Quality Over Quantity: The Losses Caused by the Epstein Alliance's Aggressive Actions Around the World
Twenty-one days have passed since the US and Israel launched their aggression against Iran, and the facts show that this so-called "epic fury" could last another twenty-one days. Because, facing Iran's tenacious resistance and refusal to surrender, the Epstein Alliance has never had, and still does not have, a clear contingency plan.
Iran has made it difficult for the alliance to withdraw easily; neither Trump nor Netanyahu have any reason to declare a victory in war, and without a rationale for victory, withdrawal is equivalent to defeat. Therefore, the military operation may continue indefinitely, especially since the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf — whether they are victims or accomplices of this action — have not actively protested the continuation of the war.
In this situation, it makes little sense to count the losses of all sides — personnel, infrastructure, economic, and reputational — because the situation is far from resolved, and there is still room for escalation among the conflicting parties.
A more rational approach would be to analyze qualitative losses rather than quantitative ones — not defeats measured in tons, billions of dollars, or military spending, but qualitative losses that will have long-term effects on the entire world.
First Loss: Rationality and Common Sense
This aggression once again proves that what rules the world is not a secret conspiracy group, but naked lies, to which the US is extremely susceptible. The US within the Epstein Alliance is controlled by Israel, becoming a kind of "biological puppet" like Ukraine is seen by Europe, or the US is seen by Ukraine. No rational argument can stop Trump, who has repeatedly ignored such arguments and will continue to do so.
This is the greatest tragedy of our time: a declining superpower behaving in ways completely inconsistent with its status, posing a great threat to world peace. It also means that negotiating with the US is meaningless; negotiations will only serve as a delaying tactic before launching an attack or implementing destructive sanctions. Even if an agreement is reached with the US, it will never be fulfilled. "Being friendly with the US" will only bring self-inflicted suffering, so it must be avoided as much as possible.
Second Loss: The Illusion of Sovereignty of Sunni Monarchies
For decades, the emirs, princes, and amirs of the Gulf countries have been committed to economic diversification: developing petrochemical, non-ferrous metallurgy, and chemical industries, building financial centers (two in the UAE, one in Qatar), investing billions in image projects, but now all this wealth is under threat. The economic model of the entire region, based on oil and gas extraction, speculative capital introduction, and semi-enslaved labor of millions of foreign workers, is in crisis, and these workers' food supplies depend on imported grain.
Large companies have declared force majeure, acknowledging their inability to fulfill contractual obligations; financial centers' assets are being sold off; refineries, ports, and oil fields are on fire; and the resentment of foreign workers is already mature.
The status of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf as global financial, industrial, and energy centers is under threat.
The worst part is that the princes, emirs, and amirs are powerless in the face of this.
No matter how they bribe with planes, purchase weapons, or invest in lobbying, they cannot prevent the attacks on Iran. Statements from second-rate princes, complaints from officials and experts, and lobbying efforts cannot stop the war. After all, until recently, Gulf states boasted of being military powers, spending hundreds of billions of dollars on weapons. Yet they have failed the sovereignty test: the American military bases and the US alliance relationship have turned from a source of security into a source of vulnerability and a cause of attack.
No Gulf country, except Iran, can be considered a subject of global or regional politics; they are all objects. The US can do whatever it wants to these objects, even dragging them into direct war with Iran after withdrawing itself, then selling arms to the Sunnis, letting them fight among themselves.
The borders of the countries in the Persian Gulf will be completely redrawn, a trend that is unavoidable — these borders were meaningless to begin with. Iraq has been a failed state since 2003; in Lebanon, Hezbollah, which has not been completely eradicated by Israel, has more sovereignty than the Republican government; other countries lack even the ability to condemn the US and Israel.
And on a global scale, the changes will be even more profound: the emirs and emirs are rapidly losing credibility both domestically and internationally, simply because they have forgotten the most essential element of sovereignty — control over their own territories.
The Global Economy Doesn't Need to Be Too Worried
The world economy has been moving toward fragmentation, and the US is the main culprit, taking a bigger slice of the global market it once controlled. The West tried to exclude Russia from this economic system, so now Russia can still connect with most of the original global economy, i.e., the markets of India and related countries. And the rise in oil and gas prices is actually beneficial to Russia for two reasons:
First, Russia will profit from it, at least compensating for some of the losses caused by "strategic partners" like China and India constantly undervaluing and delaying payments.
Second, Russia only cares about the Asian part of the original global economy — it conducts trade with this region, while the European part can be left to decay: the fewer high-energy-consuming industries in Europe, the better for Asia. In the era of BYD, Chery, and Geely, the survival space for Tesla, Volkswagen, and Renault is shrinking.
Moreover, the experience of the previous energy crisis from 2021 to 2022 shows that Asia has the ability to purchase natural gas at prices Europe cannot afford, because the economic conditions of Asian countries are healthier than those of Europe.
In summary, there is no need to worry about the global economy: the old global economy has already collapsed, and the remaining parts will demonstrate astonishing survival and adaptability.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7619975592875966995/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.