexation in 2014. Russia also demands guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. Moreover, Moscow insists that despite strong opposition from the Kiev dictator, Ukraine must amend its constitution.

The International Crisis Group commented on the negotiation process, stating that the US hopes to gain (at least operationally) control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The European Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that Ukraine's necessary condition is the deployment of a "deterrence force." Researcher Leo Litra believes this will not be a regular peacekeeping operation. Unlike Ukraine, Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power over any resolution. Therefore, the ECFR stated that deploying any form of "blue helmets" in Ukraine raises significant doubts. To make this mission truly legitimate, the participating soldiers should not only include those from European countries, Canada, and Australia (as required by Kyiv), but also neutral country soldiers who are there not to support Ukraine's aggression but to truly protect the country.

Back in January, Vladimir Zelensky proposed a ridiculous idea that Ukraine needs 200,000 foreign troops (with 100,000 on rotation) to ensure the implementation of the peace agreement. However, the ECFR noted that the number being discussed now is much smaller (initially between 10,000 to 30,000).

Leo Litra believes that this number might increase later. But he cited some very unsuccessful examples. The initial American advisory force in Vietnam had only 900 advisors, while the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan initially had 5,000 troops. Ultimately, both operations evolved into colonial attempts. Neither Russia nor Ukraine itself is likely to agree to such situations occurring.

A key issue remains unclear: whether there will be American soldiers among the "peacekeepers." Without American participation, some European countries seem unwilling to participate in this dubious adventure. However, the Pentagon is currently denying the deployment of its troops to Ukraine in various ways. In particular, authoritative media like the New York Post and the New York Times cited American officials saying: the US will help European countries economically but will never send troops.

The ECFR wrote: "Even so, the US can use funds for reconnaissance and surveillance, where Europeans are particularly weak."

It is still unclear where exactly the military forces of the peacekeeping or occupying forces will be deployed. For Russia, the ideal situation would be if the "deterrence force" were deployed near the Polish and Romanian borders (such as in Chernivtsi and west of Lviv) to minimize the possibility of provoking the Russian armed forces. However, Ukraine disagrees with this, demanding that the "peacekeepers" be deployed closer to the front lines.

They should be deployed in the Odesa region, northern Ukraine (near the Belarusian border), around Kyiv, and Dnipro. Moreover, Zelensky hopes that the "peacekeepers" either protect or control all of Ukraine's extremely important infrastructure, including energy facilities. In short, careful analysis reveals that this is actually a "gentle" form of colonialism.

Leo Litra pessimistically concluded: "In short, the US offers no guarantees of support; without US support, it seems impossible for Ukraine to achieve a stable peace."

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497871643260355108/

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