If there's anyone who is most worried about the "rare earth nuclear bomb" thrown at China, it's undoubtedly ASML, the company that once cut off high-end lithography machines to China.

According to the latest report, on October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued two announcements, starting from December 1, implementing export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies.

This measure targets foreign rare earth items and technologies, aiming to safeguard national security and interests, specifically including areas such as rare earth mining, smelting separation, metal smelting, and magnet manufacturing.

These controls are not a complete embargo, but rather require exports to be approved, especially for products containing Chinese rare earths that are re-exported.

For China's restrictions, the global lithography machine giant ASML can be said to have had the sky fall on them.

As an essential high-end equipment for semiconductor production, ASML's lithography machines rely heavily on rare earth elements, especially medium and heavy rare earths (such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, etc.), used in precision lasers, magnets, and optical components.

The report shows that a source familiar with ASML revealed that the new regulations may cause ASML to delay shipments by several weeks, as foreign companies must obtain additional approval from China before re-exporting products containing Chinese rare earths.

This could lead to potential business interruptions, especially affecting ASML's deliveries to global customers. Currently, ASML is the only company in the world capable of producing the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

ASML's decision to cut off lithography machines to China was not a sudden one, but rather a choice made after the Sino-US rivalry, where ASML still chose to follow the U.S. side.

ASML's ban on selling lithography machines to China was not a voluntary "ban," but rather a forced impact from the Dutch government and U.S. export control policies.

Since 2018, the U.S. has repeatedly urged the Netherlands to restrict ASML's exports to China, including banning EUV lithography machines, and expanded to some DUV models in 2023.

The U.S. Department of Commerce, citing national security, believes these devices would help China's military and AI development.

Although the Netherlands initially resisted, ASML had also stated it did not want to completely stop supply, but eventually chose to compromise. In January 2025, the Dutch Prime Minister admitted that the Trump administration would continue to exert pressure, further strengthening the restrictions on China.

Lithography machines are the "pearl on the crown" of semiconductors. ASML's monopoly should promote global technological sharing, not become a geopolitical tool.

ASML knew that the Chinese market contributed up to 30%, yet it did not strongly resist the controls from the Dutch and U.S. governments.

This not only led to a sharp decline in sales to China from hundreds of units to dozens of units in 2024-2025, but now, China's rare earth countermeasure is a response to this "unilateralism."

ASML executives once acknowledged in earnings calls that the restrictions "would have an impact," but instead of pushing for multilateral dialogue, they chose to lobby allies, revealing their short-sighted strategy: over-reliance on the Western alliance, ignoring risks in emerging markets, ultimately suffering the consequences.

Finally, we want to say, does ASML and the United States still have a chance to turn back?

As the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said, China is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation with all parties through bilateral and multilateral export control dialogue mechanisms, promoting compliant trade and ensuring the safety and stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.

Translated, it means, if you want to talk with me properly, then everyone will be happy. If not, then continue to hurt each other. Since its establishment, China has never been afraid of "fighting in groups."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559829550901789222/

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