In 1938, The New York Times of the United States created the term "supercarrier" to describe the most expensive warship of the British Navy at that time - the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal. With the development of aircraft carriers, this term gradually became a synonym for the largest tonnage aircraft carriers in the world. After World War II, the United States began to dominate this category, becoming the only country in the world with supercarriers.

Particularly after the USS Enterprise and the Nimitz-class aircraft carriers were born, the term "supercarrier" began to exclusively refer to aircraft carriers weighing over 80,000 tons. These carriers typically equip fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft and catapult systems, enabling global deployment and forming overseas strategic deterrence forces.

Although China has successively commissioned two aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, in the past decade, both have displacements within the 60,000-ton range, failing to reach the supercarrier standard. The United States remains the only country in the world with active-duty supercarriers.

However, recent reports from American media warn that as China's Fujian aircraft carrier approaches the end of its sea trials, the United States will lose its "sole" status, and China's new nuclear-powered supercarrier is likely to begin construction soon.

01. China’s Super Aircraft Carrier is About to Enter Service

A report in the U.S. military magazine "Military Observers" stated that Fujian aircraft carrier has confirmed to start its eighth sea trial. This sea trial primarily tests the integration performance of the electromagnetic catapult system, and this test may also involve the electromagnetic launch takeoff of the J-35 fighter jet.

In addition, the media also claimed that multiple sources indicate that navigation restriction notices in the Yangtze River estuary and other factors suggest that the completion of testing and commissioning of this ship may be advanced. China might commission its first supercarrier later this year.

The article also speculated that China will build larger ships using nuclear propulsion to meet the demand for deploying aircraft carriers outside the West Pacific region.

Image of Fujian aircraft carrier during its first sea trial

Overall, the description in this article is quite objective, but there are obvious delays in the information provided. Fujian aircraft carrier's eighth sea trial was not confirmed to start but has already ended.

As early as May 21st, large vessel traffic control information was released in the Yangtze River estuary. On that day, Fujian aircraft carrier went out to sea for its eighth sea trial.

On May 24th, CCTV News reported that Fujian aircraft carrier was "speeding up its sea trials," and analyzed the combat effectiveness it would bring after joining the naval fleet. Such high-profile publicity for strategic weapons like aircraft carriers is rare, indicating that significant events are about to happen regarding Fujian aircraft carrier.

On May 26th, Fujian aircraft carrier officially completed its eighth sea trial, lasting only six days, making it the shortest among all its previous sea trials. If we calculate the total duration of the sea trials, the eight trials of this ship lasted 117 days, far longer than Liaoning's 109 days and Shandong's 84 days.

From these pieces of information alone, we can sense the signals of Fujian aircraft carrier's imminent service.

Based on the sea trial experiences of our previous two aircraft carriers, the main test items are usually arranged during the middle sea trials, while the first and last sea trials tend to be shorter, especially the last one, which is often a summary and review, completing in just a few days.

Specifically regarding Fujian aircraft carrier's testing cycle, compared to the previous sea trials lasting over ten days or even dozens of days, the current six-day sea trial fits well with the characteristics of the final sea trial.

Moreover, Fujian aircraft carrier's previous seven sea trials have already been significantly longer than those of Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers, even though this ship is equipped with many unique new technologies. It should have undergone sufficient testing during such a long period.

Furthermore, given the current international situation and the increasing demand for national defense security, Fujian aircraft carrier's early commissioning fully meets the needs of the current situation. In particular, CCTV's report used the phrase "speeding up sea trials," indirectly confirming that the ship has completed its sea trials ahead of schedule.

Based on the historical experience that Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers joined the navy fleet about a month after their sea trials ended, Fujian aircraft carrier might be delivered to the navy as early as June. Even considering the different procedures for accepting new equipment, it won't be delayed too long, at least by mid-year or the second half of the year.

At that time, this supercarrier will bring a new leap in China's naval combat capability, allowing the Chinese navy to truly move towards the ocean.

02. China's Navy Will Truly Move Towards Blue Water

After Fujian aircraft carrier enters service, the most significant benefit it brings to the Chinese navy is the enhancement of long-range projection capabilities. Although the Chinese navy air force is equipped with heavy carrier-based aircraft like J-15, due to the ski-jump takeoff method of Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers, the payload capacity and combat radius cannot reach ideal states, and the take-off efficiency is lower than that of flat-deck catapult carriers.

Meanwhile, traditional ski-jump carriers also find it difficult to accommodate carrier-based early warning aircraft, transport aircraft, and other special types, limiting the fleet's early warning capability, air command capability, and rapid replenishment capability.

After Fujian aircraft carrier enters service, not only will it be equipped with new carrier-based early warning aircraft, but J-15 carrier-based aircraft can also be launched fully fueled and armed, thus achieving its maximum combat radius. Even fifth-generation fighters can easily board the ship to form a high-low pairing with J-15, strengthening the overall air-to-air and anti-surface strike capability of the carrier.

Imagined CG of J-15 and J-35 taking off together

The larger tonnage of the ship means more aircraft can be accommodated, and the larger deck area improves deck dispatch efficiency. Combined with the efficiency increase brought by the electromagnetic catapult and arresting system, the projection quality and distance per unit time the carrier can achieve greatly enhances, directly strengthening the deterrent and combat capabilities of the carrier, which helps the carrier deal with more complex and high-pressure combat environments when deployed in the open ocean.

At the same time, the larger hull can carry more ammunition and fuel, making the self-sufficiency of the carrier itself stronger than that of the 60,000-ton Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers. This significantly alleviates the logistics pressure on the fleet and is conducive to the long-distance deployment of aircraft carriers.

Especially for supercarriers like Fujian, combined with large destroyers like 055, they can maximize the strong adaptability and self-sufficiency of large main ships, forming a strategic deterrence force capable of rapid global deployment.

Therefore, the significance of Fujian aircraft carrier is not only breaking America's monopoly on supercarriers but also a crucial step for the Chinese navy to move towards the ocean. After having supercarriers, the Chinese navy will become a true blue-water navy, no longer restricted by so-called island chains, truly safeguarding China's global trade security.

But this is far from the limit of China; transitioning from conventional power to nuclear power is the direction of China's future aircraft carriers.

03. China’s Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier May Soon Begin Construction

There is actually some evidence supporting the possibility of China starting construction on a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. In May last year, commercial satellite imagery showed multiple large segments near a dry dock at Dalian Shipyard in Liaoning. One segment had two lines resembling catapult tracks, with suspected carrier-based aircraft models parked nearby. At that time, analysts applied the latest modifications of the Wuhan aircraft carrier mock-up and concluded that the module captured was likely part of a 100,000-ton aircraft carrier's angled deck catapult module.

By March this year, satellite images showed that the dry dock where this segment module was located launched a liquefied natural gas tanker. Afterward, the dock was cleaned, and dock blocks were laid. By May, it was nearly complete.

Dock blocks are structures used to support shipbuilding. Based on the layout of the dock blocks, one can infer the approximate size of the vessel and the points of stress on its bottom, especially since aircraft carriers have an angled deck design, with the placement of keel blocks differing from traditional ships. Some analysts deduced from the position of the dock blocks in the satellite images that a large aircraft carrier was being built.

If this aircraft carrier has two catapult tracks on the angled deck side, it means the carrier has a total of four catapult tracks. Conventional-powered aircraft carriers struggle to meet such massive electricity demands. Therefore, this carrier is likely to use nuclear power.

Referencing Fujian aircraft carrier's six years of construction and three years of sea trials, if this carrier proceeds smoothly, it will form combat readiness in the mid-2030s. At that time, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers will further enhance China's long-distance naval combat capabilities.

Since nuclear carriers do not need to carry their own fuel, more space can be allocated for ammunition and fighter fuel, further enhancing the operational self-sufficiency of the carrier and reducing the logistical pressure on the entire fleet.

Additionally, the nuclear-powered carrier's propulsion system can remain operational for extended periods without cold start limitations, improving rapid deployment capabilities to another level.

However, whether China will enter a full nuclear carrier era and stop building conventional-powered carriers remains uncertain. Fujian aircraft carrier's success has proven that conventional-powered carriers can have electromagnetic catapult capabilities, significantly diminishing the previous advantage of nuclear-powered carriers in power supply.

Adding to the cost advantages of conventional-powered carriers in construction, maintenance, and usage, China may not necessarily choose the same all-nuclear route as the United States. Perhaps after China's nuclear-powered carrier, we will see subsequent conventional-powered variants of Fujian aircraft carrier.

But this is merely a guess based on the current situation. Where will China's aircraft carrier development go? What surprises will it bring us in the future? We must wait patiently.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513148464243409435/

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