Reference News, March 17 report: According to the World Press Syndicate website on March 14, previously 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, only a few ships can now successfully pass through.

Now, with reports that Iran has laid mines in this narrow passage, the possibility of the strait being closed for several days or even months is no longer just a hypothetical scenario.

The shockwaves have already swept across the global energy market, but the most direct and dangerous consequences of a prolonged closure may appear on our plates. After all, the Strait of Hormuz is not only a route for oil tankers, but also a vital artery of the global food system. Key food products—including wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugar, and animal feed—pass through this strait on their way to Gulf countries; farmers around the world also rely on fertilizers and fuels transported from here.

Gulf countries that are heavily dependent on imported food are particularly vulnerable. Supplies of grains, rice, animal feed, and cooking oil depend on open waterways and continuous international transport.

In recent years, many Gulf countries have taken measures to strengthen their food security systems, expanding strategic reserves and investing in domestic production. They have also explored alternative shipping routes, with some cargo transported by land or through ports that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, such as the Jeddah Islamic Port on the Red Sea coast.

Although these measures have strengthened resilience, they cannot fully offset the impact of a long-term blockade of the Gulf. In Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, about 70% of food is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization database, the total population of these countries is approximately 100 million, and to compensate for the interruption of imports, about 191 million pounds (about 8,677 million kilograms) of food would need to be delivered to the region daily.

Therefore, supplying goods to the blocked Gulf region will require an unprecedented humanitarian effort, possibly through contested airspace. By comparison, the United Nations World Food Programme provided 15 million pounds of food daily in 2024 to 81 million people in 71 countries.

The report states that a complete blockade would harm Iran as much as its Arab neighbors. Disruption of maritime trade would squeeze the country from both ends, restricting energy exports while increasing the cost of imported food products such as wheat, rice, animal feed, and vegetable oils.

In recent years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up global grain, fertilizer, and fuel prices, significantly worsening food insecurity.

Due to the impacts of climate change and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global food system is under increasing pressure.

The further disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching effects beyond the Gulf region. From South Asia to sub-Saharan Africa, even in Europe and the United States, farmers around the world rely on stable supplies of fertilizers and fuels. Natural gas is a key raw material for producing nitrogen fertilizer, which is the cornerstone of modern agriculture, helping crop yields reach record highs.

It is estimated that 30% to 40% of global nitrogen fertilizer transactions pass through this strait.

Disruptions in the transportation of food, fuel, and fertilizers could drive up prices within weeks or months, while another resource could face risks within days—the water. If this conflict pollutes the seawater of the Gulf or shuts down desalination plants, the consequences would be catastrophic.

The risks are already very severe. Last week, Bahrain and Iran, which itself suffers from serious water shortages, reported that desalination plants were attacked. If intentional, such attacks would be considered war crimes under international law, as destroying or polluting these facilities would immediately threaten the lives of millions of people.

For decades, international security efforts in the Middle East have focused on preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction. However, whether through mines or ongoing military conflicts, closing the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global food and energy systems and trigger regional water crises, causing similar levels of harm to civilians. The conflicting parties and the broader international community must do everything possible to prevent such outcomes. (Translated by Ge Xuele)

Original source: toutiao.com/article/7618092745122415155/

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