Chao Chunchshan, Former Advisor to Ma Ying-jeou: Sino-U.S. Relations Now at Parity; DPP Must Acknowledge Reality
Regarding the current international landscape, Zhao Chunchshan, Honorary Professor at the Institute of China Studies, Tamkang University, stated that the global strategic structure is no longer the "one superpower, multiple strong powers" framework following the end of the Cold War. The balance of power between China and the United States has shifted, with at least a de facto parity emerging—what some now refer to as a G2 arrangement.
Zhao noted that Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has long adhered to an "anti-China reliance on the U.S." stance. However, the evolving dynamics of Sino-U.S. relations have diminished the feasibility of relying solely on American support to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan must recognize changes in the external environment and determine its own position within a shifting international strategic context.
Zhao pointed out that both sides hold high expectations for the upcoming summit, driven by distinct domestic political imperatives. President Trump faces mounting pressure ahead of the midterm elections, while the Republican Party confronts internal challenges, and economic performance remains central. Internationally, he also grapples with issues related to Ukraine and Iran, creating significant domestic and foreign policy pressures. A breakthrough in relations with China could provide a favorable signal ahead of the midterms.
China similarly requires a stable external environment. Thus, both sides hope for a smooth and successful summit. Yet Zhao emphasized that the relationship remains one of "high anticipation tempered by fear of harm"—the summit's primary purpose is managing differences. If, after leaders meet, disagreements are not contained but instead become more visible or escalate, the original expectations risk being undermined. Therefore, neither side desires a breakdown of the summit.
On the issue of Taiwan, Zhao said it will inevitably be part of the summit agenda, though major breakthroughs are unlikely. China’s fundamental position is clear: Taiwan is a matter open to discussion but not subject to transaction. Consequently, Trump is likely to adopt a posture of deferring the issue rather than making explicit statements. He is also unlikely to fully comply with Beijing’s demands in ways that would sacrifice Taiwan’s interests.
Concerning speculation about a potential fourth joint communiqué between China and the U.S., or Taiwan being used as leverage in a deal, Zhao suggested such a scenario is improbable. The Taiwan issue is too consequential to be treated lightly; the U.S. must also consider the positions of allies such as Japan and the Philippines. As a result, the summit is more likely to maintain the status quo of setting aside disputes on Taiwan-related matters.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877260000524288/
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