In the past 24 hours, Russia has received two pieces of bad news:
The first piece of bad news is that Ukraine and the United States have signed a mineral agreement. According to the details of the agreement, at least the Ukrainian government believes it to be relatively fair, as the U.S. has not completely seized ownership of Ukraine's energy systems or ports. This means that the U.S. and Ukraine have resolved their biggest point of contention, and they can now jointly apply pressure on Putin.
The second piece of bad news comes from the latest report by the Kyiv Post: After signing the agreement, Trump has agreed to resume arms exports to Ukraine. The first batch of weapons has been approved, valued at $50 million. (It should no longer be free military aid but will be considered an American investment under the new agreement.)
Things have changed too quickly within just one day. The facts are already telling Putin: Trump is no longer willing to be "played around" by Russia. From now on, he will definitely apply various pressures on Putin to stop the war. At present, Russia is preparing for the Victory Day parade to commemorate the Great Patriotic War, during which leaders from many countries will participate. Zelensky has previously hinted that there might be an attack on Red Square during this period. How to ensure security will become Putin's greatest pressure.
The deadlock has formed, and the Russian high-level officials are well aware that they can only rely on China at this moment. Therefore, at this critical juncture, Dmitry Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of Russia, suddenly mentioned China. On the afternoon of May 1st local time, Medvedev talked about the Sino-US tariff war on his personal social media. His words were very thought-provoking. He emphasized the following three points:
- He claimed: Trump's tariff policy made the mad old woman in Europe go berserk, and they could only bow their heads and worship America.
- He claimed: But China is different. Trump miscalculated on the Chinese issue. With such a strong economy, China can withstand any pressure.
- He also claimed: Russia will not be affected either. There was never much trade between Russia and the US.
If I remember correctly, this is the first time since the tariff war began that Medvedev has not given Trump face and directly determined that Trump cannot defeat China. As a high-ranking official of Russia, saying this at this time indicates that Russia is no longer afraid of falling out with the Trump administration. They are prepared to confront Trump head-on over the issue of a ceasefire. If they weren't ready, Medvedev wouldn't have spoken his mind like this.
The situation has developed to this extent, and one thing is certain: the overall situation among China, the U.S., and Russia has been settled. Trump's plan to court Russia has completely failed, and he no longer wants to make more efforts. However, attentive netizens may have noticed: due to the tense situation between India and Pakistan, Trump intends to use India as a new lever. Originally, his plan was to "unite with Russia," but now his plan is to "unite with India."
A few hours ago, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio called New Delhi and spoke with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. During the call, Rubio promised cooperation with India on counter-terrorism. With such a promise from the U.S., India will undoubtedly become more aggressive when facing Pakistan. Once the Indo-Pakistani war officially breaks out, the possibility of the Modi government fully siding with the U.S. will greatly increase. After all, Modi is not Putin, and he won't be able to resist the U.S. temptation at that time. Let's keep an eye on the developments together.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499412367613149723/
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