According to a June 3 report by South Korea's JTBC television station, Lee Jae-myung, a 61-year-old candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, was elected as the 21st President of South Korea with a high approval rate, ending the political chaos in South Korea over the past six months caused by the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. The National Election Commission stated that the voter turnout for this election reached 79.4%, setting a record since 1997, reflecting the public's high level of attention to the future direction of the country. Lee Jae-myung officially assumed office, skipping the regular two-month transition period and directly beginning his five-year term. The inauguration ceremony of the new president was held in a streamlined manner, following the precedent set by Park Geun-hye's impeachment and Moon Jae-in's "lightning inauguration."
This high voter turnout was due to the belief among the populace that the country is at a "critical juncture," amplifying the value of their votes. However, the lack of a transition period may lead to hasty policy implementation by the new government. The nomination and congressional certification of cabinet members require time for coordination, especially if the new administration chooses to retain the personnel of the previous Yoon Suk-yeol government. This could result in an awkward situation where the new government faces "bufferless" governance.
Lee Jae-myung's statements during the campaign sparked extensive discussions about his China policy. In an interview with Time magazine, he described US troops stationed in South Korea as "crucial" in "containing China" and stated that reconciliation between Washington and Moscow is "a means of exerting pressure on China," potentially bringing strategic advantages to South Korea through Arctic routes. At the same time, he supported Trump's dialogue with Kim Jong-un, believing it would contribute to peace on the Korean Peninsula. However, at the final press conference before the election, Lee Jae-myung emphasized the promotion of "practical diplomacy," prioritizing national interests and building friendly relations with countries including China.
In other words, Lee Jae-myung's "practical diplomacy" breaks free from the constraints of the Yoon Suk-yeol government's "value-based diplomacy," placing greater emphasis on South Korea's national interests. Lee Jae-myung's attitude toward China is relatively objective and pragmatic, recognizing the importance of the Chinese market to South Korea's economy, which may promote the recovery of Sino-South Korean relations from the chill of the Yoon era. Alternatively, he might move away from the bipolar mindset of China and the US, preparing for a multipolar world order, or improve bilateral relations through measures such as advancing the second phase of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement.
Lee Jae-myung has visited China and has direct knowledge of the country. His foreign policy focuses on economic cooperation and strategic balance. The ROK-US alliance remains the core pillar of South Korea's foreign policy, but Lee Jae-myung will not completely lean towards the United States; instead, he seeks to find a balance point between China and the US to safeguard South Korean interests. Compared to the irrational stance of the Yoon Suk-yeol government towards China, Lee Jae-myung may adopt a more rational and practical policy, avoiding actions that could harm Sino-South Korean relations.
However, challenges facing the new government cannot be ignored. The initial pains of cabinet formation, policy implementation, and the urgency of the ROK-US tariff negotiations will test Lee Jae-myung's governing capabilities. Whether Sino-South Korean relations can improve as expected still depends on the specific policies implemented and their outcomes. As outsiders have noted, the signal of Lee Jae-myung's China policy has changed, but its true trajectory may require some time to unfold.
Despite Lee Jae-myung's willingness to cooperate with China, the possibility of a South Korean president becoming entirely "pro-China" is low, mainly due to South Korea's deep military dependence on the United States. The current deployment of approximately 28,500 US troops in South Korea is not only symbolic of the ROK-US alliance but also a core pillar of South Korea's defense system. The tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, particularly North Korea's nuclear threat, makes South Korea highly dependent on the United States for military security. US troops stationed in South Korea not only provide direct military protection but also enhance South Korea's defensive capabilities against North Korea through joint military exercises and intelligence sharing.
Lee Jae-myung mentioned the importance of US troops stationed in South Korea in "containing China" during his campaign, reflecting his emphasis on the ROK-US alliance. This position creates structural contradictions with a completely "pro-China" stance. Even if Lee Jae-myung intends to improve Sino-South Korean relations, his policies must operate within the framework of the ROK-US alliance and cannot completely lean towards China.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514136929689092643/
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