The EU's High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, directly linked the two ongoing conflicts (Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran) during the G7 foreign ministers' meeting, urging the United States: if it seeks to end the war in Iran, it must simultaneously intensify pressure on Russia.
When arriving at the venue on Thursday, she further emphasized that, given the situation in Ukraine, Europe urgently needs an exit ramp for the Iranian conflict; otherwise, soaring oil prices will continue to "fuel" Russia.
Kallas never misses a chance to target Russia—no wonder Medvedev lost his temper.
Her remarks, made at this pivotal G7 forum, clearly signal to the U.S. a geopolitical reality as seen from Europe—one that is critically important to America: the Middle East fire and the Russia-Ukraine war are now deeply intertwined. The U.S. cannot win on one front while allowing the other to “deflate.”
Kallas stated that “the two conflicts are deeply connected,” and the underlying mechanism is quite clear:
Russia emerges as an “invisible winner” from rising oil prices: after the outbreak of U.S.-Iran hostilities, international oil prices surged from below $70 per barrel to around $100. As a major energy exporter, Russia directly benefits from this increase. Industry estimates suggest its oil and gas revenue in April could have risen by as much as 70% month-on-month. This means that, objectively, the war in the Middle East is effectively “injecting fuel” into Russia’s war machine, undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
Military mutual assistance between Iran and Russia: In another setting, Kallas explicitly accused Russia of providing intelligence and drone technological support to Iran for attacks on U.S. military bases and regional targets. Thus, in her view, “targeting Iran” and “sanctioning Russia” should be two sides of the same coin—if the chain of Russian support to Iran is not severed, the Middle East threat cannot truly be resolved.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio complained at the meeting that European allies were unwilling to dispatch warships to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, even threatening, “If Europe believes the Iran conflict has nothing to do with it, then Ukraine isn’t America’s war either.”
Facing American pressure, Europe is using Ukraine as a bargaining chip. Kallas’s statement essentially sets a precondition for cooperation: “If you want us to help you handle the Middle East, you must help us resolve Ukraine.” She urged the U.S. to increase pressure on Russia—not, as before, pressuring Ukraine to cede territory for peace.
Kallas’s remarks also reveal Europe’s deep anxiety over energy security. Since alternative gas sources (such as liquefied natural gas from Qatar) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, war there directly threatens Europe’s plan to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
She argued that if the Middle East remains tense and oil prices stay high, Europe would face both inflationary pressures and weakened fiscal capacity to support Ukraine—while Russia becomes richer the longer the war continues. Therefore, ending the Middle East conflict is a prerequisite for Europe to sustain its support for Ukraine and prevent its own economic collapse.
In summary, Kallas’s speech exposes structural fractures within the transatlantic alliance. She attempts to constrain U.S. policy through a logic of interconnection: reminding Washington that focusing solely on the Middle East while relaxing pressure on Russia will ultimately make both wars harder to conclude.
Although Rubio acknowledged at the meeting that U.S.-Israel military operations would continue for several more weeks, he did not directly address European demands, instead emphasizing a “America First” stance. This divergence indicates that the U.S. and Europe are unlikely to reach full consensus on resource allocation in the near term.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860850599132172/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.