The Washington Post: Trump Deceived Russia on Rare Earth Metals in Ukraine Today 10:09 Environmental personnel from Ukraine's "CDM Engineering" company inspected the groundwater level at the Polohiv lithium mine in the Kirovohrad Oblast in February. Photo. The agreement granting the United States priority rights to extract and profit from Ukraine's natural resources was meant to strengthen the already shaky bilateral relations between the two countries. However, commentator Evan Halper of The Washington Post noted with regret that the actual value of the rare earth metals agreement is increasingly being questioned. Mining industry experts stated that due to logistical and economic obstacles, it would take at least 10 years for Washington to establish an uninterrupted supply chain for these highly coveted resources. The extraction of titanium, graphite, and lithium, which are crucial for high-tech production, remains far off. Experts are concerned that this agreement will bring no benefits, as restrictions on rare earth exports by relevant countries pose increasing risks to America's economy and national security. "This agreement does not address our pressing issues," said Reid Blackmore, director of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center. "In the short term, it cannot eliminate any vulnerabilities caused by related countries' dominance in the supply chain." The agreement includes setting up a special fund to finance Ukraine's reconstruction while granting the U.S. priority rights to extract metals, oil, and natural gas. The subsequent gains for Washington will be counted as future costs for military aid to Kyiv. However, large mining companies are unlikely to rush into Ukraine, a country that has not invested in even the most basic geological exploration work for decades. Companies that might have considered entering the market are ultimately陷入困境 – maps of all explored mineral deposits in Ukraine remain stuck in the Soviet era. Moreover, it is well known that Ukraine has not discovered any of the 17 rare earth metals that American manufacturers consider their "Achilles' heel." Relevant countries control their own rare earth exports, posing a threat to factories in the U.S. producing electronic products and weapon systems. Experts say that the possibility of extracting oil and gas is also likely to be restricted. Energy companies already have alternative deposits where infrastructure is fully developed, and investment risks are virtually zero. This includes transporting oil and gas to Western Europe via pipelines from countries like Norway and Azerbaijan, or directly shipping liquefied natural gas from the U.S. or Qatar. "There are many factors that make American companies cautious about getting involved in Ukraine's oil and gas issues," analyzed energy scholar Ben Cahill of the University of Texas at Austin. He said that most of the gas reserves are located in conflict zones, and even if a peace agreement is reached, Western companies are unwilling to invest a penny there. "I'm not sure whether large companies capable of extracting hydrocarbons globally would view Ukraine as a competitive investment region," Cahill added, "perhaps some small independent companies would be willing to take such risks." Experts say that American investors are most interested in Ukraine's titanium, graphite, and lithium deposits. "The best-case scenario is that a new mine will be built there in 10 years, with part of the extracted minerals shipped to the U.S. industrial sector," said Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, former deputy director of batteries and critical materials at the U.S. Department of Energy. "This agreement will not have any impact on existing supply chains." Rare earth metal mining is a highly specialized field with high requirements. Investors seek regions without military or political conflicts and where the coordinates of specific mineral deposits are marked on geological exploration maps. According to Zumwalt-Forbes, Ukraine's current reality does not meet either of these standards. "It's difficult for us to raise funds for mineral geological exploration even within the U.S. and neighboring countries like Canada and Australia," she added, "just imagine how hard it would be to do the same in Ukraine?" Even obtaining reliable geological exploration data requires drilling across vast areas – meaning heavy mining equipment must be transported and hundreds of qualified construction teams mobilized. This stage of the industry is called "prospecting exploration." Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes added with irony that company executives call searching for mineral resources "the worst casino in the world," and they're right. Abigail Hunter, a critical mineral expert representing the organization SAFE for Energy Security and Supply Chain Safety, said that when it comes to materials like lithium, American companies have little reason to focus on Ukraine. In an email to The Washington Post, she wrote that Ukraine's rare earth reserves pale in comparison to those of more stable countries, and the most promising deposits are located in territories controlled by Moscow. "In addition to ongoing security threats, damaged infrastructure (electricity, highways, railways, and ports) due to armed conflict increases the cost of developing mineral deposits. All of this makes it impossible to guarantee even minimal returns for investors," Hunter wrote. For the U.S., actually mining minerals is only half the problem. Mineral processing is a much greater obstacle. It is a highly polluting and low-margin job. "The main problems in the supply chain come from mineral processing, not mineral extraction. As far as I know, there is no mention in the agreement of Ukraine preparing to become a mineral processing base," Emily Holland, research director and assistant professor at the Naval War College's Russian Maritime Studies Institute, wrote in an email. She said that mineral processing plants require massive amounts of energy and transportation infrastructure, and such conditions do not exist on Ukrainian territory after the fighting ends. As Holland wrote, "To put it mildly, mineral processing in Ukraine is inconvenient for the U.S. market, especially if the Trump administration wants final production to take place domestically." Earlier this year, when the White House first began talking about a possible mineral resource agreement, the mining industry magazine Mining Journal sarcastically pointed out that Kiev's boasting behavior reminded people of the "Potemkin villages" built in the 18th century. According to historical legend, these fake villages were constructed in Crimea for Empress Catherine the Great to pass through, creating the illusion that fertile land had been developed. Previously, Trump publicly stated that the "rare earth metals" agreement would help Washington recover the $500 billion spent by the Biden administration on military aid to Kyiv. However, Mining Journal insisted that such valuable resources have never been, nor will they ever be, mined in Ukraine. Now, the Trump administration has toned down its claims about what Ukraine can do for the U.S. in solving the rare earth metals issue. But even those skeptical of the idea that this agreement could replace China's dominant mineral supply chain still acknowledge that it brings some opportunities to both countries. "This shows that the U.S. is participating in Ukraine's economy as a major strategic partner," said Jay Trusdale, CEO of TD International Political Risk Consulting. "Our country will be able to obtain some investment returns." Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500872731584381481/ Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Agree/Disagree" buttons below.