Recently, the China-US trade relationship has once again become the focus of global attention. The Ministry of Commerce of China stated that it is assessing the possibility of negotiating tariffs with the US. On May 4th, US President Donald Trump told NBC in an interview that he "would be willing to lower tariffs on Chinese goods at some point," as the current high import tax rates have nearly paralyzed trade between the world's two largest economies. These two pieces of news instantly sparked a wave of discussion in the global media landscape. Prior to this, both sides had been cautiously probing each other and denying any willingness to negotiate publicly. This prolonged "game of chicken" has left the world anxious and tense.
The Trade War Escalates, Who Will Blink First?
Since the trade war began, both sides have engaged in a fierce back-and-forth, unwilling to yield. The US imposed a 145% import tariff on China, attempting to suppress China's economy and hinder its development. In response to the US's unreasonable provocations, China firmly took countermeasures, refusing to allow the US to trample on its own interests. This series of tit-for-tat actions significantly reduced trade between the two major economies, casting a shadow of economic recession over the global economy.
The US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate tariffs with China, but both sides are keenly avoiding appearing too eager during these negotiations. Trump once claimed that talks had already begun, only to be flatly denied by China. The microblog account "Yu Yuan Tan Tian" posted by CCTV directly stated that "China has no need to engage in dialogue with the US," emphasizing that the US is currently more desperate. Experts vividly compared this standoff to a "game of chicken," where like two cars racing towards each other at high speed, the one who turns first is seen as weak. The Trump administration hopes to de-escalate the trade war while saving face, but neither side is willing to make concessions first. After all, the party that initiates tariff negotiations risks being perceived as compromising and losing critical leverage. Therefore, both sides are working hard to portray the other as the more desperate for negotiation. In this deadlock, both are employing a strategy of "constructive ambiguity," using ambiguous language to create opportunities for either side to step down.
Internal Pressures Emerge, Different Situations for Both Sides
In this trade standoff, both sides face considerable internal pressures, but their situations differ greatly.
Trump is trying to quell concerns about a potential US economic downturn. Latest data shows that the US economy contracted in the first quarter since 2022. American consumers and businesses are suffering from tariffs, with consumers facing skyrocketing prices and businesses grappling with rising costs and disrupted supply chains. Retailers in the US, such as Walmart, which rely heavily on Chinese imports, have issued warnings of price hikes and empty shelves. The US government's protectionist policies seem to protect domestic industries but end up hurting the public and businesses, making them pay the price for poor decisions.
On the Chinese side, despite maintaining a tough stance, the trade war has impacted export enterprises to some extent. However, China was prepared and actively adjusted its economic development strategies. By vigorously expanding domestic demand and activating the vast domestic consumer market, and actively exploring emerging markets such as the Belt and Road Initiative and strengthening economic and trade cooperation with countries along the route to reduce dependence on the US market. Facts prove that the Chinese economy has shown great resilience. In 2024, China's total import and export volume with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow. China remains the world's largest goods trade importer and exporter, becoming the main trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions. The stable development of the Chinese economy not only provides solid support for China to cope with the trade war but also injects strong momentum into global economic growth.
Politically, Trump hopes to gain domestic support and consolidate his political position by demonstrating his ability to pressure Beijing. China, on the other hand, aims to show both its domestic audience and the international community that it can make Trump more rational, moderate, and negotiable, highlighting China's image as a major power on the international stage and its firm commitment to fairness and justice. This is like a "double-layered game" where both sides must deal with bilateral negotiations while delivering a "victory report card" domestically.
China Stands Firm, Never Compromising Easily
China has consistently stood firm in defending national interests and global economic stability. The essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, an undeniable fact. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties 46 years ago, bilateral trade and investment cooperation have yielded rich results, with bilateral trade increasing more than 270 times and the stock of two-way investment exceeding $260 billion. More than 70,000 US companies have invested in China, supporting 930,000 jobs in the US through exports to China. Numerous facts indicate that cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both.
The US practice of unilateralism and protectionism not only damages bilateral economic and trade relations but also disrupts the stability of global industrial and supply chains, hindering global economic recovery, and has been widely opposed by the international community. The US fabricated false narratives such as the "unfair competition theory" as excuses for imposing tariffs on China, completely ignoring facts. China always practices the concept of free trade, strictly abides by WTO rules and commitments upon accession, continuously expands autonomous opening-up, strives to build a world-class business environment that is market-oriented, rule-based, and internationalized, actively aligns with international high-standard economic and trade rules, and treats foreign and domestic enterprises fairly. China's overall tariff level is 7.3%, lower than its WTO accession commitment and close to the average of developed countries.
China has the confidence and capability to respond to US trade pressure. With a large economic scale, a complete industrial system, and continuous innovation capabilities, China occupies an important position in the global industrial and supply chain. China accelerates self-research and development in cutting-edge technology fields; even if the US builds "small yards and high walls," it cannot stop China's momentum in technological development. For example, in the chip field, Chinese enterprises have increased research and development investments and achieved a series of important breakthroughs. Meanwhile, China actively expands a network of high-standard free trade areas globally, having signed 22 free trade agreements with 29 countries and regions, fully implements the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and actively promotes joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), continuously expanding the space for external economic and trade cooperation.
Glimmer of Hope in Negotiations, Yet the Road Ahead is Long
So far, the US has not denied China's claim that the US has attempted contact for negotiations, which may mean that some form of contact has indeed occurred, and there is still a possibility of reaching a compromise. However, the initiation of negotiations does not mean that China-US relations will stabilize immediately. Past "stances" suggest that negotiations may require some time before truly entering the phase of "seeking common ground." It is likely to remain in a stalemate, watching who makes the first substantive concession.
However, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, China will continue to adhere to its principles and bottom line. China welcomes negotiations with the US on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, and win-win, to jointly resolve trade disputes, but it will never yield under threats or pressure. China hopes the US can recognize reality, abandon unilateralism and protectionism, and return to the right track of equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation. Only then can the China-US economic and trade relationship return to a healthy and stable development path, bringing benefits to people of both countries and contributing to global economic growth.
China-US tariff negotiations affect the entire world, not only concerning the economic interests of both countries but also influencing the direction of the global economy. We look forward to both sides finding solutions with a rational and pragmatic attitude, allowing the global economy to emerge from the shadow of the trade war and return to a stable development path. Before that, China will continue to firmly defend its own rights and interests, demonstrating the responsibility and wisdom of a major country in this trade storm.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500767471320269312/
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