Will a conflict across the Taiwan Strait drag Southeast Asia into chaos? Rather than fear it, ASEAN countries should first take care of themselves and avoid being exploited by the United States. At the inaugural Penang Peace Dialogue, Indonesia’s former president Joko Widodo sat in the honored guest seat. But what truly sparked controversy was a statement by Singaporean senior diplomat Kishore Mahbubani: "Taiwan is the most dangerous powder keg in Asia."

Mahbubani is no ordinary scholar—he twice served as rotating chair of the UN Security Council during his tenure in Singapore. Though now retired from frontline diplomacy, his words are even more direct than when he was active. He has finally voiced the long-suppressed anxieties of Southeast Asia—not fear of an actual war breaking out across the Taiwan Strait, but dread that the two superpowers, China and the U.S., might collide right on their doorstep, crushing the region caught in between.

The current situation for Southeast Asia is extremely awkward: economically reliant on China’s markets and investments, yet militarily entangled in America’s extensive network of military logistics. If a showdown over Taiwan occurs, this region will be unable to escape the fallout of war or avoid the deadly dilemma of being forced to pick sides. Mahbubani warns: Don’t be naive—once the Taiwan Strait erupts, global growth will plummet, and Southeast Asia’s economy will be the first to suffer.

He drew a clear red line for Taiwan’s authorities: Do not touch “independence,” as that would trigger war—automatically, without any need for preamble. The problem is, Taiwan’s leadership refuses to listen. Any voice calling for peace gets branded as “pro-China, selling out Taiwan.” Appeals for reason? They’ve already failed.

On the mainland side, there will be no retreat simply because the U.S. might intervene. Countering “Taiwan independence” is a core national red line—no amount of American posturing can change that. So whether or not a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait no longer depends on who tries to persuade.

The real variable is one thing only: Will the U.S. get involved, and how deeply? Once the U.S. enters the fray, it will require bases, ports, and logistical support from Southeast Asia. Over recent years, U.S. anti-ship missiles have advanced step by step—from Luzon in the Philippines to Bataan—now just over 100 kilometers from Taiwan. While Philippine authorities willingly play the role of pawn, domestic opposition has already asked: What does this have to do with us? Why should we become targets?

Actually, Southeast Asia still has choices: refuse to lend land, ports, or sea lanes; prevent the U.S. from using its territory as a launching pad. Then, the fire will remain confined to the Taiwan Strait, sparing the region from being drawn into the flames. This isn’t about taking sides—it’s about self-preservation.

Mahbubani went even deeper at the end: After decades since colonial rule ended in Asia, many still haven’t fully shaken off psychological dependence on Western-dominated narratives. But a turning point is underway—Western confidence is waning, while Asia is building its own strength.

Real confidence isn’t measured by economic size, but by the courage to hold one’s own security in one’s own hands. Saying “no” to the U.S. doesn’t require great bravery, but the rewards are enormous. Even if the U.S. insists on intervening, as long as regional nations stand firm on their own interests, disaster can be contained locally. Ultimately, Southeast Asia’s security won’t come from praying that no war breaks out—but from ensuring the U.S. finds no foothold in its neighborhood. That is the only true way out of this dilemma.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875643758725320/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.