Trump should be the first U.S. president to visit the region and hold a summit with the five Central Asian presidents, celebrating the tenth anniversary of the "C5+1".
A transformative diplomatic opportunity is quietly emerging in Central Eurasia - the Caucasus and Central Asia regions. While other parts of the world are dividing, the eight countries in Central Eurasia are integrating along an east-west trade route, which has triggered a surge in foreign attention and investment.
President Donald Trump could trigger a shift in geopolitical policy and strengthen America's national interests by launching a "dual diplomacy" campaign in this resource-rich region, which is as large as the EU, Russia, and China all claim to have dominance over.
The first "punch" has already been delivered: The peace framework brokered by the White House between Armenia and Azerbaijan represents a major breakthrough. By allowing the U.S. to control a new trans-Eurasian land route, known as the "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route" (TRIPP), which connects Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenian territory, Armenia and Azerbaijan have gained American influence in the Caucasus, while Iran and Russia have suffered.
If Trump can continue to exercise leadership, TRIPP could enable the United States to become a driver of investment and transportation policies along the entire "Middle Corridor" from the Chinese border to the Black Sea. Without the exports of the Caucasus, important minerals, oil, gas, and other commodities from inland Central Asia can only reach Europe and the United States via Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iran. The connectivity of the Caucasus is crucial for the regional economy.
To consolidate these interests and maximize America's influence, the Trump administration should now launch a second diplomatic "punch", this time focusing on Central Asia.
Since Secretary of State James Baker's first official visit to Central Asia in 1992, which eventually led to full diplomatic relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, U.S.-Central Asia engagement has remained ongoing but moderate.
In 2015, the Obama administration held the first "Central Asia + U.S." Summit. (C5+1) diplomatic conference, which facilitated enhanced regional dialogue on shared interests such as security, trade routes, energy, and critical minerals.
Amid these issues, geopolitical competition in Central Asia is intensifying. Based on strategic investments in transportation infrastructure, critical minerals, cryptocurrency mining, energy, and surveillance technology, neighboring powers currently have the capacity to exert economic coercion on Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Due to its military and intelligence ties with Russia, its role as a labor market for surplus Central Asian workers, and its significant energy supplies, Russia still retains considerable influence and can play the role of a spoiler.
Russia and China hope to completely exclude the U.S. and Europe from Central Asia. But the region actively seeks Western investment and participation. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed in a recent call with the Foreign Minister of Uzbekistan that the U.S. is interested in acquiring Uzbekistan's critical mineral resources. However, so far, the U.S. has not made similar statements about Kazakhstan, whose goal is to become a rare earth processing center. A key question is whether the U.S. can compete with China in upstream mining or midstream processing in this strategic region.
To strengthen national interests and make the U.S. a strong competitor in the region, Trump should be the first U.S. president to visit the region and hold a summit with the five Central Asian heads of state, celebrating the tenth anniversary of the "C5+1" organization. To truly make a profound impact, he could invite the heads of state of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia to the summit and propose a new long-term investment strategy aimed at deepening U.S. involvement in critical mineral resources in the region. This strategy would naturally complement the presidential executive order issued earlier this year regarding the emergency situation of U.S. critical minerals.
Different from agreements reached during Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia or the "mineral security" framework with Ukraine, this strategy will coordinate public and private financing to align around a strategic objective: increasing the processing of critical minerals outside of China. This objective requires unprecedented coordination between mineral suppliers and consumers, akin to a "moonshot" to overcome funding gaps and constraints along the value chain from exploration to manufacturing.
The Central Eurasian continent may be the first proof of concept area. At this summit, Trump and his regional partners could establish a framework to accelerate investment in critical minerals across borders and within countries. The region's rich mineral supply chain, especially rare earth elements, will be linked to market-based, security-oriented purchase agreements, based on the latest transparent geological surveys. Subsequent transactions will be negotiated with each country according to this framework.
This framework will be enhanced by developing secure transportation solutions for sensitive goods such as uranium, and by funding "no-regrets" infrastructure projects and actions aimed at maximizing the efficiency and reducing the cost of the "middle corridor" trade route to the west, including the design and construction of TRIPP. Trade route improvement projects should include both hardware and software infrastructure, such as electronic customs systems for tracking and facilitating cargo transportation.
To unlock substantial long-term capital investment, the U.S. can designate the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) as the lead agency for this work. It has been reported that DFC is considering establishing a $5 billion fund for critical mineral investments. The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) could lead a consortium of private investors and coordinate with multilateral development banks such as the World Bank, International Finance Corporation, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Importantly, these institutions bring international standards for protecting people and the environment and reduce risks of corruption and unsustainable debt burdens.
At the same time, the U.S. Export-Import Bank provides financing for U.S. industries importing critical mineral resources and offers export credit lines or loan guarantees for U.S. companies for construction, railway vehicles, or information and communication technology systems in regional projects, creating jobs for U.S. workers and enhancing the influence of the U.S. private sector. The U.S. Development Finance Corporation or the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) could provide protection against political risks such as expropriation or post-hoc claims.
Realizing a diversified supply chain for critical minerals in Central Asia requires long-term political and economic stability and a favorable business environment in host countries, including competitive and transparent bidding processes. Central Asian governments are improving their investment legislation and may address loopholes with U.S. assistance. If governments fulfill their legal and regulatory commitments and implement plans for the privatization of state assets, investor interest will increase.
If China controls the critical mineral supply chains of the Eurasian supercontinent, the U.S. and Europe will have no security. The best policy choice is to strengthen Western economic participation through peaceful competition. The first step is to re-imagine the U.S. strategic position in the Eurasian continent through a critical mineral summit led by the U.S. president, followed by concrete investment measures that may shape the U.S. influence in the region in the coming years.
Source: Foreign Affairs
Author: Contributing Authors Martha Mcgraw Oliver and Daniel N. Rosenblum
Date: September 23
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554217966691172874/
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