【Text/ Observer Network Columnist Anton Nierman, Translation/ Xue Kaihuan】
"The city has paid a heavy price in terms of combat casualties, with losses in both the southern and northern districts."
"The garrison stationed in Myrnohrad will be surrounded."
"Our fallen soldiers' bodies remain on the supply route, but the area is now a dead end, making it impossible to transport them."
"During the recent urban combat, four of our soldiers were killed."
"Enemy forces are approaching the suburbs, with some destroyed and others having penetrated into the city's interior."
These messages come from a Ukrainian soldier's personal Telegram channel. Since June 2025, this soldier, stationed on the front lines in Donetsk, has occasionally recorded his work conditions. This should have been another set of "ordinary and routine" frontline news about this war. However, the fact that all these messages come from the same city makes them unusual.
The city is Pokrovsk, known as Red Army City by the Russians. It is a large city in the Donetsk region, and the fierce battle over it has lasted for a year. Since October and November this year, the situation for the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk has deteriorated sharply, and the date when Russia occupies the city is getting closer.
Russian forces first infiltrated Pokrovsk in June this year, and a video widely circulated on social media showed Russian soldiers shooting at a vehicle carrying Ukrainian soldiers. In the video, the driver shouted, "There are those guys here (referring to Russian soldiers)," and then drove away.
Several weeks later, the Ukrainian military claimed to have successfully driven the Russians out of the city and even escorted Ukrainian journalists into Pokrovsk to interview the Ukrainian forces and the city's residents.
After the defense line was broken, the Ukrainian State Intelligence Directorate sent its special operations forces to conduct a突击行动 (raiding operation) in the fiercely contested Pokrovsk using US-made "Black Hawk" helicopters, but they were soon attacked by the Russians.
But just eight days after the "cleansing operation" by Kyiv authorities ended in August, the Russians returned to Pokrovsk. This time, their actions were more aggressive, and large-scale fighting began in the city. However, there was almost no information from the outside world. Both Western media and pro-government Ukrainian media believed that the city's situation had stabilized, and they thought the most important thing to focus on was the Ukrainian military's offensive action in the Drobropeleva salient in the northeast of Pokrovsk, and they optimistically believed that the situation in Pokrovsk was already under control.
Under this optimistic mood, it seemed that everyone believed the Russians had been defeated in Pokrovsk. But after a few months of optimism, the situation changed suddenly. By late October, Pokrovsk and its satellite city Myrnohrad were already surrounded by Russian forces and drones, and the encirclement was tightening day by day. The Russians had entered the city and were conducting house-to-house fighting, controlling a large number of buildings. 9,000 defending troops were trapped in a "death encirclement," with supply lines cut off, lacking ammunition and supplies, and the Russians had an absolute advantage in manpower and equipment like drones, making the situation extremely critical.
The situation turned rapidly within just one or two months, which was not only related to the poor performance of the Ukrainian forces, but in my opinion, it was also closely related to the Kyiv authorities concealing and covering up facts, spreading blind fanatic rumors, and manipulating public opinion. I will explain why the situation in Pokrovsk became like this, and what it means.
Deceiving Even Oneself
Soon after the large-scale "cleansing operation" conducted by the Kyiv authorities in July, the Russians returned to Pokrovsk, but at that time, due to the media focusing on the impact of the counteroffensive in Drobropeleva, this news did not receive timely attention.
According to videos uploaded to Telegram groups, the Russians used small infantry units to frequently pass through the defensive positions of the Ukrainian forces in the south of the city to penetrate deep into the city. Their actions were highly efficient, often carrying anti-drone equipment, while ambushing Ukrainian soldiers and clearing drones. "It feels like they came out of the ground. Maybe they were hiding in some houses when they first entered the city," said a deputy commander of a brigade stationed in Pokrovsk in a Telegram group.
The situation was obviously serious. On October 26, when the Ukrainian General Staff first publicly admitted that Russian forces were active in Pokrovsk, small Russian units had already crossed the entire city and were fighting in the northern suburbs. On the other side, after gathering forces, the Russians also began advancing toward the western suburbs of Pokrovsk towards Hryshyno around October 24 to 26.
The aforementioned deputy commander mentioned that since the start of the battle in Pokrovsk, they had never received any support, and all the forces participating in the defense were exhausted. At present, the supply of ground robot systems (GRS) equipment for the Ukrainian forces is delayed, and these systems are now almost the only way for the Ukrainian forces to transport ammunition, supplies, and evacuate the wounded. The Ukrainian forces also suffer from a severe lack of anti-drone equipment, and the frontline units can only "purchase" it themselves for deployment.
In terms of ammunition, the Ukrainian forces face serious problems as well. Although the supply is sufficient, most of the ammunition is already unusable, with a high damage rate. In addition, the transportation routes into Pokrovsk are almost completely cut off, and it is impossible to carry ammunition into the city by hand. The logistics supply lines relying on cars have also collapsed.
At the beginning, the Russians almost completely controlled the initiative in the Pokrovsk battle, and the Ukrainian forces were repeating the fate of Kuryumovka, where Russian drones almost completely cut off the supply lines of Kuryumovka, forming a complete encirclement.
Just like in the battle of Kuryumovka, the Ukrainian forces failed to find technical solutions to regain air superiority in the Pokrovsk battle. Russian drones almost controlled all transportation routes to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, tearing open anti-drone networks and destroying vehicles, killing a large number of soldiers. Drones waiting along the roads (i.e., "waiting-type" drones) are also everywhere, lying in wait by the roadside, attacking passing vehicles.
However, at a time when the frontline situation was getting worse and the Ukrainian forces were in an unfavorable position, the Kyiv authorities and Western media were still focusing on the Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive action in the Drobropeleva salient (Zelensky directly ordered the deployment of paratroopers and assault battalions from the reserve forces for this action).
At the beginning of November, Zelensky visited the front line in Drobropeleva and inspected the headquarters of the notorious 1st Azov Regiment.
The Drobropeleva salient was supposed to be one of the "two pincers" planned by the Russians to surround the entire Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region. This salient was the "southern pincer," while the advance starting from Sviatohirsk (located in the northwest of Donetsk region) was the "northern pincer." It must be acknowledged that although it was only partial breakthrough, the Ukrainian forces' breakthrough in the Drobropeleva salient did indeed thwart the Russian pincer movement plan. However, this counteroffensive actually had minimal results, and it did not benefit the critical situation in Pokrovsk. This was more like a political performance carefully planned by the Kyiv authorities.
The Kyiv authorities invested disproportionate resources in this counteroffensive, not only drawing paratroopers and assault battalions from the reserve forces, but also urgently deploying the 71st Mechanized Brigade and the "Azov Battalion" to this location, causing the defenders of Pokrovsk to receive no personnel or equipment reinforcements, and they could only endure the difficult situation of high ammunition damage rates and interrupted supply lines.
Previously, the territories claimed to have been reclaimed were temporary control areas in the back-and-forth battles, and they quickly lost them again under the Russian heavy bomb attacks. The Ukrainian forces failed to open any strategic supply lines and did not truly hinder the Russian offensive against Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, the Russians took advantage of the Ukrainian elite forces being tied down in Drobropeleva to accelerate their infiltration and encirclement of Pokrovsk.
The situation has clearly deteriorated, but the Kyiv authorities and the media continue to loudly promote the "Drobropeleva counteroffensive." Their purpose is clear: to fight a "diplomatic reputation battle," cover up the失控 situation in Pokrovsk, salvage the image after the "cleansing operation" in July, and on the other hand, to demonstrate to Western allies that "Ukraine still has the ability to fight," thus securing more aid and support.
The current chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrskyi, previously issued a statement claiming that "false information" in the Pokrovsk direction was responsible for the worsening situation. Although I don't like this person, he was right this time.
As I felt on Telegram groups and other social media, some Ukrainian forces stationed in Pokrovsk lied about their positions to the media due to "superior instructions." For example, a position marked on the situation intelligence map as "still under our control" might actually be occupied by only two injured soldiers who could not participate in combat, or even be completely empty.
The reason military and command officers chose to lie was to avoid being subjected to "verbal accountability" review by the authorities or facing criminal charges. Once a position was reported as lost, they would often receive orders from the authorities (even not from the military, but from officials such as Zelensky and his aides) to retake the position, but there were no enough personnel on the front line to execute these orders. Therefore, they simply chose to report "optimistic news" to avoid subsequent trouble. This behavior naturally led the media, which relied on the maps and reports submitted by the military to assess the situation, to misunderstand the real battlefield situation, and thus caused the whole Ukrainian society and international public opinion to misunderstand the true situation in Pokrovsk.
That is why, after Syrskyi issued his "no lying" statement, the frontline Ukrainian forces experienced a "big check." The inspectors needed to confirm whether the positions reported by the units matched the actual battlefield control situation. However, it remains unknown whether this essentially process-driven inspection will be effective. Even if it is effective, given the current frontline situation, at least the situation in Pokrovsk is already irreversible.
A senior commander who once executed tasks in the Pokrovsk direction said: When Syrskyi personally visited the eastern front, he requested to meet Syrskyi in person and tell him the real situation, but his request was quickly rejected by his superiors.
"I repeatedly proposed requests for unit reorganization and pointed out that the Ukrainian defenses lacked depth and could not withstand Russian infiltration, which would eventually lead to the encirclement of the units, but our voices were not heard," this senior commander summarized. In the photos of Syrskyi's meeting on the Pokrovsk direction that were publicly released, there were no junior commanders below the brigade level, while it was precisely these grassroots commanders who understood the situation in Pokrovsk and its surrounding areas best.
The cruel truth of Pokrovsk fully illustrates why the spread of "false information" leads to the rapid deterioration of the situation in the eastern front. The top-down "public opinion control" and suppression of unfavorable news implemented by the Kyiv authorities are one of the root causes of the problem. To maintain "diplomatic reputation" and continue spreading fanatical emotions to the public, Zelensky and his core advisors emphasized "counteroffensives" and deliberately ignored some unfavorable news, even threatening frontline commanders with "verbal reviews" and "accountability" to force them to lie in their reports and interviews.
Zelensky and his advisors must bear responsibility for the loss of Pokrovsk and the resulting problems.
Zelensky Photo
Zelensky's Political Game
Zelensky and his advisors must take the main responsibility; this is not my personal rant. With a great enemy at the door, Zelensky does not think about how to drive them away, but instead plays small political tricks. This only proves that from the beginning, he did not truly pay attention to how critical the situation was in Pokrovsk and Donetsk.
On November 4, he said that the Ukrainian forces "are continuing to eliminate small groups of Russian forces and maintaining control of the situation," and kept repeating the old refrain of "the situation is under control." At the same time, Mariaana Bezuhrya, a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and a well-known commentator on the front-line situation, accused Zelensky of lying. She criticized Zelensky and his advisors for misleading the public and stated that many of the authorities' decisions were made to spread false information. Her statement actually indirectly revealed the collapse of internal management, corruption, and the crisis existing in the vertical power structure within the authorities.
The Kyiv authorities are still desperately maintaining the appearance that "everything is under control" and using public opinion control as a means to maintain political stability. And people like Bezuhrya play the role of "exposing the lid" opposition figures. On the surface, there seems to be a significant public disagreement between the core of the authorities and some internal opponents.
But the question is: why would someone choose to openly challenge Zelensky at this time? The answer lies in the logic of the crisis. Zelensky does not want to admit defeat, so he defaults to or deliberately guides some "internal voices" to say things that cannot be said, and to pave the way for future excuses for failure. This is not "opposition voices speaking out," but a political trick aimed at maintaining Zelensky's personal authority and shifting responsibility onto the military and decision-making system.
In short, Zelensky is weaving a web, and he is like a spider, this web allows him to switch from the posture of "everything is fine" to the narrative of "we have punished the culprits and solved the problem." Bezuhrya is chosen to be the "whistleblower," and the purpose of the entire action is to leave a political escape route for the upper echelons of the authorities led by Zelensky.
Bezuhrya may not even realize that she is a "whistleblower" promoted by Zelensky. She appears at a time when the frontline crisis is impossible to hide, aiming to shift the blame onto the military leadership headed by Syrskyi.
Therefore, what we actually witness is a "blame-shifting operation" in the field of public opinion, whose purpose is to reduce the reputational damage Zelensky and his advisors will face when the Russians achieve further military successes. The more Zelensky recently emphasizes "the situation is under control," the more obvious this sign becomes. Coincidentally, it has recently been reported that the head of the Ukrainian army, Syrskyi, may be replaced, which confirms my guess.
The Ukrainian forces need someone to take responsibility for the disastrous defeat in Pokrovsk and the messy situation of the surrounded forces. The Western questioning of the effectiveness of aid to Ukraine also needs someone to respond, and Zelensky's lie that "the situation is under control" also needs someone to bear the blame. Perhaps Syrskyi is the biggest scapegoat, and Zelensky wants to use his political life to clear the last obstacle for his power retreat.
The Focus of the Frontline
Putting aside these political tricks, the fall of Pokrovsk is undoubtedly a focal event in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The loss of Pokrovsk means that the Ukrainian forces have lost a very important supply line in the Donetsk region, and they will also lose a region used for defense. Moreover, after this battle, the Kyiv authorities' eastern front line will have a major gap, and it will become increasingly easy for the Russians to occupy the entire Donbas region.
If the city falls, its satellite city Myrnohrad will also fall. If the authorities do not issue an order to evacuate due to "public perception," the Ukrainian forces stationed in Myrnohrad will also be caught in the encirclement. These two cities are interdependent due to logistical reasons. All transportation routes to Myrnohrad either pass through Pokrovsk or are near Pokrovsk. The logistics supply line is 20 to 25 kilometers long and must be traversed on foot.
Currently, the Russian forces are concentrating their firepower on the Drobropeleva, about 20 kilometers northeast of Pokrovsk, and they are flattening it with a large number of precision-guided bombs. In the southern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the west of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian advance is becoming increasingly bold.
The Russians will not stop their offensive, and the situation in Pokrovsk will not be the end of the war, but rather the starting point of a new phase of the war.
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