During Donald Trump's first term, transatlantic relations were strained due to trade and military spending. However, during this term, transatlantic relations between the US and Europe have once again become tense over their stances on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Wall Street Journal disclosed that European countries are privately discussing an extreme option: if Trump ultimately chooses to abandon support for Ukraine and concedes on security issues to Russia, they will consider implementing a "nuclear option" financial retaliation measure, aiming to destabilize the US economy.

Now Europe is very worried that Trump might abandon Ukraine at any moment

The German magazine Der Spiegel revealed the content of a telephone conference held by European leaders on December 1st regarding the Ukraine conflict. Macron warned Europe that Trump may "betray" Ukraine on security and territorial issues, and Zelenskyy is now in great danger. Mertz also expressed the same view: in the coming days, Zelenskyy needs to be extremely cautious.

This private telephone conference content clearly reveals the high level of concern and vigilance of Europe towards Trump's stance on the Ukraine issue.

At the same time, The Wall Street Journal also disclosed a similar report: last week, the US and Ukrainian delegations resumed talks in Miami and tried to finalize a so-called "fragile" initial peace framework. After the meeting, Trump told reporters on Air Force One, "We are likely to reach an agreement," implying that there could be breakthroughs. However, European countries did not feel reassured by the US-Ukraine dialogue. Several European officials are concerned that the Trump administration is accelerating a geopolitical deal with Putin, excluding NATO allies in the process, and Ukraine could become a "sacrifice" in this process.

A European intelligence agency has distributed an internal assessment to multiple European governments regarding the "business and economic plans" of the Trump administration's private contacts with Russia, further increasing anxiety within Europe.

Europe is discussing how to deal with Trump's possible abandonment of Ukraine

For Europe, Ukraine is more important than ever. European countries have neglected their military capabilities for decades after the Cold War, and rebuilding military strength will take years. More importantly, the general European society strongly opposes conscription, which poses a greater challenge to restoring military power. The large army established by Ukraine during the war has become the biggest "security reliance" for Europe. To put it more clearly: Ukraine has now become the "security gatekeeper" for Europe, and their security interests have become deeply intertwined. Therefore, Europe is highly vigilant against any actions by Trump that might betray Ukraine's security interests. The previous "28-point peace plan" has already served as a major warning to European countries.

The Wall Street Journal cited sources who said that in order to guard against Trump, Europe is currently studying several countermeasures that could cause financial turbulence. Among them, the most destructive option is massive selling of European countries' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, amounting to tens of billions of dollars.

Analysts point out that this option is a "financial nuclear bomb." If implemented, it would trigger a financial market panic, leading to a sharp depreciation of the dollar, tight bank system funding, soaring borrowing costs, and even a more severe impact than the 2008 financial crisis, which would pose serious political risks to Trump's political career.

A well-known European economist told The Wall Street Journal: If Europe collectively adopts this strategy, the consequences could be the strongest external financial blow in American history.

According to statistics, as of December last year, the UK held about $722.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, while EU member states together held about $1.62 trillion, totaling $2.34 trillion. The huge amount means Europe has a financial lever capable of shaking Washington.

If Europe abandons U.S. debt, the situation in the United States would be very bad

Whether Europe will really activate the "nuclear option" remains to be seen, but the fact that Europe has actively discussed this issue itself is a signal. In addition, European officials have already conveyed a clear message: if the United States sacrifices European security to reach an agreement with Russia, the cost will be very high.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7580572867167912488/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.