【By Observer News, Zhang Jingjuan】As the U.S. military actions against Iran continue to escalate, Washington's strategic dilemma is gradually exposed.

The American Conservative, a well-known conservative media in the United States, published an article on the 8th stating that the long-term military entanglement between the U.S. and Iran is continuously consuming the U.S.'s limited strategic resources, constantly depleting its missile arsenal, and ultimately weakening its deterrence capabilities against China, Russia, and North Korea.

The article stated that after the breakdown of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program under the Trump administration, multiple rounds of military strikes were launched against Iran. Although President Trump claimed this conflict might last "four weeks," he later changed his statement to "no time limit," but the reality on the battlefield is far more severe: the U.S.'s limited resources are rapidly being depleted, and each additional day of war will consume more scarce missiles, which require hundreds of millions of dollars and several years to replenish.

The article believes that Washington's goals include weakening Iran's military capabilities, reducing oil flows to China, and pushing Tehran to establish a more submissive new regime.

Among these, "regime change" is most likely to drag the war into a prolonged quagmire. To achieve this goal, air strikes alone are not enough; ground military operations must be supplemented, either by a U.S.-led invasion or by an anti-government uprising among the Iranian people and their army.

However, the reality is that the Iranian people are not armed, and any anti-government revolution can only rely on defections within the Iranian military, but so far, the Iranian military has remained firmly loyal to the current regime.

Notably, the spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Naeini, said on the 8th that Iran has stockpiled large-scale weapons including heavy missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, various types of drones, and attack ships, capable of dealing with a widespread and prolonged war without worrying about it.

Naeini said that the Iranian armed forces have the capability to sustain at least six months of high-intensity warfare at the current pace. The missiles currently used mainly belong to the first and second generations. In the coming days, Iran will adopt new attack methods, using advanced missiles with longer ranges and less used, leading to more severe and targeted attacks on enemies.

On March 8, 2026, in Tehran, Iran, the Shahran refinery was bombed as the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continued. IC photo

U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel said last week (February 2) that the military action against Iran would not last too long, like in Iraq, "not an endless war."

"This is a positive signal, and the American public should also demand the government not to send ground troops, but the war objectives of 'regime change' or 'regime adjustment' still raise concerns," the article said. Such objectives pose a threat to the survival of the Iranian government, meaning that the Iranian government has little left to lose, and thus will fight longer and more fiercely.

Iranian President Pezeshkian clearly stated on the 8th that Iran has never and will never yield to "bullying, oppression, and aggression," "never allowing enemies to occupy even an inch of land." He emphasized that Iran's armed forces and militias have been deployed nationwide, and if any country attempts to attack and invade Iran, Iran will be forced to respond.

The article believes that what Washington can do now is passively hope that part of the Iranian military will mutiny, then hope that the resulting civil war does not cause unexpected regional chaos. But relying on luck is not a strategy.

But the reality is that the son of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, has been elected as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Although he has never held an official position in the Iranian government, nor possessed the highest religious title like his father, he has close relations with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, holds a significant position in Iran's political and security system, and has played a major behind-the-scenes role, acting as his father's "gatekeeper" with considerable influence.

Mojtaba Khamenei has previously been sanctioned by the U.S., and Trump has repeatedly opposed his succession as the Supreme Leader, calling the result "unacceptable," while the Israeli Defense Forces have also threatened to "hunt down" the successor of Khamenei.

Iran's main power centers have now quickly rallied around Mojtaba Khamenei. The Assembly of Experts, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, the Speaker of the Islamic Parliament, and the current head of Iran's security affairs, Ali Larijani, have all expressed support or pledged allegiance to the new Supreme Leader of Iran.

CNN pointed out that the swift pledge of allegiance from Iran's political and military circles seems to demonstrate Iran's stability and continuity amid the death of the long-term leader Khamenei and the ongoing war with the U.S. and Israel.

The article claims that regardless of whether a new nuclear agreement is reached, the U.S. can and should declare victory as soon as possible. Currently, Iran's military strength has been damaged, senior officials have died in attacks, and the nuclear program may be delayed for years. The U.S. should stop and refocus on China, Russia, and North Korea. "Save our offensive missiles and defensive interceptors for future needs; let the remnants of the Iranian war become a warning to potential adversaries. Otherwise, we will face the risk of exhausting key weapons, which could have been used to defend our bases and forces in other regions."

The cost of continuing the war is clear. From the perspective of weapon costs, the PAC-3 interception missile of the Patriot system costs about $4 million per unit, the Navy's Standard-2 and Standard-6 missiles cost about $200,000 and $400,000 respectively, and the Standard-3 missile costs as much as $28 million. The Tomahawk cruise missile costs about $1.3 million per unit.

More importantly, the production cycle of these weapons lasts 2 to 3 years, and to fully replenish the consumed arsenal, it may take more than 5 years. These costs do not even include the casualties of U.S. personnel, as well as the operating costs of every ship and aircraft, including parts, fuel, supplies, and maintenance.

In fact, the U.S. ammunition reserves have already run low. Reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2023 and the Heritage Foundation in 2024 show that the U.S. has significantly lower levels of key categories of ammunition than required for large-scale conflicts.

The article claims that China, Russia, and North Korea are closely monitoring the depletion of U.S. ammunition reserves. Once they believe that the U.S.'s high-tech weapons have reached a state of "no bullets to shoot," the so-called "red lines" will become meaningless paper.

The article finally wrote that any rational policy toward Iran must balance the preservation of the weapons needed to deter China, Russia, and North Korea. If the U.S. insists on lingering in the war in Iran, depleting key weapon reserves, it will eventually completely drain its strategic strength when China, Russia, and North Korea focus on its weaknesses. At present, the U.S. government should carefully weigh the risks of prolonging the war. Once a decision is made incorrectly, the cost of the fire that started in the Middle East will far exceed the Middle East itself.

This article is an exclusive piece from Observer News, and it cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7615098121676177960/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.