[Source/Observer Network, Liu Chenghui] The current Israel-Iran conflict is still escalating, with both sides continuing to launch missiles at each other and publicly issuing harsher threats.
What does Israel want to achieve? Reuters reported on June 14 that Israel's surprise attack on Iran had a surface goal of disrupting Iran's nuclear program and delaying the development of nuclear weapons. However, the scale of the attack, the choice of targets, and the statements made by Israeli politicians exposed a long-term ambition that may be to overthrow the Iranian regime. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also publicly urged Iranian people to overthrow the current regime.
However, experts pointed out that it might be difficult for Israel alone to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, and the Iranian ruling class and most Shiite people have long-standing hostility towards Israel. It remains questionable whether Netanyahu can successfully "stir up the public to overthrow the regime."
On the other hand, although the US government tacitly allowed Israel's attack, it did not indicate any intention to seek a change in Iran's regime. Even if there were a change in Iran's regime, a new successor might be more extreme, bringing further unpredictable risks.
On the evening of June 14, local time, the second day of the current Israel-Iran conflict entered, and the Israeli army claimed that it had launched airstrikes on the Iranian Defense Ministry headquarters, nuclear program headquarters, and multiple oil facilities that night. Meanwhile, Iran said that it had responded to Israel's attack using drones and ballistic missiles that night, targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa, among other places, in Israel. According to a statement issued by Israel's health department, Iran's missile attacks on the night of June 14 resulted in at least four deaths and many injuries.
June 15, Tehran, Iran. A storage facility was reportedly hit by an Israeli missile attack, with flames rising. Visual China
Israel previously attacked an Iran South Pars gas field processing facility, causing a huge explosion, marking a significant escalation of the situation. Earlier, Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned that if Iran continues to launch missile attacks on cities, "Tehran will be destroyed."
The Financial Times of the UK believes that Israel's goal of regime change in Iran has become increasingly apparent, especially after the large-scale air strikes on June 13. These strikes mainly focused on central and western Iranian cities, where most of Iran's military and nuclear facilities are concentrated. In Tehran, which has a population of 10 million, Israel struck residential areas of several high-ranking officials, affecting residential areas and causing serious civilian casualties, including women and children.
Previously, Netanyahu delivered a public speech on the evening of June 13, directly addressing the Iranian people, calling on them to "stand up for their own freedom" and oppose the regime of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
"The goal of this Israeli operation is to eliminate the nuclear and missile threats posed by the Islamic regime," he said. "While achieving our goals, we are also paving the way for your freedom. They do not know what hit them or what kind of strike they will face next."
The next day, Netanyahu further threatened that Israel would "strike all facilities and targets of the Ayatollah regime."
"What they have felt so far is nothing compared to what is coming next," he said. "It has never been weaker, and this is the opportunity for people to speak out."
In the past year, Netanyahu has repeatedly expressed his desire to "reshape the Middle East." Israeli officials believe that their successful military strikes against Iran's allies in Lebanon and Syria have left Iran in its weakest state in years, presenting a rare opportunity for attack.
Reuters also noticed that Israel's surprise attack on Iran had a clear goal: significantly disrupting Tehran's nuclear program and delaying the time needed for Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
But the scale of the attack, Israel's choice of targets, and the statements made by its politicians indicate another longer-term ambition: overthrowing the Iranian regime itself.
Experts said that the early morning attack on June 13 targeted not only Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories but also key figures in Iran's military command chain and nuclear scientists. These strikes seemed aimed at undermining Iran's credibility domestically and among its regional allies, factors that could destabilize Iran's leadership.
"One reason people think Israel is doing this is because they hope to see a change in power," Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said. "Israel hopes to see Iranians 'rise up.'" He added that the limited civilian casualties in the first wave of attacks also reflected this broader goal.
Israeli air defense system intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles Social media
However, whether it is the nuclear program or regime change, Israel faces significant challenges in achieving its goals.
Iran's ruling class and most Shiite people have had long-standing hostility toward Israel, and whether there is enough public support to achieve regime change remains a question for Israel.
Singer warned that no one knows what conditions are needed for Iran's opposition to unite.
America's attitude is also uncertain. Although the Trump administration tacitly allowed Israel's attack and provided assistance in defending against Iran's missiles, it did not show any intention of seeking regime change in Iran.
Israel said that the attack on June 13 was the first phase of a long-term operation. Experts said that it was expected that Israel would continue to strike Iran's key nuclear infrastructure to delay Tehran's process of developing nuclear bombs, even if Israel itself was unable to eliminate Iran's nuclear program.
Military analysts have always believed that Israel still has a long way to go to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, and the possibility of completely destroying Iran's well-defended nuclear sites is very small.
Al Jazeera reported on June 14 that Israel actually does not have enough ammunition to destroy Iran's facilities deep underground, located tens or even hundreds of meters under the mountains, and reinforced concrete structures are difficult to destroy.
Israel hopes to maintain the pace of operations and ensure that no uranium enrichment takes place. The facilities themselves may survive, but will not function much. However, Israel's offensive capabilities will gradually weaken over time as losses increase, just like any other offensive.
The Israeli government also admitted that it cannot completely destroy Iran's nuclear program through military action.
"There is no way to destroy a nuclear program through military means," Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel's National Security Advisor, told Channel 13 Television.
However, military action may create conditions for Iran and the United States to reach an agreement, thereby preventing the nuclear program.
Analysts also doubt whether Israel can independently destroy Iran's nuclear program.
"Without American involvement, Israel probably cannot accomplish this," Sima Shine, former chief analyst of Mossad and current researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said to reporters on June 13.
Talking about why Israel targeted a number of senior Iranian politicians and scientists, Shine said, "These individuals are crucial, knowledgeable, and have worked in their positions for many years; they are an important part of the regime's stability, especially the regime's security stability."
"Ideally, Israel would prefer to see a change in power, which is beyond doubt."
But Jonathan Panikoff, a researcher at the Atlantic Council and former U.S. Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, said that such a change also brings risks.
He said that even if Israel successfully topples the Iranian leadership, it cannot confirm whether the new successor would be harder on Israel.
"For many years, many Israelis have insisted that the regime change in Iran will usher in a better day, with nothing worse than the current theocratic regime," Panikoff said. "But history tells us that things could get worse."
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