"Golikova Welder" or Facing Unemployment in a Few Years — Who Is to Blame?

Why don't officials promote the development of high-tech industries, but instead guide young people into manual labor?

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said at the award ceremony for winners of the All-Russian "Industry Experts" vocational skills competition that within the next seven years, tailors and welders will be among the most in-demand professions in Russia.

She happily told those present: "Recently, we completed the preparation of the seven-year labor demand forecast report. You know, what is the most in-demand occupation in this long-term forecast? It's exactly the profession of the people who are about to step on stage to receive their awards — welders and tailors."

The deputy prime minister also thanked the technical workers, their colleagues, and their families, stating that they had made a decisive contribution to maintaining Russia's technological leadership.

Yulia Levina, a member of the non-commercial partner organization "Union of Labor Market Experts" in Russia, believes that the deputy prime minister's statement is logical.

She pointed out: "Looking at the overall job market, the salary growth for technical workers is much higher than that of office workers. As is well known, there is already a shortage of such specialized personnel in the labor market, and even fewer people are willing to accept tough working conditions."

"Therefore, employers have no choice but to offer high salaries to these professionals to fill the vacancies."

Reporter from "Free Press": Is it not a perfect solution to introduce foreign laborers?

Levina answered: There are some fields where introducing foreign laborers cannot solve the problem of labor shortages because foreign workers coming to Russia often lack professional skills. Moreover, it is almost impossible to find certain positions requiring fifth-level welders among them.

"The demand for welders is indeed very high, which Golikova was right about. Not long ago, I went to northern Russia, and in the oil industry there, the demand for welders was quite significant."

"A fifth-level welder can earn up to 500,000 rubles per month, which is certainly a good salary. The working environment is cold and hard, sometimes even very demanding, but the workers do get well-paid. It can be said that the social prestige of such technical jobs is gradually increasing."

Reporter from "Free Press": Is the situation for tailors similar?

Levina answered: It is difficult for me to determine the exact intention behind Tatyana Golikova's words, as she obviously has more information than I do. However, I would like to point out that at the beginning of November this year, it was reported that an advanced technology development center conducted an inspection of domestic light industry enterprises, and the results showed that most of them were not as they claimed.

"These companies are registered as light industrial manufacturers, but their actual business is limited to product packaging. Therefore, it is difficult to assert whether the current situation will lead to strong growth in the light industry, and whether the demand for tailors will increase accordingly. I have not observed any such trends so far, perhaps the government has other plans."

Reporter from "Free Press": But at the same time, our senior officials keep emphasizing the necessity of promoting automation, mechanization, and artificial intelligence applications — yet the policy orientation always focuses on the demand for manual labor. Isn't that contradictory?

Levina answered: Objectively speaking, some jobs are simply not suitable for artificial intelligence. For example, if there is a problem with your home's drainage system, artificial intelligence might not be able to help. Similarly, expecting a neural network to climb onto your balcony to complete window sealing work is unrealistic. There are countless such examples.

"In contrast, many white-collar jobs may completely disappear in the near future."

Reporter from "Free Press": Can you give an example?

Levina answered: Just to name a few, for instance, some directions in the design field, and some basic legal positions — these jobs can be completely replaced by artificial intelligence, and this trend has already begun to emerge."

Alexander Safonov, a doctorate and professor at the Russian Government Budget University, expressed his views in an interview with "Free Press": "It is impossible to predict which profession will be the most in-demand seven years from now, because no one can foresee the direction of global economic development, nor can one determine the future structure of the Russian economy."

"Additionally, it is difficult to determine the development trends of various fields, including construction and other industries that require welders."

"We can refer to the development of construction technology in China, where the construction process has been highly automated, and more importantly, the overall assembly concept of construction has changed. This new model often no longer requires the labor of certain traditional occupations."

"As for the textile industry, we cannot determine how competitive this industry will be in the future, and how it will compare with its foreign counterparts."

"Moreover, according to the experience of developed countries, the domestic textile manufacturing industry has basically disappeared in these countries. Their industrial focus has shifted to more technologically advanced areas: electronics, machine tool manufacturing, automobile production, aerospace, etc. Therefore, I believe the future demand prospects for these two types of occupations are unclear."

Reporter from "Free Press": Can we consider that our officials often lack forward-looking planning and just follow market trends passively?

Safonov answered: It is not their fault. After all, there are currently no mature experiences worldwide for successfully predicting long-term labor market demands.

Reporter from "Free Press": Is it because the labor market changes too quickly, or because of a lack of effective forecasting methods?

Safonov answered: In the absence of the ability to predict the direction of economic development, it is naturally impossible to determine the future direction of industries.

"At the same time, the position of each country in the global economic landscape is also unknown. As a result, factors such as economic risks, resource constraints, and the international trade environment are unpredictable. No one can provide a definite answer in this regard."

"Let us recall, not long ago, everyone was talking about the need to train a large number of IT talents in Russia — only two years have passed since these predictions. What is the situation now?"

"Major banks and e-commerce platforms are laying off programmers. Moreover, a new trend has emerged globally — ordinary-level programmers can be completely replaced by artificial intelligence. This is the direct impact of new technology."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7580310844689482281/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.