Has there been a major breakthrough in the Sino-US negotiations after Trump changed his stance on the tariff war?

Since Trump changed his stance and said he was ready to lower tariffs on China at "some point", the main person responsible for US foreign trade negotiations and Treasury Secretary Baisente quickly set a new deadline for the "de-escalation" of the Sino-US tariff war, stating that the Trump administration was closely monitoring China's dynamics and would see substantial progress within the next few weeks.

In the Q&A session, the media's questions were also thought-provoking. They first specifically pointed out that Baisente had previously made demands on China, asking them to take actions to ease tensions. Has China actually followed the requirements set by the US side?

[After Trump's reversal, the US set a new deadline for resolving the tariff war]

After all, everyone knows that China is the core in America's tariff strategy. If Trump cannot resolve the issue with China through reciprocal tariffs, it will be even more difficult for the US side to make progress in other areas of trade negotiations. Conversely, the same applies.

However, Baisente directly avoided this topic and vaguely stated that the current tariff levels between China and the US are equivalent to mutual embargoes and are "unsustainable" in the long term. They are now monitoring China's dynamics every day.

Subsequently, the media continued to press for answers. Since they have been paying attention all along, has the Trump administration communicated with China? Even if negotiations on tariffs have not yet begun, has there been any talk about starting negotiations?

Baisente still refused to give a direct answer and only reiterated the previous argument - that throughout the history and various cases of international trade wars, the United States, as the deficit country, has great advantages, while the surplus country "always suffers the most loss".

We have already emphasized before that Sino-US economic and trade relations are large and complex and cannot be simply summarized by just surplus or deficit.

[Baisente expects to see "substantial progress" within the next few weeks]

In this Q&A session, Baisente repeatedly repeated old arguments and evaded the topic, claiming to achieve substantive progress in the Sino-US tariff war but making no substantial statements.

This performance has further convinced the US media that although the Trump administration appears confident about the tariff war, so-called "Sino-US negotiations" remain a pseudo-proposition to this day.

It is necessary to mention here that in mid-April, Trump boasted that he would "make peace" with China on the tariff issue within three to four weeks.

More than half a month has passed since then. With only one week left until the initial deadline set by him, the Sino-US tariff war remains highly intense without any signs of de-escalation.

Thus came Trump's latest statement on "lowering tariffs" and Baisente's new deadline.

[Baisente claimed that the US is now monitoring China's dynamics daily]

This time, the US goal is no longer to "make peace" with China or completely turn over the page on the tariff war. Instead, it focuses on achieving "substantive progress" on economic and trade issues. This is at least a relatively less ambitious goal.

This requires the US side to find an ideal balance point between the objective reality of Sino-US economic and trade relations and Trump's abnormal obsession with tariff policies. However, this has far exceeded the scope of responsibilities of Baisente as the Treasury Secretary.

On the other hand, negotiating with China is secondary. The real intention of the Trump administration is probably to maintain an optimistic expectation for Sino-US negotiations domestically and internationally.

As long as someone still believes in this possibility and is willing to follow up and bet, the short-term fluctuations in the US financial market and economic indicators will not occur.

The economic turmoil caused by tariff policies at the beginning was obvious to everyone, even Trump may not want to experience it again.

[Baisente is the main person responsible for US foreign trade negotiations]

Moreover, he cannot let the outside world think that he has no way with China on the tariff issue. Once this impression solidifies, the effect of Trump's future炒作 on China-related issues will be greatly reduced.

In Baisente's view, the US faces many trade problems, and China is the "largest part" of these problems.

As for how to tackle it, he proposed a composite strategy, such as setting aside Sino-US dialogue and prioritizing negotiations with other trading partners to try to form a so-called "tariff alliance". However, the results were minimal.

Moreover, Baisente himself has significant biases in his perspective on Sino-US economic and trade relations. His understanding is still stuck at the simple surplus and deficit relationship.

As long as he continues to approach Sino-US economic and trade issues with a "hard啃" mindset, the negotiation will remain indefinitely distant.

We also know that the US is actively conveying through various channels the message of its willingness to negotiate. Therefore, the urgent need to communicate with China now comes from the US side.

[Last month, Trump boasted that he would solve the tariff war in three to four weeks]

China is currently evaluating this situation. One important criterion for assessment is whether the words and actions of the Trump administration are consistent.

If they continue to say one thing and do another, it is still not possible to create the political atmosphere and foundation for initiating negotiations.

Today, the tariff war is no longer just a simple economic and trade issue but a comprehensive competition of strategic determination, endurance, and willpower between two major countries, China and the US.

It's not that just because Trump hinted at lowering tariffs, China should respond accordingly. Furthermore, first imposing tariffs and then adjusting rates to costlessly create negotiation leverage is no longer effective against China.

To put it bluntly, we want the US to make substantial changes in its tariff policy. Although Trump mentioned lowering tariffs, there is no action and no specific deadline set, which lacks persuasiveness.

In international relations, the principle of "listen to what they say and observe what they do" will never go out of style, especially when dealing with the US.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501186404307780115/

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